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1. Migration to the UK after Brexit: policy, politics and public opinion

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Immigration, while far less salient than it was in 2016, is becoming a key political and policy issue again. This report not only analyses what has changed in terms of both outcomes and public opinion but considers how a future government might respond to the issue of migration, and the kinds of tradeoffs they will have to address. The report, which brings together authors from British Future, the Institute for Government, the Migration Observatory, the Social Market Foundation, and the KCL Policy Institute, among others, provides a comprehensive review of changes in policy, outcomes, and public opinion that have reshaped the landscape. The report shows the next government faces a number of challenges as the large post-Covid spike in arrivals has pushed immigration to the top of the political agenda again. Numbers peaked at the end of 2022, with 1.15 million long-term international migrants (those planning to stay at least a year) arriving in the UK over the previous 12 months, although net migration is likely to fall very sharply over the course of 2024. A new model for ‘humanitarian migration’ has emerged in the years since Brexit, with large inflows of migrants fleeing conflict in Ukraine and political oppression in Hong Kong. With a range of expert contributors, the report looks ahead at the choices for the next government, covering integration, asylum, the role of AI in helping us understand public views on immigration, humanitarian migration routes, student migration, economic migration, the legacy of the Windrush scandal, and much more.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Public Opinion, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Six and a half years since the Brexit referendum, UK relations with the EU have still not settled into a coherent and consistent pattern. Partly, this is because the process of leaving itself took so long. Partly, too, because there is much still to resolve, not least whether the treaties signed will be fully applied. This report examines the contours of that relationship. It assesses both where we have got to and how the relationship might evolve. The reports sets out the state of play on trade, migration, public opinion, as well as the various party positions on the relationship. It also highlights the deadlines and decisions on the horizon in a number of areas, such as financial services, electric vehicles and fisheries. Finally, it examines the ways in which the TCA could be deepened, and steps that might be taken beyond the TCA – both unilaterally and through increased cooperation with the EU – concluding that changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3. The state of public opinion: 2023

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
A lot has changed since Boris Johnson celebrated ‘smashing’ the 2019 election. Since then, we’ve faced a global pandemic, two wars, and spiralling inflation and interest rates. Britain has lived through a tumultuous period. The same period saw Labour choose a new leader, whilst the Conservatives elected two. ‘Levelling up’ became the latest buzzword. ‘Partygate’ was followed by a series of allegations about impropriety at the top of government. Nineteen by-elections took place, for reasons ranging from resignations to recall petitions. As the cost-of-living crisis worsened, voter concern about the economy rocketed, whilst interest in Brexit declined. As we approach the next general election, understanding what the public makes of these developments, and how opinion and voting behaviour has shifted since December 2019, is crucial. This new UK in a Changing Europe report brings together over 45 of the UK’s top public opinion experts. They analyse both short and long-term trends that have shaped public attitudes and voting behaviour and will continue to do so in the run up to the next general election and beyond. The 36 contributions cover political parties, the four nations, key policy issues, voting behaviour and Brexit.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, Brexit, and Polls
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. Brexit and Beyond: public opinion

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon public opinion, from the growing division between British voters and the lasting importance of Remain and Leave identities, to the increasing salience of social values, Scotland’s appetite for independence, and the fluctuating importance of immigration to the British electorate.
Topic:
Politics, Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, Domestic Politics, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

5. Comfortable leavers: the expectations and hopes of the overlooked Brexit voters

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This briefing paper draws on workshops conducted by NatCen in summer 2020 with a group of voters we have labelled ‘Comfortable Leavers’. Often overlooked, in favour of narratives that have emphasised the role of the ‘left behind,’ we thought it important to understand what this sizeable part of the Leave vote thought about Brexit and hoped for the future of the country.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, Voting, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe