1. Economic Distress and the Inevitability of an Economic Recovery Programme
- Author:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Zambia is emerging from a major economic downturn. The copper price collapse, electricity shortages, huge fall in the value of the Kwacha and high inflation in 2015 left the economy stalling. Growth in 2015 was 2.9% and possibly 3.4% in 2016, significantly below the long-term average rate of 6.9%. The downturn was compounded by a tightening of monetary policy which made it harder for businesses to borrow, and by a continuation of expansionary fiscal policies which increased the budget deficit and Government debt. Because the scale of the challenge was so significant, the Government announced it would launch Zambia Plus, a home-grown recovery programme to put the economy back on track. A credible recovery programme will be essential to instill fiscal discipline, create conditions for growth, and support poverty reduction. A failure to the programme will result in significant adverse consequences for the economy and Zambian households. Without Zambia Plus, the budget deficit (measured as a percentage of GDP) is likely to continue performing worse than the authorities’ targets. Thus, the overall debt level will keep growing, possibly reaching an average of 58.6% of GDP over 2017-2021, up from an average of 23.3% over 2007-2014. More debt will mean a bigger budget taken to meet debt servicing obligations. For instance, in 2017 alone the Government allocated almost ¼ of the budget to debt servicing and arrears payments. This is the equivalent of over K15 billion that could otherwise be spent on tackling poverty or supporting growth. The current path is unsustainable, and the consequences of failing to act are likely to be felt hardest by the poor, who already bear the brunt. Analysis of the 2015 Budget reveals that when the economic downturn set in the most significant underspends were on social cash transfers, the economic empowerment fund and the public service pension fund. So, the absence of Zambia Plus will do bigger and longer lasting damage to the lives of poor Zambians than will the few challenges of the programme.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Economy, and Public Debt
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia