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541. Making sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters

Author:
Luis Simón and Vivien Pertusot
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions. This exercise in geopolitical scoping seeks to make sense of the main security challenges present in Europe’s broader European neighbourhood, a space encompassing areas as diverse as the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahel, North Africa, the Levant and the Persian Gulf. It identifies (some of) the main sub-regions that make up the ‘South’, offers an overview of the threat environment in each of them and identifies relevant differences as well as common themes. In doing so we aim to provide a conceptual referent for further policy research on the security of Europe’s ‘South’, and to help inform future strategic and policy discussions within the EU, NATO and their Member States.
Topic:
International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

542. Cyprus’s elusive reunification: so near to a solution, yet so far

Author:
William Chislett
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
UN-brokered talks to finally reunify Cyprus after 43 years offered hope, but obstacles remained and any deal would have to be approved in referendums on both sides. Greek Cypriots rejected the settlement put forward by the United Nations in 2004. The reunification of Cyprus is one of the world’s longest running and intractable international problems. The latest talks in Geneva in January 2017 between Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek-Cypriot President, and Mustafa Akıncı, his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart, after 20 months of negotiations, made significant progress. The issues of territorial adjustments and security and guarantees are the most sensitive and core issues yet to be resolved and ones that will determine whether a solution can be reached and approved in referendums on both sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus

543. Three’s company? France, Germany, the UK and European defence post-Brexit

Author:
Daniel Keohane
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
It is vital that France, Germany and the UK cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the EU. Supporters of EU defence policy have seized on the Brexit decision of the British people as an opportunity to strengthen that policy. In the past the UK had blocked some proposals, which France, Germany and others now wish to implement. But a more energised EU defence on paper will not quickly transform into a stronger policy in practice. More important for the security of Europeans is that France, Germany and the UK ensure that they cooperate constructively on military matters after the British leave the EU.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
European Union

544. The New US Administration and Libya

Author:
Karim Mezran
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
As the Trump administration assumes office, it faces a major challenge in Libya, where the country’s situation continues to deteriorate as an ongoing conflict worsens. The Libya Peace Agreement produced in 2015 by a UN-backed process, which established a Presidential Council and Government of National Accord (PC/GNA), is floundering. The PC/GNA has failed to garner credibility on the ground since landing in Tripoli almost a year ago and it has suffered from significant infighting.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
America and Libya

545. Egypt’s Security and Haftar: al-Sisi’s strategy in Libya

Author:
Giuseppe Dentice
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Egyptian military response through heavy air strikes on the cities of Darnah and Sirte – as a consequence of the kidnapping and beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts by a Libyan cell affiliated to the Islamic State (IS) in February 2015 – represents so far the peak of Egypt’s involvement in the Libyan affaire.
Topic:
International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya and Egypt

546. Once and for All a New Compromise in Libya?

Author:
Virginie Collombier
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
More than one year after the signing of the Libyan Political Accord (LPA) in Skhirat, implementation of the agreement is impeded by obstacles which now look insurmountable. Despite efforts by Western countries and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to empower the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA), major constituencies have continued contesting its legitimacy and refusing its authority.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya and Global Focus

547. Time for action: EU and a new political initiative in Libya

Author:
Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
During 2016 and in the first few weeks of 2017, it has become clear that General Khalifa Haftar is gaining support both locally and internationally. Egypt, the Emirates, Russia, and France, all played a role in strengthening his power.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya and Global Focus

548. The Haftar-Russia link and the Military Plan of the LNA

Author:
Wolfgang Pusztai
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
After the 1969 revolution, Libya’s previously close links to the United States quickly deteriorated. At the same time Muammar al-Gaddafi sought closer links to the Soviet Union. The clear majority of the equipment of the “Armed Forces of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya” originated from the Soviets or the Eastern Bloc. Many of the officers of all services were educated at military training facilities of the Soviet Armed Forces. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia remained as one of Libya’s key allies.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Russia and Libya

549. Stuck in Libya. Migrants and (Our) Political Responsibilities

Author:
Nancy Porsia
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Fighting at Tripoli’s international airport was still under way when, in July 2014, the diplomatic missions of European countries, the United States and Canada were shut down. At that time Italy decided to maintain a pied-à-terre in place in order to preserve the precarious balance of its assets in the two-headed country, strengthening security at its local headquarters on Tripoli’s seafront. On the one hand there was no forsaking the Mellitah Oil & Gas compound, controlled by Eni and based west of Tripoli.
Topic:
Migration and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
Global Focus

550. What Libyans Really Want

Author:
Sami Zaptia
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Six years on from its February 2011 revolution, Libya’s political scene is characterized by fragmentation and polarization. The constantly shifting political and military allegiances and contested legitimacy since 2014 have today resulted in three Libyan ‘‘governments’’ claiming legitimacy.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya