Author: Soner Cagaptay / Political Geography: United States

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the northern front in Iraq being officially launched today, coalition forces may soon move toward the city of Kirkuk, which they began bombing on March 21. Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds as the prospective capital of a Kurdish region in postwar Iraq, is the bastion of the Turkmens, a Turkish-speaking community that shares close historical, social, and cultural ties with the Anatolian Turks in neighboring Turkey. Their fortunes will be closely scrutinized in Turkey during and after Operation Iraqi Freedom. If Turks feel that the Turkmen community is being discriminated against or threatened, they could force Ankara to take action, perhaps undermining what remains of U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a dramatic session yesterday, the Turkish parliament convened to consider a motion sent by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which had requested that a large U.S. force be permitted to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible campaign in Iraq. The legislature refused to authorize the motion, however, blocking the creation of a northern front in the looming war. Of the 533 deputies in session, 264 voted for the motion, 250 voted against it, and 19 abstained, bringing the motion only three votes shy of the majority required by the constitution. AKP assurances that only 30 to 40 of its delegates would object to the motion crashed to a halt over the course of the session, with 99 of the party's deputies voting nay. Although the democratic will of the Turkish parliament should be respected, the fact remains that the AKP government failed to pass its agenda through the legislature. Some analysts argue that this spells trouble for both Turkey and AKP, with others speculating that U.S.-Turkish relations are now at a historical threshold.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's parliament will soon vote on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible war with Iraq. Since Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's trip to Ankara in early December 2002, Turkey and the United States have engaged in a protracted dialogue about Ankara's stance toward potential U.S. military action. Why has Turkey been hesitant to support Washington's plans, and how might such vacillation affect the U.S.-Turkish strategic alliance in the future?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States considers a possible military campaign in Iraq, Turkey is preoccupied with its upcoming elections. Although a party with roots in Islamism will be a major contender in the November 3 elections, it is unlikely that Turkey's approach to the Iraq issue will change much, regardless of which party wins. That said, continuing political uncertainty at home could preoccupy Turkish leaders, reducing Turkey's contribution to solving the Iraq problem.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

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