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1. "A Perfect Storm is Gathering": Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide has published two reports detailing the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, first in February 2022 and then in January 2023.1 In these reports, we identified a number of factors contributing to the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, including armed conflict in which civilians are targeted for brutal attacks, shrinking civic space, and the failure to fully and credibly implement measures of the peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war in 2018. These challenges persist, exacerbated by the onset of war in neighboring Sudan and the impacts of severe flooding and drought. In September 2024, the government of South Sudan announced a two-year extension of the transitional period and postponed the holding of national elections. This extension is an opportunity for the government to make progress on key commitments to peace and justice. However, this delay is not itself a panacea for the mass atrocity risks that persist in South Sudan, which could see a return to violence if the transition falters or fails. This brief will examine ongoing and compounding risk factors for mass atrocities and offer recommendations for addressing these risks during the next two years.
Topic:
Elections, Transitional Justice, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

2. The Private Sector and Atrocity Prevention: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010-11 Electoral Crisis and the Role of the Business Community in Preventing Violence in 2020

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Côte d’Ivoire's economic stability is critical to West Africa's development and inextricably tied to the global economy. Past periods of conflict, including the civil war from 2002-07 and the 2010-11 electoral crisis, resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars lost throughout the country and region. Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is less than a year away, and though atrocity crimes are not currently taking place, early warning signs of violence are already visible in a country that has never experienced a non-violent transfer of power. These signs warrant immediate attention, not only from Côte d’Ivoire’s political leadership and the international community, but also from business leaders. While the Ivorian government holds the keys to stability and peace throughout the electoral process, members of the business community—both Ivorian companies and international companies with economic interests in Côte d’Ivoire—can be critical allies in preventing violence in 2020. Business leaders should signal to the political parties that sacrificing the economy and civilian lives for political gain will not be accepted.
Topic:
Elections, Business, Violence, Private Sector, Instability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

3. Burma’s 2020 Elections and Ongoing Atrocity Risks Facing the Rohingya Population

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Burma’s 2020 national elections, scheduled for November 8th, will take place in a fragile context of ongoing risk of genocide for the country’s minority Rohingya population and continuing mass atrocities—including war crimes and crimes against humanity—against other ethnic populations. While the elections themselves may not be a trigger for mass atrocities in Burma, the responses to the elections from within the country and internationally has the ability to either exacerbate or mitigate future atrocityrelated risks. Parliamentary seats at the national and state level will be voted upon in the November elections. Only 75% of the total seats will be contested, as the country’s constitution reserves 25% of seats for the military.1 At the time of writing, it appears as though most Rohingya within Burma—members of an ethnic and religious minority that has been the victims of genocide—will be denied the right to vote.2 The approximately one million Rohingya who now live as refugees in Bangladesh will likewise be unable to vote in the elections. At least six Rohingya candidates have been prevented from running for office by the Union Election Commission (UEC), despite some of them having been approved candidates in the past and, in one case, having won a parliamentary seat. These candidates were blocked from running because they were unable to confirm the citizenship of their parents at the time of their birth.3 The UEC has applied such policies in a discriminatory fashion against Rohingya politicians,4 raising concerns that key Rohingya politicians will be unable to contest seats in the elections. This is not the first time the government has denied these rights, and the continued disenfranchisement and exclusion of Rohingya heightens their vulnerability to future atrocities. An election in which a people, who have been the victims of genocide, are denied the right to vote on the basis of their identity, is not a free, fair, or inclusive election. Any foreign government’s praise and support of Burma’s elections would be seen as endorsing a discriminatory process and lending support to the policies and behaviors that contributed to the genocide of the Rohingya and to ongoing risk. Instead, leaders around the world should use their available levers to mitigate atrocity risks, press for inclusivity regarding voting and political participation, and encourage other changes within Burma that advance the protection of the Rohingya and other vulnerable groups.
Topic:
Genocide, Elections, Risk, Atrocities, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
Burma and Southeast Asia

4. Breaking Cycles of Distrust: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Bangladesh

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report explores scenarios over the next 12–18 months in which Bangladesh could plausibly experience large-scale, systematic attacks on civilian populations. The authors selected Bangladesh for this study because it has consistently ranked in the top 10 percent of countries in the world on the Early Warning Project’s global statistical risk assessment for state-led mass killing; yet, there has been relatively little apparent policy attention to these risks. Staff of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide interviewed a wide variety of stakeholders in Bangladesh and elsewhere to identify potential mass atrocity scenarios and the underlying risks and mitigating factors. The risk of mass violence in Bangladesh is rooted in the competition between Bangladesh’s two main political parties and is likely to be particularly acute in the lead-up to and aftermath of the general election scheduled for late 2018. Contested or unclear electoral results present the greatest risk of mass killing. If there is disagreement regarding the election results, allegations of fraud or rigging, or a situation where neither the Awami League (AL) nor the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) receives the required number of seats to form a government, the deeply polarized political environment has created incentives for each major party to react violently. Supporters of the competing party are likely to be the main targets in any mass atrocity scenario; religious minorities face distinct but related risks as well.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Domestic Politics, Dialogue, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia