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2. The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics
- Author:
- Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum – which split the country between Leave and Remain, town and city, old and young. Many people had lent their votes to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives for cultural reasons, in spite of the fact that they were closer to the opposition Labour Party on economic issues. Covid-19 might cause a rethink, as voters expect competence from the government. Counterintuitively, both Leavers and Remainers are open to a leftist domestic agenda and greater cooperation with international partners – issues on which Labour is normally strong. Covid-19 has caused voters to take a dimmer view of previously touted post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China. They think more highly of countries such as Germany. The battleground will be ‘Red Wall defectors’ – voters who gave Johnson his 2019 general election landslide but who are reassessing what matters to them after Brexit. A politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers could disappear as quickly as it appeared – but the Conservatives may nevertheless attempt to stoke the divisions of 2016 that secured them Brexit.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
3. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations
- Author:
- Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia
4. Advancing human rights in Asia through trade after Brexit
- Author:
- Katarina Schwarz, Todd Landman, and Katrina Peake
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- How can the UK best protect human rights in Asia, an area historically weak in protecting and promoting human rights, when it comes to securing new trade deals after exiting the European Union (EU)? This policy brief assesses potential pathways for the UK to protect human rights in Asia through trade after exiting the EU, accounting for the specific challenges of advancing human rights in the region. It draws on existing practice, with a focus on the EU, to make suggestions for future UK trade policy through both unilateral and bilateral arrangements.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Brexit, Trade, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Asia
5. How can the NHS recruit and retain migrant nurses after Brexit?
- Author:
- Georgia Spiliopoulos and Stephen Timmons
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Non-British nurses working for the National Health Service (NHS) face a number of challenges, which must be addressed in the context of ongoing Brexit negotiations. Since the 2016 Referendum result to leave the European Union (EU), the number of EU nurses registering with the Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) plummeted in 2017 by 96% – from 1,304 EU nurses registering with the NMC in July 2016 to just 46 in April 2017 (Siddique, 2017). This drop in numbers is also linked with the number of EU nurses leaving the UK (Matthews-King, 2017). A recent NMC report (2019) published a 1% increase, for the first time in three years, in the number of new nurse registrants, for the period between April 2018 and March 2019. This increase translates into 6,000 nurses from the UK, EU and overseas. These numbers, while encouraging, reflect the changes in international recruitment from EU and non-EU countries, and importantly the impact of Brexit on the retention of both EU and non-EU nurses. This paper recommends measures to support the retention of these nurses.
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, Brexit, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, and Asia
6. Prospects for a closer relationship with Indonesia after Brexit
- Author:
- Jacqueline Hicks
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- As the United Kingdom considers post-Brexit trade opportunities outside the European Union, this briefing looks at the potential for greater cooperation with Indonesia. It finds that there are some sectoral and trade and investment opportunities between the two countries. Developing a long-term strategy that signals commitment is key to participation in Indonesia’s promising growth trajectory. The UK can mitigate its reduced bargaining power outside the EU by providing targeted, practical trade facilitation measures in exchange for increased investment opportunities. Becoming an agile and dynamic economic partner in comparison with the EU’s bureaucratic approach chimes well with the small business background of Indonesia’s President Widodo.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Economic growth, Trade, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, Indonesia, and Asia
7. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit
- Author:
- Sarah Hall
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Britain, China, and United Kingdom
8. The United Kingdom's Belt and Road Initiative strategy after Brexit
- Author:
- Benjamin Barton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- As China’s President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become one of the world’s most active infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development in emerging markets across the world. This policy is unlikely to change due to the importance that the Chinese government attributes to the BRI, with it now being formally enshrined into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) constitution. For the UK, the BRI stakes are high; it matters both domestically and internationally. It is impacting the wellbeing of countries that are of strategic importance to the UK. It also contributes to the emerging geopolitical rivalry on infrastructure financing. The government should explore bilateral and multilateral venues to seek to cooperate with China on the BRI by developing a UK BRI strategy post-Brexit.
- Topic:
- Development, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Britain, China, United Kingdom, and Asia
9. Countdown for Brexit: What to Expect for UK, EU and Turkey?
- Author:
- Burak Cop
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- As the most divisive issue of the British politics since 2016, the Brexit phenomenon continues to shake the two biggest mainstream parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party is affected by the tension between the Soft and Hard Brexiters, but the divisiveness Brexit brings about hits Labour even worse. A No Deal or Hard Brexit is likely to strengthen Scotland’s bid for independence. Scotland’s probable departure from the UK will surely be encouraging for other secessionist movements in Europe, however it should be noted that the window of opportunity Brexit opens for Scottish nationalists constitutes a rather exceptional case in Europe. One could argue that the “Norway model” for post-Brexit UK could be valid for Turkey too, but that model aims to bring about a deeper integration than what the proponents of “EU-Turkey exclusive partnership” prescribe for Turkey.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and Secession
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, North America, Scotland, and European Union
10. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios
- Author:
- Larissa Brunner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre
- Abstract:
- With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland