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1. Countries at Risk for Intrastate Mass Killing 2024–25: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment Results

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Policy makers face the challenge of simultaneously responding to ongoing mass atrocities and trying to prevent entirely new mass atrocity situations. A critical first step toward prevention is accurate and reliable assessment of countries at risk for future violence. The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of intrastate mass killing. This report aims to help identify countries where preventive actions may be needed. Earlier identification of risk broadens the scope of possible preventive actions. In essence, our statistical model identifies patterns in historical data to answer the following question: Which countries today look most similar to countries that experienced mass killings in the past, in the year or two before those mass killings began? The historical data include basic country characteristics, as well as data on governance, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, and socioeconomic factors. This report highlights findings from our Statistical Risk Assessment for 2024–25, focusing on: Countries with the highest estimated risk of a new mass killing in 2024 or 2025 Countries where estimated risk has been consistently high over multiple years Countries where estimated risk has increased or decreased significantly from our last assessment Countries with unexpected results We emphasize that this assessment is just one tool. It is meant to be a starting point for discussion and further research, not a definitive conclusion. We aim to help governments, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations determine where to devote resources for additional analysis, policy attention, and, ultimately, preventive action. We hope that this report and our Early Warning Project as a whole inspire governments and other organizations to invest in their own early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. "A Perfect Storm is Gathering": Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide has published two reports detailing the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, first in February 2022 and then in January 2023.1 In these reports, we identified a number of factors contributing to the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, including armed conflict in which civilians are targeted for brutal attacks, shrinking civic space, and the failure to fully and credibly implement measures of the peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war in 2018. These challenges persist, exacerbated by the onset of war in neighboring Sudan and the impacts of severe flooding and drought. In September 2024, the government of South Sudan announced a two-year extension of the transitional period and postponed the holding of national elections. This extension is an opportunity for the government to make progress on key commitments to peace and justice. However, this delay is not itself a panacea for the mass atrocity risks that persist in South Sudan, which could see a return to violence if the transition falters or fails. This brief will examine ongoing and compounding risk factors for mass atrocities and offer recommendations for addressing these risks during the next two years.
Topic:
Elections, Transitional Justice, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

3. Mass Atrocity Crimes Against Women and Girls in Afghanistan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Afghanistan has consistently ranked among the ten highest-risk countries for a new onset of mass killing1 in the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s annual Statistical Risk Assessment. 2 Since 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, many communities face a heightened risk of targeted violence. In 2021, the Museum’s Simon Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide issued warnings of potential mass atrocities against women and girls3 and the risk of genocide against the Hazara community.4 The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) have collaborated on a series of convenings on the risks to civilians in Afghanistan and potential international responses to halt and prevent the Taliban’s crimes and advance accountability for the victims. In January 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and USIP co-hosted a private roundtable discussion on mass atrocity crimes committed against women and girls by the Taliban. The conversation was held in recognition that crimes perpetrated against women and girls, while too often neglected, are often mass atrocities and require a coordinated response from the international community. The convening included researchers, policymakers, activists, legal experts, and other civil society representatives, who discussed the following questions: • What information has been collected about crimes targeting women and girls in Afghanistan, and what patterns emerge from this documentation? • How and why has gender persecution become a focus of investigative efforts? • What are the consequences of the Taliban’s persecution of women and girls? • How can the Taliban be held accountable for their crimes against women and girls? • What topics need further exploration? • What are recommendations for actions that can be undertaken in the coming year to address the Taliban’s crimes against women and girls? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
Topic:
Taliban, Women, Atrocities, Girls, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

4. Breaking Cycles of Distrust: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Bangladesh

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report explores scenarios over the next 12–18 months in which Bangladesh could plausibly experience large-scale, systematic attacks on civilian populations. The authors selected Bangladesh for this study because it has consistently ranked in the top 10 percent of countries in the world on the Early Warning Project’s global statistical risk assessment for state-led mass killing; yet, there has been relatively little apparent policy attention to these risks. Staff of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide interviewed a wide variety of stakeholders in Bangladesh and elsewhere to identify potential mass atrocity scenarios and the underlying risks and mitigating factors. The risk of mass violence in Bangladesh is rooted in the competition between Bangladesh’s two main political parties and is likely to be particularly acute in the lead-up to and aftermath of the general election scheduled for late 2018. Contested or unclear electoral results present the greatest risk of mass killing. If there is disagreement regarding the election results, allegations of fraud or rigging, or a situation where neither the Awami League (AL) nor the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) receives the required number of seats to form a government, the deeply polarized political environment has created incentives for each major party to react violently. Supporters of the competing party are likely to be the main targets in any mass atrocity scenario; religious minorities face distinct but related risks as well.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Domestic Politics, Dialogue, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia