Author: Valérie Mignon / Topic: Trade

Author:: Celso Brunetti, Marc Joëts, and Valérie Mignon
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides valuable information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC’s public signal and test its credibility. Using Structural Topic Models, we identify in OPEC narratives several topics related to fundamental factors such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market, highlighting that OPEC announcements are highly linked to oil market volatility and traders’ positions. Most importantly, we find that OPEC communication is credible, reduces oil price volatility, and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions.
Topic:: Markets, Oil, OPEC, Trade, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Author:: Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, and Valérie Mignon
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper describes the new CEPII-MULTIPRIL database on Multilateral Price Levels (MPL) introduced in 2020. The MULTIPRIL database covers a wide sample of 178 countries over the 1990-2018 period, and includes relative price level series computed vis-à-vis two sets of trading partners (177 and the top 30) according to three different trade-weighting schemes. It also contains MPL-based currency misalignments series for 156 countries over the 1991-2018 period. MULTIPRIL offers the potential to improve the coverage and quality of worldwide price-competitiveness comparisons. By focusing on price level data, it usefully complements the EQCHANGE database on equilibrium exchange rates and currency misalignments derived from series in indices. Its multilateral setting provides a more comprehensive picture of relative price levels and currency misalignments compared to existing bilateral measures.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Trade, Database, and Price
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Author:: Valérie Mignon and Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper assesses whether the emergence of new trading partners (i.e., China and Eastern Europe) as suppliers reduces the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in Eurozone countries which differ regarding their external exposure. Using bilateral data on import prices at the two-digit sector level, we find that (i) pass-through is complete in many cases, (ii) ERPT from China is higher than from the United States, and (iii) there is no compelling evidence of a generalized link between ERPT and the increasing integration of some emerging markets in European imports. We also show that the launch of the single currency has not provoked a sufficient change in the part of trade exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, has not affected the pass-through. Overall, the trend of liberalization in new players' markets has not altered the competitive environment such as to induce exporters of other countries to absorb exchange rate depreciations.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Eurozone, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Eastern Europe

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