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3121. Less is More: The Future of the U.S. Military in the Persian Gulf

Author:
Joshua Rovner and Caitlin Talmadge
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Five years ago, the total number of U.S. military personnel in the Persian Gulf was over 230,000. Today, that number is well under 50,000. The rapid exit of so many U.S. fighting men and women has caused many observers to fear for the future of the Gulf. As one analyst put it, the regional forecast is bleak with "violence, followed by intermittent violence, and renewed violence." Beyond the short - term problem of insecurity lies a raft of long - term nightmares, including political instability, oil shocks, and nuclear proliferation. Policymakers and military officials in Washington and the Persian Gulf share these concerns. The belief that a precipitous U.S. drawdown is creating a security vacuum and political breakdown is close to the conventional wisdom.
Topic:
Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Washington, and Persia

3122. The Fool's Errand for a Perfect Deal with Iran

Author:
Sven-Eric Fikenscher and Robert J. Reardon
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
After months of optimistic statements from negotiators, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran still have not achieved a comprehensive agreement to resolve the nuclear dispute. However, the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPA) is—at this writing—still in force and both sides maintain that a comprehensive deal remains within reach.
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

3123. Has India Peaked?

Author:
John R. Schmidt
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Has India peaked? This may seem like a strange question given the strong economic growth the country has experienced since it liberalized its economy in 1991. Together with China, India is widely regarded as the greatest global economic success story of the past quarter century, with growth rates typically ranging between 5 and 10 percent. 1 Although its growth rate has declined recently to less than 5 percent due in part to the global economic downturn, the landslide victory of the strongly pro - business BJP (for Bharatiya Janata Party, or Indian People's Party) in the spring 2014 elections has convinced many that it will begin trending up again in the near future.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China and India

3124. Modi's Unexpected Boost to India-U.S. Relations

Author:
Harsh V. Pant
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
A new government took office in India in May 2014 under the prime ministership of Narendra Modi. One of the first decisions it took was to invite the member states of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for the swearing - in ceremony. The decision was a surprise but widely viewed as a great move, underscoring the resolve of the new government to embed India firmly within the South Asian regional matrix. It also underlined that, even though Modi's priorities will be largely domestic, foreign policy will continue to receive due attention. Modi also immediately set for himself a frenetic pace of international travel for the remainder of 2014, covering countries as diverse as Bhutan, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Nepal, and others in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, India, Australia, and Southeast Asia

3125. Beyond Putin? Nationalism and Xenophobia in Russian Public Opinion

Author:
Theodore P. Gerber
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The role of nationalism within the Russian public is an under - examined but potentially important aspect of the crisis surrounding Russia's annexation of Crimea and its continuing involvement in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. As commentators have sought to comprehend President Vladimir Putin's motives, many have asserted or assumed that such actions enjoy tremendous Russian public support. Indeed, public opinion polls from Russia indicate that Putin's popularity soared in the wake of the Crimean annexation and that large majorities have supported the government's policies in Ukraine, sympathizing with the Kremlin's negative portrayals of U.S. motives and actions. However, it is not clear whether this wave of public support is a fleeting "rally around the flag" phenomenon or the result of an organic, deeper tendency toward nationalism and xenophobia in the Russian public.
Topic:
Nationalism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Ukraine

3126. Is Brazil a 'Responsible Stakeholder' or a Naysayer?

Author:
Esther D. Brimmer
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Will aspiring liberal democracies help maintain the current liberal international order? This current order rests on promoting and maintaining five pillars: peace and security; the market economy, especially international trade and investment; human rights and humanitarian action; sustainable development; and global spaces. Each of these areas is large and complex, and the emergence of new powers is likely to alter that system but not destabilize it.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Brazil, and Caribbean

3127. Between Aspiration and Reality: Indonesian Foreign Policy After the 2014 Elections

Author:
Prashanth Parameswaran
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On October 20, 2014, Indonesia—the world's fourth - largest nation, third - largest democracy, and largest Muslim - majority country—after a decade of stable leadership under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, inaugurated former Jakarta governor Joko Widodo as its new president. Jokowi, as he is popularly known in Indonesia, will face the daunting task of addressing the country's myriad domestic problems, while also maintaining its role abroad as a regional leader in Southeast Asia as well as a global player in important international fora like the G20 and the United Nations. Indonesian foreign policy will likely display significant continuity with the Yudhoyono years. But in translating Indonesia's foreign policy aspirations into reality, Jokowi will confront major challenges ranging from nagging resource constraints at home to incomplete political transitions and rising nationalism among Indonesia's neighbors abroad. These challenges have profound implications for U.S. policy toward Indonesia, given the closer ties between the two countries over the past few years. U.S. policymakers should factor in these realities as they fashion next steps for U.S.-Indonesia relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and United Nations

3128. Escaping a security dilemma: Anarchy, certainty and embedded norms

Author:
Alan Collins
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Politics
Institution:
Palgrave Macmillan
Abstract:
This article is a response to a significant development in the security dilemma literature contained in the work of Ken Booth and Nicholas Wheeler; their re-conceptualisation of the security dilemma. They correctly identify that what many writers call the security dilemma is actually a paradox and they seek to disentangle the dilemma from the paradox. This enables them to argue, without contradiction, that it is possible to transcend the security dilemma but not escape it. Indeed, they argue it is inescapable. The inescapable claim is based on uncertainty in state relations being omnipresent and uncertainty being the defining feature of a security dilemma. In this article I argue that certainty, in some cases misplaced, more accurately explains state interaction. Where that certainty is grounded in deeply embedded norms and beliefs about the other, and their relationship, the security dilemma has been escaped.
Topic:
Security

3129. The Air-Sea Battle 'concept': A critique

Author:
Amitai Etzioni
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Politics
Institution:
Palgrave Macmillan
Abstract:
In May 2013 the Pentagon released an unclassified summary of the top-secret Air-Sea Battle (ASB) Concept. ASB serves to focus the Pentagon's efforts to organize, train and equip the armed forces against advanced weapons systems that threaten the US military's unfettered freedom of access and action in the global commons. While officials claim ASB is merely improve service interoperability and could be applied in any number of conflict situations, this article argues that in fact the doctrine represents the Pentagon's plan for confronting China's increasingly capable and confident military. This raises two urgent questions: how does ASB fit into an overall US foreign policy toward China – and, if a military confrontation cannot be avoided, are there less risky alternatives, such a maritime blockade, that can achieve the same ends as ASB?
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
China

3130. Constructing great powers: China's status in a socially constructed plurality

Author:
Catherine Jones
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Politics
Institution:
Palgrave Macmillan
Abstract:
As a rising power, increasing attention is focused on what China does on the world stage. The growing number of books and articles on China's rise, whether it is sustainable, whether it is a model for other developing states, and most importantly whether it is likely to change the current international order, highlights the level of interest in this phenomenon. This article suggests that focusing on China alone is not enough; instead it is essential to view the rise of China exemplifying the relationship between international order, great powers' status, and the shaping of the roles and responsibilities of great powers. It argues that when seen as a part of the construction of international order, great powers are also constructs within international order; as a result, China as a 'great power' does not exist apart from the international order it is rising into. This perspective broadens the range of possible questions that can be asked in relation to China (and other rising powers).
Political Geography:
China