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1. Halting Genocide in Sudan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In January 2025, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report, “History is repeating itself in Darfur in the Worst Possible Way”: Halting Genocide in Sudan (PDF). This report focuses particularly on ethnically targeted mass atrocities in Darfur committed since the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023. It also assesses future risks, particularly as the rise in identity-based targeting by both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces increases the risk of further mass atrocities. On January 7, 2025, the United States Department of State determined that genocide is being perpetrated in Darfur by members of the RSF, a powerful paramilitary group, and their allied militias. This determination is a somber acknowledgment of the horrific crimes endured by communities who experienced genocide 20 years ago and have been neglected for too long. This genocide is ongoing. Civilian protection must be an urgent priority for the US government and the international community. This report offers policy options for the US and other governments—acting individually and as part of regional and international bodies—to halt mass atrocities, bolster accountability mechanisms and local documentation efforts, and protect civilians from harm. These actions should include increased pressure on states that provide financial support to the RSF, securing pathways for humanitarian aid, and prioritizing civilian protection, including by supporting locally-led prevention and protection efforts.
Topic:
Genocide, Armed Forces, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

2. Countries at Risk for Intrastate Mass Killing 2024–25: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment Results

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Policy makers face the challenge of simultaneously responding to ongoing mass atrocities and trying to prevent entirely new mass atrocity situations. A critical first step toward prevention is accurate and reliable assessment of countries at risk for future violence. The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of intrastate mass killing. This report aims to help identify countries where preventive actions may be needed. Earlier identification of risk broadens the scope of possible preventive actions. In essence, our statistical model identifies patterns in historical data to answer the following question: Which countries today look most similar to countries that experienced mass killings in the past, in the year or two before those mass killings began? The historical data include basic country characteristics, as well as data on governance, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, and socioeconomic factors. This report highlights findings from our Statistical Risk Assessment for 2024–25, focusing on: Countries with the highest estimated risk of a new mass killing in 2024 or 2025 Countries where estimated risk has been consistently high over multiple years Countries where estimated risk has increased or decreased significantly from our last assessment Countries with unexpected results We emphasize that this assessment is just one tool. It is meant to be a starting point for discussion and further research, not a definitive conclusion. We aim to help governments, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations determine where to devote resources for additional analysis, policy attention, and, ultimately, preventive action. We hope that this report and our Early Warning Project as a whole inspire governments and other organizations to invest in their own early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Increasing the Policy-Relevance of Research on Atrocity Prevention Strategies and Tools: Toward a 10-year collaborative research program

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On June 7, 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide convened leading social scientists, policy makers, and funders of policy-relevant research for a one-day workshop to explore how the Center should contribute its staff resources and research budget to improving policy-relevant research about atrocity prevention strategies and tools. Participants discussed the following topics: • Positive examples of research informing policy on atrocity prevention and general lessons to be drawn from these cases; • Key obstacles to policy-relevant atrocity prevention research, including gaps in the topics covered by the literature, obstacles to inference about the effects of atrocity prevention policy actions, and obstacles to synthesizing findings from a large body of studies; and • Strategies to increase the volume, relevance, quality, and impact on policy of atrocity prevention research. This rapporteur's report summarizes the workshop’s key themes in accordance with the Chatham House rule of non-attribution.
Topic:
Genocide, Research, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. “To Make Us Slowly Disappear”: The Chinese Government’s Assault on the Uyghurs

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a report in November 2021, “To Make Us Slowly Disappear”: The Chinese Government’s Assault on the Uyghurs. The Chinese government’s attacks on the Uyghur community are alarming in scale and severity. The report expresses the Museum’s grave concern that the Chinese government may be committing genocide against the Uyghurs, a Muslim community in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China. The report also details multiple crimes against humanity that the Chinese government is committing against the Uyghur population. These crimes include forced sterilization, sexual violence, enslavement, torture, forcible transfer, persecution, and imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty. The Museum’s findings, based on publicly available information, demonstrate that China is failing to uphold its responsibility to protect its citizens from genocide and crimes against humanity. The Chinese government must halt its attacks on the Uyghur people and allow independent international monitors to investigate and ensure that the crimes have stopped. The seriousness of the assault on the Uyghur population demands the immediate response of the international community to protect the victims.
Topic:
Genocide, Government, Human Rights, Minorities, State Violence, Atrocities, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China and Xinjiang

5. Burma’s 2020 Elections and Ongoing Atrocity Risks Facing the Rohingya Population

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Burma’s 2020 national elections, scheduled for November 8th, will take place in a fragile context of ongoing risk of genocide for the country’s minority Rohingya population and continuing mass atrocities—including war crimes and crimes against humanity—against other ethnic populations. While the elections themselves may not be a trigger for mass atrocities in Burma, the responses to the elections from within the country and internationally has the ability to either exacerbate or mitigate future atrocityrelated risks. Parliamentary seats at the national and state level will be voted upon in the November elections. Only 75% of the total seats will be contested, as the country’s constitution reserves 25% of seats for the military.1 At the time of writing, it appears as though most Rohingya within Burma—members of an ethnic and religious minority that has been the victims of genocide—will be denied the right to vote.2 The approximately one million Rohingya who now live as refugees in Bangladesh will likewise be unable to vote in the elections. At least six Rohingya candidates have been prevented from running for office by the Union Election Commission (UEC), despite some of them having been approved candidates in the past and, in one case, having won a parliamentary seat. These candidates were blocked from running because they were unable to confirm the citizenship of their parents at the time of their birth.3 The UEC has applied such policies in a discriminatory fashion against Rohingya politicians,4 raising concerns that key Rohingya politicians will be unable to contest seats in the elections. This is not the first time the government has denied these rights, and the continued disenfranchisement and exclusion of Rohingya heightens their vulnerability to future atrocities. An election in which a people, who have been the victims of genocide, are denied the right to vote on the basis of their identity, is not a free, fair, or inclusive election. Any foreign government’s praise and support of Burma’s elections would be seen as endorsing a discriminatory process and lending support to the policies and behaviors that contributed to the genocide of the Rohingya and to ongoing risk. Instead, leaders around the world should use their available levers to mitigate atrocity risks, press for inclusivity regarding voting and political participation, and encourage other changes within Burma that advance the protection of the Rohingya and other vulnerable groups.
Topic:
Genocide, Elections, Risk, Atrocities, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
Burma and Southeast Asia