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1851. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: No Time for Obituaries

Author:
Kacper Rękawek
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the oldest socio-political movement active in Egypt. Its members and structures are now undergoing one of the most severe crackdowns in its history, at the hands of an Egyptian government that constituted itself in the aftermath of a popular revolt followed by a coup against a short period of MB rule in 2013. The MB, however, although dispersed and fragmented, is still not defeated, and faces options related to its future political trajectory. This paper discusses these options and concludes that the MB is most likely to ready itself for a “long struggle” scenario that would amount to waiting out the period of repression and reconstituting itself on a bottom-up basis.

1852. Potential for Cooperation: Polish and Czech Standpoints on the Banking Union

Author:
Tomas Profant
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Czech and Polish banking systems are similar in many aspects, such as the predominance of euro area banks in the market and a strong banking supervisory authority. These common features of banking systems translate to similar Czech and Polish positions towards the Banking Union. Their main proposals are to include the specificity of so-called host countries and to maintain the strong position of national supervisory authorities. Although Poland and the Czech Republic will have more reasons to sign up to the Banking Union if they join the euro, these countries should continue to stress the importance of maintaining financial independence between parent banks abroad and their branches and subsidiaries in Poland or the Czech Republic. These countries should promote their monitoring systems as effective methods of providing financial security

1853. Can You Spare Some Food? An Assessment of Russia’s Search for Replacements of Embargoed States

Author:
Patryk Toporowski
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
By introducing a one-year embargo on the import of some food and agricultural products, Russia will have to substitute old channels for new ones on an unprecedented scale. With the exception of Belarus, there are few options to increase imports from suppliers close to Russia’s biggest cities. Within the country’s broader neighbourhood, China and Turkey offer some potential, whereas Latin America would be considered a more distant source for food. However, the change in trade patterns would have its price. Not only will Russia risk growing inflation but also it will increase its dependency on China, which can settle for good Moscow’s role as a minor partner of Beijing.

1854. Unaided Refugees Make ISIS Stronger: Europe and the Worst Humanitarian Crisis of the 21st Century

Author:
Ana Uzelac and Patrycja Sasnal
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The worst humanitarian crisis of this century so far is unfolding daily in Europe's closest neighbourhood. Some 10 million Syrians and Iraqis have been displaced by sectarian conflicts over the past three years, and are living suspended lives in camps or makeshift shelters across the Middle East. It is as if all of Austria or Hungary was forced out of their homes. The fate of displaced Syrians and Iraqis is not only a moral dilemma for Europeans, it is a future security threat in the making. If abandoned and unassisted they risk becoming radicalised in the future, creating a potential recruitment and support base for anti-European extremism. Although the EU, and especially its better-off Member States, have already done a lot to assist the region with the refugee flow, response to the crisis should be expanded further, tailored and diversified. It should also be shouldered equitably by all EU members, in proportion to their size and national income. This crisis is too big and its consequences too far-reaching for any EU member to opt out.

1855. Institutions of the Russian fiscal federalism: 20 years of evolution

Author:
Elena Jarocinska
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this brief, Elena Jarocinska summarizes the main thrust of Russian federal fiscal institutions and discusses their specific features. She describes the evolution of federal fiscal regulations since the establishment of the Russian federal state. As a conclusion, she offers the following policy recommendations: tax autonomy of subnational governments which is currently very limited should be increased; federal aid should be further formalized and made more transparent; regulations should not be changed from year to year to provide for a more stable environment; and subnational interests should be better protected at the institutional level.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Reform, Tax Systems, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Trade, and Post-Socialist Economies
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

1856. Future scenarios for the development of the European labour force

Author:
Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The future size and quality of the European labour force are important production factors for future economic growth in the region. The performance of many systems such as social security and health depends on the population of future potential tax payers. Older workers are an important and increasing share of the employment in Europe. Due to lower fertility and longer life expectancy, today, a larger than ever share of the population is over 50. Eurostat projections show that the share of people between the ages of 50 and 74 in the population aged 20-74 will increase in the EU27 countries from the current 40 per cent to 47 per cent in 2050. However, countries differ in terms of elderly activity. Existing studies show that this is related to various factors, including labour market institutions. As demographic ageing is expected to continue in the future, it is important to know more about these factors in order to recommend policies that could be efficient for the development of future labour markets and the economy as a whole. The aim of the described part of the project was to assess the impact of ageing on the labour market, especially on the structure of the labour force and labour productivity. We looked at this from various angles. First, we examined it via the determinants of the transition from work to retirement (see: Riedel and Hofer, 2013) with a broader analysis of non-labour market activities at older ages (Styczyńska et al., 2013). Then, we tried to answer the question about how individual productivity changes with age in different countries and if lifelong learning can contribute to higher labour productivity in the future (Ruzik-Sierdzińska et al., 2013). Finally, we looked at the demand for labour in the perspective of ageing societies, i.e. at employers' policies, attitudes and behaviours towards older workers and retirement (van Dalen et al., 2013).
Topic:
Demographics, Markets, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and European Union

1857. Gender and Political Representation in Botswana

Author:
Keneilwe S. Mooketsane
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this policy brief is to examine the factors influencing the level of participation of women in the electoral process in Botswana. It compares such participation with other Southern African jurisdictions and further explores the legal, institutional, economic, political, and cultural factors that influence such participation. Women in Botswana are poorly represented in decision making bodies such as parliament and cabinet where national socio-economic decisions are made and national priorities set.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Politics, Elections, Women, and Political structure
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1858. Closing banks to the corrupt: the role of due diligence and peps

Author:
Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
People in positions of power — often called Politically-Exposed Persons (PEPs) — may abuse their entrusted role for their own personal gain, feeding grand corruption. Banks provide one of the stopping places for these ill-gotten monies. Until now, financial institutions and their regulatory authorities have failed to prevent them from being a safe place for the corrupt. Now is the time to close this loophole.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, International Trade and Finance, and Reform

1859. Regulating luxury investments: What dirty money can't buy

Author:
Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
Most international standards and law enforcement agencies focus their efforts on fighting money laundering by banks and financial institutions. However, several non-financial sectors, such as real estate and luxury goods, are extremely vulnerable to illicit financial flows. Now is the time to clean up the sector and close this loophole for the corrupt.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, International Trade and Finance, and Reform

1860. Leaving the corrupt at the door: from denial of entry to passport sales

Author:
Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
For some people national borders constitute an insurmountable barrier. For others, they represent a comfortable way to hide ill-gotten wealth and to escape accountability for their actions. Now is the time to close the legal loopholes that allow corrupt individuals to elude justice for themselves and their money.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, and Reform