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2. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case
- Author:
- Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
3. A Regional Power Promoting Democracy? India's Involvement in Nepal (2005-2008)
- Author:
- Sandra Destradi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- According to the theory of “democratic peace,” India, as the largest democracy in the world and as South Asia's predominant regional power, should be expected to promote democracy in neighboring countries. However, New Delhi lacks any official democracy‐ promotion policy, and its past record on democracy in the region is mixed at best. Against this background, the paper analyzes the substantial role India came to play in the peace and democratization process in Nepal in the years 2005–2008, asking whether this constitutes a departure from New Delhi's traditional policy of noninterference in its neighbors' internal affairs and a move towards a more assertive approach to democracy promotion. The analysis shows that India's involvement in Nepal was the product of short‐term stability concerns rather than being an indicator of a long‐term change in strategy with the intention of becoming an active player in international democracy promotion.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, New Delhi, and Nepal
4. India and the Civil War in Sri Lanka: On the Failures of Regional Conflict Management in South Asia
- Author:
- Sandra Destradi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- The paper provides an assessment of India's role in the final years of the civil war in Sri Lanka (2003-2009). In particular, it looks for explanations for India's inability to act as a conflict manager in its own region, which is in contrast to predominant assumptions about the role of powerful regional states. It also seeks to explain the surprising turn in India's approach to the conflict, when in 2007 New Delhi began to rather explicitly support the Sri Lankan government—in disregard of its traditional preference for a peaceful solution and its sensitivity for the fate of Sri Lankan Tamils. While historical and domestic pressures led to India's indecisive approach during the years 2003-2007, starting from 2007 regional and international factors—most notably the skillful diplomacy of the Sri Lankan government and the growing Chinese presence there—induced New Delhi to support the government side in order to keep some leverage on Sri Lankan affairs. The analysis of the Sri Lankan case opens several avenues for further research in the fields of regional conflict management and foreign policy analysis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and New Delhi
5. Empire, Hegemony, and Leadership: Developing a Research Framework for the Study of Regional Powers
- Author:
- Sandra Destradi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Regional powers are often conceived of as “regional leading powers,” states which adopt a cooperative and benevolent attitude in their international relations with their neighbors. The paper argues that regional powers can follow a much wider range of foreign policy strategies in their region. Three ideal-typical regional strategies are identified: empire, hegemony, and leadership. The paper is devoted to a theory-led distinction and clarification of these three terms, which are often used interchangeably in the field of international relations. According to the goals pursued, to the means employed, and to other discriminating features such as the degree of legitimation and the type of self-representation by the dominant state, the paper outlines the essential traits of imperial, hegemonic, and leading strategies and identifies subtypes for better classifying hegemony and leadership.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Brazil