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121. Mobilizing the Pacific Diaspora: A Key Component of Disaster Resilience

Author:
Siautu Alefaio
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Of all the earth’s regions, the Pacific is one of the most prone to natural disasters. Climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones make the headlines, along with other natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These may be accompanied by crises in public health. Today, many Pacific Island countries rely heavily on government relief and international aid when they face a disaster. Traditional sources of resilience can still play an important role, however, both within local communities and within the broader diaspora of Pacific communities in Aotearoa-New Zealand, Australia, and the US. A better understanding of Pacific cultures from within and a better recognition of the role of the Pacific diaspora and of churches in Pacific communities would also help improve development efforts and disaster response.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Diaspora
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

122. Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai'i

Author:
Alison D. Nugent, Ryan J. Longman, Clay Trauernicht, Matthew P. Lucas, Henry F. Diaz, and Thomas W. Giambelluca
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Hurricane Lane, which struck the Hawaiian islands on 22–25 August 2018, presented a textbook example of the compounding hazards that can be produced by a single storm. Over a four-day period, the island of Hawaiʻi received an average 17 inches of rainfall. One location received 57 inches, making Hurricane Lane the wettest tropical storm ever recorded in the state and the second wettest ever recorded in the US. At the same time, three wildfires on the island of Maui and one on Oʻahu burned nearly 3,000 acres of abandoned agricultural land. As the global climate warms, the number and strength of hurricanes is expected to increase, both in Hawaiʻi and in the Pacific region generally. A better understanding of the relationship between hurricanes and global climate change is critical in order to predict the vulnerability of people and resources during a severe weather event and to plan an appropriate course of action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, and Hawaii

123. Challenges and Responses to COVID-19: Experience from Asia

Author:
Nancy Davis Lewis and Jonathan D. Mayer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Experience in Asia suggests that public health and medical capacity are critical for an effective response to an emerging infectious disease. Political will and previous experience with disease outbreaks also play a role. Singapore ignored an important segment of its population and is now experiencing a huge spike in cases. China and Vietnam were able to enforce draconian measures, while in Japan and Hong Kong, civil society had a greater role in initiating effective controls. In several countries, local political outcomes have been affected by the perceived success or failure of leaders in controlling the crisis.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Leadership, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Hong Kong

124. US-China Economic Relations Under Pressure From COVID-19

Author:
Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
With both the US and China facing a long economic slowdown, the bilateral relationship between the globe's two largest economies faces massive challenges. Making matters worse, Washington and Beijing have attempted to divert domestic attention away from their own substantial shortcomings by blaming each other. Given the economic uncertainty, each side has limited leverage to force the other into making concessions. Harsh rhetoric only serves to inflame tensions at the worst possible time. For better or worse, the US and China are locked in a messy economic marriage. A divorce at this time would exact an enormous cost in an already weakened economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

125. An Aging Population in Asia Creates Economic Challenges

Author:
Andew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. This shift in population age structure had two major impacts: demand for income support for the elderly will rise because their labor income tends to be extremely low; and gross domestic product (GDP) and other aggregate economic indicators will grow more slowly as growth in the effective labor force declines. In countries where government programs play an important role in old-age support, tax rates will have to rise or benefits will have to be curtailed or both—all options with significant political costs.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Population, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Asia-Pacific

126. New Findings on Links between Urban Expansion and Viral Disease in Vietnam Offer Lessons for COVID-19

Author:
James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The current COVID-19 pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China, underscores what the public health community has warned about for more than two decades—the risk of viral diseases capable of spreading from animal to human hosts. The first outbreaks of “bird flu” (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI, subtype H5N1)—raised similar concerns 20 years ago, concerns that have persisted with the outbreak of SARS in 2002–2004 and COVID-19 today. A recent study compared information on infrastructure and other aspects of economic development in Vietnam with outbreaks of avian influenza. While this research focuses on avian influenza in Vietnam, the study of links between infrastructure characteristics and new and reemerging health risks has broad applicability, especially given the global importance of today’s rapidly expanding urban landscapes.
Topic:
Infectious Diseases, Urban, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Vietnam

127. China is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific--At Least Not Yet

Author:
Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In an atmosphere of heightened geostrategic competition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about the risk of debt problems in less-developed countries. Such risks are especially worrying for the small and fragile economies of the Pacific. A close look at the evidence suggests that China has not been engaged in debt-trap diplomacy in the Pacific, at least not so far. Nonetheless, if future Chinese lending continues on a business-as-usual basis, serious problems of debt sustainability will arise, and concerns about quality and corruption are valid.There have been recent signs that both China and Pacific Island governments recognize the need for reform. China needs to adopt formal lending rules similar to those of the multilateral development banks, providing more favorable terms to countries at greater risk of debt distress. Alternative approaches might include replacing or partially replacing EXIM loans with the interest-free loans and grants that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce already provides.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

128. COMMENTARIES: State of the European Union address 2020

Author:
Katerina Davidova, Vít Havelka, Jana Juzová, Christian Kvorning Lassen, Danielle Piatkiewicz, and Zuzana Stuchlíková
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Experts from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy comment on the State of the Union address (SOTEU) given by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on 16 September 2020. Topics of the commentaries: Christian Kvorning Lassen: General Impressions – A Visionary Speech Challenged by Political Reality; Christian Kvorning Lassen: A Stronger European Health Union is Needed; Christian Kvorning Lassen: Migration – Ambitious rhetoric, dubious feasibility; Danielle Piatkiewicz: Multilateralism: Europe’s Call to Global Action – Taking the Lead; Kateřina Davidová: EU’s climate momentum not quashed by the pandemic as new target is presented; Jana Juzová: European Neighbourhoods – Vague Reassurances, Economy First; Zuzana Stuchlíková: Next Generation EU, Rule of Law and Conference on the Future of Europe; Vít Havelka: The EU and the UK fights over blame for Brexit fiasco
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Migration, European Union, Multilateralism, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

129. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
Topic:
Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

130. EU – Western Balkans summit - More reforms, more money

Author:
Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Wednesday’s Summit of EU and Western Balkans leaders was long-anticipated following the efforts aimed at reviving the EU enlargement process. The Summit was originally planned to be organized in Zagreb, under the Croatian EU presidency, however, due to the coronavirus pandemic, it was held as a videoconference. Nevertheless, the fact that the Summit was realized despite the current global situation, even on the scheduled date, demonstrates that the Western Balkan region represents a priority for Croatia as well as the rest of the EU, and that the EU genuinely wants to revitalize the enlargement process. It was expected that the Summit in Zagreb would follow up on the positive developments in the past months, those being the positive decision of the European Council on opening the accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, and the adoption of a new enlargement methodology (i.e. set of rules leading the accession process). However, the Summit’s agenda was naturally influenced by the current COVID-19 pandemic and the central topic was eventually the assistance provided by the EU to the Western Balkan countries and a larger plan for their economic recovery.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans