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5711. The Political Economy of Italy's Relations with China

Author:
Giovanni Andornino
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Sino-Italian bilateral relations are eminently economic in their focus, with trade and investments working as the main drivers of engagement. Two distinctive features have marked the economic interaction in recent years: a pattern of asymmetrical competition, and an asynchrony of opportunities in bilateral trade and investment flows. Between 2009 and 2011, however, Sino-Italian relations underwent important changes. Against the background of the global financial crisis, China might become a key source of foreign investments for Italy. In addition, China's efforts to promote domestic demand under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan might create unprecedented opportunities for Italian exports.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China and Italy

5712. US No. 1, China No. 2, or Will it Be the Other Way Round?

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Here are three very different books about China's rise and its relations with the world. The first two tend to give the shivers while the third, much more nuanced and balanced, is somewhat reassuring – up to a point. However, the three authors highlight the challenges that China's apparently irresistible re-emergence represent for the world. They also all share a focus on, if not an obsession with the United States which, in spite of its supposed decline, clearly remains in their eyes the ultimate benchmark of leadership and success, neglecting to various degrees other and less classical forces structuring and constraining China's rise, such as the European Union, globalisation, multipolarity and the social media.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

5713. How Not to Play the Blame Game of Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Christopher R. Hughes
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The discussion of cross-Strait relations is so politicised that it may be impossible for academics to take a neutral stand. No matter how hard they might try, sympathies will always be revealed by signs such as whether they dare to call the elected leader of Taiwan its 'president', or whether the other side of the Taiwan Strait is deemed to be 'China' or 'the mainland'. Maybe the best way to get a balanced view, then, is to compare one book leaning to the pan-Blue side of the political spectrum, that is sympathetic towards the claim that Taiwan is part of China, with one that leans towards the 'pan-Green' preference of seeing the island as a separate nation-state. After that, test the different perspectives against a more conventional historical narrative.
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

5714. A Conforming China

Author:
Enrico Fardella
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China, one of the most extraordinary examples of humankind's ability to create order out of chaos, capable of achieving both effectiveness and simplicity, and the apotheosis of continuity spanning millennia has always fascinated Western politicians and intellectuals. However, just as yin exists alongside yang, the awe and fascination for such a sound order exist alongside fear of the chaos that the lack of order could bring about and of the actions that such huge masses, if breaking away from order, could perpetrate.
Political Geography:
China

5715. Chinese History Revised: a New Tale of Deng Xiaoping

Author:
Claudia Astarita
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China is the most comprehensive and informative biography that has ever been written on one of the most mysterious Chinese leaders. According to the author, Deng Xiaoping deserves a central place in the pantheon of 20th century leaders, as no one in this century has had a greater longterm impact on world history. He not only launched China's market-oriented economic reforms, the ones that lifted so many Chinese out of poverty, but he also accomplished something that had eluded Chinese leaders for almost two hundred years: the transformation of the world's oldest civilisation into a modern, leading industrial nation. Last but not least, Deng managed to implement his new and unconventional strategy for China after convincing all party bureaucrats that he was just doing what the party and the country needed.
Political Geography:
China

5716. Beyond the 'Cognitive Iron Curtain'. China's White Paper on Peaceful Development

Author:
Simone Dossi
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China's Peaceful Development joins the growing number of white papers that the Chinese government has published over the past two decades on a variety of issues. The aim of the document is to explain the basic features of China's development strategy to foreign audiences, and for this reason it was released in both Chinese and English.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China

5717. From the Publisher

Author:
Larry Greenfield
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
No abstract is available.

5718. What Lies Beneath the "Arab Spring"

Author:
Reva Bhalla
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
More than a year has passed since the fall of the region's most stalwart Arab leader unleashed a current of dissent throughout the Arab world. That unrest, which spread from the Maghreb to the Arabian Peninsula, was simplistically treated in the media as an organic expression of liberal democracy that seemingly had the power to knock off Arab authoritarians one by one. Today, however, the initial euphoria over the so-called “Arab Spring” has predictably given way to disillusionment. After sacrificing the Ben Ali regime, Tunisia's army and security establishment stand ready to intervene should the country's Islamist-filled legislature overstep its boundaries in challenging the relics of the ancien régime. In Egypt, many forget (or fail to realize altogether) that the military establishment exploited the demonstrations to destroy Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's dynastic succession plan. Even as it seeks more creative maneuvers to rule behind what is expected to be an enfeebled parliament, the Egyptian military elite will remain the ultimate arbiter of the state for the foreseeable future. In Libya, after a rare NATO-led military intervention played the instrumental role of driving Gaddafi and his family from power, the once-celebrated rebel forces are again being viewed as a ragtag assortment of militias vying for the spoils of war in the absence of a legitimate, much less democratic, political authority. In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh has given up his presidential title for now under a Saudi-mediated power-sharing agreement with his rivals. Still, there is little to hide the fact that Saleh's regime, now led by his close family members, remains entrenched in the security, political and economic spheres of the state. Meanwhile, embattled Arab leaders are thankful for the distraction Syria has created as the latest flashpoint in the Middle East. Just as the Assad regime has proven unable to stamp out its domestic opposition, so too have Syria's still fractious, outgunned and outnumbered opposition forces been unable to overwhelm a largely united Alawite-dominated security and intelligence apparatus. Barring a foreign military intervention—something that no military power, particularly the United States, seems keen on—the Syrian regime can endure for some time to come, even as it becomes all the more dependent on Iran for its survival. The mainstream narrative regarding the Arab unrest has by and large failed to anticipate these developments. There is little predictive value in starting with an assumption that all demonstrations will lead to revolutions, and all revolutions to liberal democracies. Geopolitical context must also be applied. In particular, there are three underlying trends that began developing well before the start of the Arab unrest—and which can help to explain what has happened over the past year, and what to expect going forward.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Arabian Peninsula

5719. Morocco's Momentum

Author:
J. Peter Pham
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Amid the upheaval that swept across the Middle East and North Africa since the dramatic December 2010 suicide of Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old Tunisian street vendor, ignited long pent-up frustration with the regimes across the region, Morocco has stood out as an exception. Not only has the kingdom avoided both revolutionary tumult and violent repression, but while their neighbors were still struggling to come to terms with the so-called “Arab Spring,” Moroccans adopted a new constitution and elected a new government (albeit one led for the first time in the country's history by an Islamist party). The question now is whether this extraordinarily peaceful transformation is sustainable, and, if it is, what the implications might be for the region as a whole. Given the material reasons its people might have for grievance, Morocco was—at least superficially—a likelier candidate for revolutionary upheaval than its North African neighbors. In fact, on certain indices, Moroccans were indeed worse off than the citizens of any other country in the Maghreb. At the beginning of 2011, GDP per capita (purchasing power parity) in the kingdom was, respectively, just under half of what it was in Tunisia, three-fourths of what it was in Egypt, one-third of what it was in Libya, and two-thirds of what it was in Algeria. While the literacy rate in Morocco has been improving substantially in recent years, it still hovers at just above 50 percent, with women making up an overwhelming majority of those unable to read or write. Overall, the average Moroccan woman can expect to have six fewer years of schooling than her Tunisian sister and two years less than her Egyptian sister. Additionally, Morocco has a higher infant mortality rate and a lower life expectancy than any of the other four North African states.1 So why didn't Moroccans revolt against a system that has so clearly left them behind their neighbors? It was not that they were unaware of the protests: satellite dishes are ubiquitous even in the poorest areas, virtually every Moroccan adult has a mobile phone, and the country has one of the most technologically advanced Internet services, both cable and wireless, in Africa. Rather, other factors were at play.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco

5720. Egypt's Perfect Economic Storm

Author:
David P. Goldmann
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
A year after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's economic crisis has become a uniquely severe event. Markets are now forecasting a devaluation of Egypt's currency by about two-thirds, as capital flight and an enormous structural trade deficit exhaust the country's foreign exchange reserves. With perhaps half of Egypt's population living on $2 per day, a major devaluation would price basic necessities out of the reach of tens of millions of people, despite the country's extensive (if inefficient) system of subsidies. The crisis seems uncontainable; Egypt's central bank appears to have exhausted its capacity to borrow from the domestic market, and is at odds with prospective foreign donors. As a result, Egypt now faces a financial collapse similar to those in over-indebted Latin American countries during the 1980s and 1990s, except with a crucial difference: the Latin Americans are all food exporters, while Egypt imports half its domestically consumed foodstuffs. The difference between Egypt and a Latin American banana republic is the bananas. This is an unprecedented state of affairs, a perfect economic storm. Egypt imports half its caloric consumption and is the world's largest importer of wheat. Economic collapse will “transform a peaceful revolution into a hunger revolution,” the second-in-command of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood warned on February 3rd.1 After months of refusing to bargain with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Egypt's government has begun negotiations for a $3.2 billion loan, or less than the amount of capital flight in December alone. But the involvement of the IMF has done little to reassure Egyptian investors. And on February 11, 2012, Egypt's Finance Minister said that his country would need $11 billion in external aid.2 Moreover, as of this writing, Egypt's insistence on prosecuting American democracy activists threatens to shut off American aid at a critical moment. It is possible that Egypt's leaders have abandoned hope of forestalling the crisis and are directing their energies instead toward finding a foreign entity to blame. Even under the most benign political conditions, though, it is unlikely that the West or the Gulf States would offer Egypt aid on the scale required to prevent a crisis. Unlike other countries threatened by famine, Egypt's requirements simply are too great for the rest of the world to shoulder for an extended period of time. Its governance, moreover, is so corrupt that its capacity to use foreign aid is in doubt. The most likely outcome is a humanitarian catastrophe too large for the rest of the world to ameliorate, and a political outcome too chaotic to permit large-scale humanitarian intervention, like Somalia. An implicit assumption of public policy is that all problems have solutions. Egypt appears to be an outstanding exception, a major nation in existential crisis for which no solution will be found.
Topic:
Markets
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, Egypt, and Somalia