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161. Next steps toward a final deal with Iran

Author:
Steven Blockmans and Luigi Scazzieri
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On January 20th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had been implementing its commitments as part of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) agreed by the E3+3 in Geneva on November 24th of last year. In particular, the Agency confirmed that Iran had not installed new centrifuges, that it had stopped enriching uranium above 5%, that it had disabled connections between cascades being used to enrich up to 20%, and that it had begun the process of diluting half of its stockpile of 20%, while the other half is to be converted to oxide over the next six months. Over the next six months, the IAEA will continue to monitor Iranian enrichment, and activities at Arak, Fordow and Natanz. Immediately following the IAEA announcement, the US and EU suspended some of the sanctions currently imposed on Iran. Sanctions relief, quantified at $7 billion, comprises both the suspension of some sanctions and the repatriation of $4.2 billion of oil revenues in tranches.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

162. A Worst Practices Guide to Insider Threats: Lessons from Past Mistakes

Author:
Matthew Bunn and Scott D. Sagan
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
Insider threats are perhaps the most serious challenges that nuclear security systems face. All of the cases of theft of nuclear materials where the circumstances of the theft are known were perpetrated either by insiders or with the help of insiders; given that the other cases involve bulk material stolen covertly without anyone being aware the material was missing, there is every reason to believe that they were perpetrated by insiders as well. Similarly, disgruntled workers from inside nuclear facilities have perpetrated many of the known incidents of nuclear sabotage. The most recent example of which we are aware is the apparent insider sabotage of a diesel generator at the San Onofre nuclear plant in the United States in 2012; the most spectacular was an incident three decades ago in which an insider placed explosives directly on the steel pressure vessel head of a nuclear reactor and then detonated them. While many such incidents, including the two just mentioned, appear to have been intended to send a message to management, not to spread radioactivity, they highlight the immense dangers that could arise from insiders with more malevolent intent. As it turns out, insiders perpetrate a large fraction of thefts from heavily guarded non-nuclear facilities as well. Yet organizations often find it difficult to under - stand and protect against insider threats. Why is this the case?
Topic:
Security and Nuclear Weapons

163. EU cyber-defence: a work in progress

Author:
Neil Robinson
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The EU's cyber defence agenda provides an opportunity to ask questions about what the EU could do in terms of setting security priorities. Furthermore, as a possible area for cooperation, cyber defence shares with military air logistics the peculiarity of being a common capability which does not require explicit war-like conditions to demonstrate its utility. Indeed, the diversity and complexity of the threat environment – coupled with challenges of attribution – suggests the opposite: military cyber defence capabilities might offer better value for money in peacetime rather than in times of war.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

164. Wildlife Poaching: Africa's Surging Trafficking Threat

Author:
Bradley Anderson and Johan Jooste
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Spikes in the prices of ivory and rhino horn have propelled an escalation in killings of African elephants and rhinoceroses. Without urgent corrective measures, extinction of these populations is likely. This is not just a wildlife poaching problem but part of a global illicit trafficking network that is empowering violent groups and co-opting some elements of Africa's security sector. An immediate bolstering of Africa's wildlife ranger network is needed to slow the pace of elephant and rhino killings and buy time. Addressing this threat over the longer term will require dramatically reducing the demand for these animal parts, especially within Asian markets.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

165. A Window of Opportunity for Somalia: Will External Actors' Peacebuilding Frameworks Help or Hinder the Effort?

Author:
Sarah Hearn and Thomas Zimmerman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
We initiated a project to study external actors' peacebuilding frameworks in Somalia. The purpose is to ascertain whether and how the international community is applying recent international learning on peacebuilding, and is able to forge coherent and effective approaches to helping countries pursue peaceful political settlements.
Topic:
Security, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

166. The role of the European Union in the world

Author:
Eneko Landaburu
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Despite the hopes raised by the most recent Treaties, the Lisbon Treaty in particular, the European Union has been unable to strengthen, let alone develop its role on the international stage. A couple of weeks away from the European Parliament elections, we need to ask ourselves what can reasonably be done by the upcoming Parliament to ensure that significant progress is made with respect to the EU's foreign policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

167. The Shape of the Cyber Danger

Author:
Lucas Kello
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
There is little consensus among scholars and practitioners on how to confront or even characterize the contemporary cyber threat. The range of conceivable cyber conflict is poorly understood by strategic thinkers, and it is unclear how conventional security mechanisms, such as deterrence and collective defense, apply to this phenomenon. The cyber revolution's strategic quandaries need urgent resolution.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Military Strategy

168. Indian perspectives on the Ukrainian crisis and Russia's annexation of Crimea

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The statement by India's national security adviser on March 6th 2014 referring to "legitimate" Russian interest in Ukraine was unsurprisingly criticised in the West, but appreciated in Russia. Most observers missed other important elements in the statement: reference to Ukraine's internal issues; recognition that both Russian and other interests were involved; and emphasis on a peaceful settlement, reconciliation and negotiation. Debate on the Ukrainian crisis has been largely absent in India due to preoccupation with national elections, widespread consensus that Russia is a dependable "friend of India", and sneaking admiration of President Putin for his "decisiveness" in promoting Russia's interests and open defiance of the West. While China and Pakistan have deployed historical/ethno-cultural arguments to dispute Indian sovereignty over territories that India considers its own, India has consistently rejected claims to alter the territorial status quo on grounds of kinship across sovereign borders.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, India, and Asia

169. After Ukraine – NATO should stay vigilant on the Middle East

Author:
Jakob Aarøe Jørgensen
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Leading up to the NATO Summit in September, the crisis in Ukraine has vindicated some NATO members' fears of Russia. This could cause NATO to revert to a narrow focus on Article 5 defense. Yet, other issues still pose threats and NATO should remain vigilant towards security challenges from the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East

170. Mosul Security Crisis: A Chance to Break Iraq's Political Logjam

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The loss of government control in a major city may be just the wakeup call Iraqi politicians need to embrace a more ambitious reconciliation agenda.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East