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1711. Next steps toward a final deal with Iran

Author:
Steven Blockmans and Luigi Scazzieri
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On January 20th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had been implementing its commitments as part of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) agreed by the E3+3 in Geneva on November 24th of last year. In particular, the Agency confirmed that Iran had not installed new centrifuges, that it had stopped enriching uranium above 5%, that it had disabled connections between cascades being used to enrich up to 20%, and that it had begun the process of diluting half of its stockpile of 20%, while the other half is to be converted to oxide over the next six months. Over the next six months, the IAEA will continue to monitor Iranian enrichment, and activities at Arak, Fordow and Natanz. Immediately following the IAEA announcement, the US and EU suspended some of the sanctions currently imposed on Iran. Sanctions relief, quantified at $7 billion, comprises both the suspension of some sanctions and the repatriation of $4.2 billion of oil revenues in tranches.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

1712. EU-Turkey Relations: Turning vicious circles into virtuous ones

Author:
Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Concerns about the deterioration of democracy in Turkey are not new: the trials over the 2003 „ Sledgehammer ‟ alleged coup plan (2010-12) and over the ‟ Ergenekon ‟ secret organisation (2008-13) broke the military‟s influence over politics, but were widely criticised because of their reliance on secret witnesses and disputes over evidence. Ironically, their outcome has recently been challenged by Prime Minister Erdoğan himself, who has disowned the trials now that the judiciary has the AK Party in its sights. International concern was also stirred by the violent crackdown on the countrywide protests of May/June 2013. Unrest then was triggered by the planned redevelopment of Istanbul‟s Gezi Park in May 2013, but developed into a wider movement critical of government corruption, increasing restrictions on freedom of speech and concerns about the erosion of secularism. Protests simmered on through September, winding down in autumn and winter only to reignite in March of this year.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

1713. Myanmar's Military: Back to the Barracks?

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, has been the dominant institution in the country for most of its post-independence history. After decades of military rule, it began the shift to a semi-civilian government. A new generation of leaders in the military and in government pushed the transition far further and much faster than anyone could have imagined. Major questions remain, however, about the Tatmadaw's intentions, its ongoing involvement in politics and the economy, and whether and within what timeframe it will accept to be brought under civilian control. Transforming from an all-powerful military to one that accepts democratic constraints on its power will be an enormous challenge.
Topic:
Governance and Reform
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

1714. Beyond Haiti: Enhancing Latin American Military and Police Contributions to UN Peacekeeping

Author:
Bianca Selway
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
With fifteen UN peacekeeping missions already in operation and another in the Central African Republic on the horizon, UN peacekeeping continues to be in high demand. Today, DPKO deploys more than 83,000 troops, 13,000 police, and 2,000 observers, contributed voluntarily by member states. A majority of these are provided by African and South Asian member states, which together provide 74 percent of the UN's uniformed personnel. Latin America has a longstanding history of participating in UN peacekeeping, stretching back more than fifty years to some of the earliest peacekeeping operations. At present, Latin America contributes almost 7 percent of all UN troops and nearly 2 percent of UN police. Two Latin American states occupy spots in the group of top twenty uniformed contributors: Uruguay with a total of 2,164 uniformed personnel and Brazil with 1,755. Latin American contributions are predominantly military contributions (as opposed to police) to the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), with support to missions in sub-Saharan Africa amounting to less than 2 percent of the total uniformed deployments to the region.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Foreign Aid, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Brazil, United Nations, and Latin America

1715. A Failure to Cooperate? Raising the Risks and Challenges of Exiting Unconventional Monetary Policies

Author:
Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos, and Samantha St. Amand
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Central banks (and policy makers more generally) should seek a global consensus before implementing policies that may have global repercussions. The global economy can only become more resilient to shocks when there is greater central bank cooperation. The G20 is a natural venue to promote cooperation and to help the global economy return to stronger economic growth, but other forums may also be appropriate. The maintenance of financial stability is a common resource and should be treated as such. Excessive reliance on sovereignty is counterproductive and contains the seeds of the next crisis.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis

1716. Shifting IMF Policies since the Arab Uprisings

Author:
Bessma Momani and Dustyn Lanz
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In response to the Arab uprisings in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, the IMF has changed its perspective on the social outcomes of its economic policy advice. The Fund now explicitly advocates inclusive growth, reduced inequality and increased attention to, and spending on, health and education services. Although this is a welcome transition, there is still room for improvement. In particular, the Fund could strengthen its commitment to the social dimensions of public policy by delivering more specific, tangible policy advice for countries to achieve inclusive growth, reduce inequality and improve health and education outcomes. More diverse expertise, achieved through wider recruitment of staff, would help the IMF achieve these goals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

1717. Creating Sustainable Peacekeeping Capability in Africa

Author:
Daniel Hampton
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Over 60,000 African troops from 39 different nations serve in peace operations worldwide. Maintaining African peacekeeping capability requires an ongoing training process to sustain the skill proficiency of troop contingents for rapid deployment and crisis response. Continued reliance on international trainers undercuts the institutionalization of African peacekeeping capability. An African-led training model would not only be more sustainable but would draw on the relevant, practical experience that African peacekeepers have gained over the years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

1718. Guinée-Bissau: les élections, et après?

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le 13 avril 2014, deux ans et un jour après le coup d'Etat qui a empêché la victoire du Parti africain pour l'indépendance de la Gu inée et du Cap-Vert (PAIGC) à l'élection présidentielle de mars-avril 2012, au terme d'une série de reports et de crises, la Guinée-Bissau va enfin tenir ses élections. Ce s élections législatives et présidentielles ne résultent pas d'un consensus endogène fort. Elles auront lieu parce que le pays est au bord de la banqueroute et que la communauté internationale, moins divisée qu'au moment du coup d'Etat, a exercé une forte pression. Elles ne sont qu'une première étape dans la transition, et les problèmes de fond qui minent la stabilité demeurent. Les scrutins ne manqueront pas de bousculer des intérêts établis et de mettre en jeu l'équilibre du pays. Le nouveau pouvoir devra favoriser le consensus et le pluralisme politique. La communauté internationale, quant à elle, doit rester attentive dans la période cruciale qui s'engage.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Africa

1719. Working for the Many: Public services fight inequality

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Economic inequality – the skewed distribution of income and wealth – is soaring. Oxfam's own research has found that the 85 richest individuals in the world have as much wealth as the poorest half of the global population. Economic inequality is also putting lives on the line – more than 1.5 million lives are lost each year due to high income inequality in rich countries alone. A recent study of 93 countries estimated that reducing the income share of the richest 20 per cent by just one percentage point could save the lives of 90,000 infants each year. Estimates also show that failing to tackle inequality will add hundreds of billions of dollars to the price tag of ending poverty, putting the achievement of any new post-2015 poverty goals in jeopardy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Poverty, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
India

1720. A Dangerous Diversion: Will the IFC's flagship health PPP bankrupt Lesotho's Ministry of Health?

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Queen 'Mamohato Memorial Hospital, which opened in October 2011, was built to replace Lesotho's old main public hospital, the Queen Elizabeth II (QE II) Hospital, in the capital, Maseru. It is the first of its kind in Africa – and in any low-income country – because all the facilities were designed, built, financed, and operated under a public – private partnership (PPP) that includes delivery of all clinical services. The PPP was developed under the advice of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector investment arm of the World Bank Group. The promise was that the PPP would provide vastly improved, high-quality healthcare services for the same annual cost as the old public hospital.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa