This issue of the Cato Journal is dedicated to William Niskanen, who passed away on October 26, 2011, at the age of 78. From 1985 to 2008, Bill served as chairman of the Cato Institute and a full-time economic scholar. He continued working as chairman emeritus and distinguished senior economist until his death. He was also on the editorial boards of Regulation magazine and the Cato Journal.
Defeat of a proposed constitution for the European Union by voters in France and the Netherlands in 2005 should have provided an opportunity to reflect on a broader range of alternative political and economic futures for Europe. But it did not. For the Lisbon Treaty, which became effective in December 2009, implemented most of the provisions of the proposed constitution that the voters rejected more than four years prior. It was important to reconsider the major current European political and economic institutions as well as alternative steps toward further European integration. For the major current institutions were created under different conditions, and the experience suggests that they may not best serve the peoples of Europe under current and expected future conditions.
The basic idea behind Keynesian policy for achieving stable economic growth is straightforward, and superficially plausible. When the economy is in a downturn with underutilized resources, Keynesians believe the federal government should increase aggregate demand by increasing deficit spending through some combination of more spending and lower taxes. With the aid of a multiplier effect augmenting the government's increase in aggregate demand, the economy will move back toward full employment. In contrast, they believe that when aggregate demand exceeds the productive capacity of the economy, the federal government can prevent inflationary overheating by reducing demand with a budget surplus generated by some combination of less spending and higher taxes. The resulting decrease in government demand will be augmented by a reverse multiplier effect, which will reduce inflationary pressures by bringing aggregate demand back in line with the economy's productive capacity. As discussed by Keynes and his early followers, there was nothing fiscally irresponsible about such a policy. While the budget would not be balanced on a yearly basis, it would be balanced over time as budget deficits intended to moderate recessions would be offset by budget surpluses used to restrain economic exuberance.
In the postwar years, most Third World countries turned inward partly in response to what they thought were the disastrous consequences of their 19th century integration into the world economy as the global economy collapsed in the Great Depression. The seeming success of Soviet central planning under Stalin also persuaded the leaders of these newly independent countries to substitute the plan for the market. Planning was all the rage, with the state seeking to control the commanding heights of the economy. Furthermore, the many theorists who created a seemingly "new development economics" provided the intellectual basis for the complex system of dirigiste controls on "anything that moved" (as one wit put it) in a market economy.
From their peak during the third quarter of 2007, to their trough during the first quarter of 2009, stock prices as measured by the S 500 fell 48 percent (see Figure 1). Through the third quarter of 2009, stock prices subsequently increased more than 40 percent. In contrast, housing prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller index, which fell 31 percent from their peak in the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2009, had not yet shown any sign of recovery.