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1. Aid Supplies Over Time: Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The recent financial crisis has rekindled interest in the foreign aid supply behaviour of bilateral donors. Using the latest data covering the period 1960-2009, this paper examines how such behaviour is related to domestic factors. Based on a simple empirical model, a distinction is made between long-run supply trends and short-run dynamics, which motivates use of error correction methods. Panel econometric techniques are employed that are consistent in the presence of parameter heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results support the error correction framework, but point to very substantial heterogeneity between countries. There is also good evidence that donor behaviour continues to evolve over time. As such, past trends in aid supplies are unlikely to provide a good guide to those of the future.
Topic:
Development, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis

2. Whither aid? Financing development in Mozambique

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Careful consideration of the appropriate level and composition of aggregate public spending is vital in low income countries, especially in the presence of large volumes of foreign aid. Not only can expansion of the public sector weaken economic growth, but also provision of public services may be difficult to re­trench. These issues are relevant to Mozambique as the share of government in GDP already is comparatively high and strategic management of aggregate public spending historically has been weak. A new long-term macroeconomic model quantifies the implications of alternative aggregate spending profiles. It shows that small increases in minimum levels of government spending correspond to large increases in the duration to aid independence. Sharp reductions in aid availability would necessitate significant fiscal and economic adjustments, including cuts in real public spending per capita. For this reason, there is no room for complacency as regards the future of development finance to Mozambique.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Political Economy, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Alternative development financing mechanisms: pre-crisis trends and post-crisis outlook

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
External financial flows have long held a central place in debates about how to promote socio-economic development in poor countries. Alternative development theories typically map into different views regarding the desirable form and volume of external inflows. Over the past decade, development policy has witnessed a clear shift towards a poverty reduction agenda. Unsurprisingly, this has been accompanied by changes in views concerning development finance. A dominant refrain of the present agenda is that 'traditional' approaches to development finance, characterised by official bilateral and multilateral assistance to discrete projects through a combination of loans and credits, have been inadequate. In response, reforms of traditional aid and alternative approaches to financing have been advocated.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

4. From bear to bull? Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Capital Markets

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The current boom in global commodity prices and the expansion of Chinese interests in sub-Saharan Africa are part of a general warming of external investors to the region. This policy brief examines trends in commercial financial instruments such as equities, bonds and commercial bank lending and their impact on economic development. It reviews the nature and behaviour of these instruments in developing countries compared with more traditional development finance, such as foreign aid. This provides a foundation for analysing past and present trends in sub-Saharan Africa. It is argued that, like many other low income countries in the past, sub-Saharan Africa has received negligible inflows of external commercial financing. If anything, the region has been additionally excluded from these flows due to very weak levels of financial sector development even compared to other low income countries. At the same time, recent changes in global and domestic conditions mean that the situation is evolving rapidly. There is mounting evidence to show that many economies in sub-Saharan Africa are enjoying significantly expanded access to commercial external capital flows. Given good prospects that this trend will continue, the playing field for traditional donors is likely to alter significantly. The brief concludes by reflecting on how donors might respond to these emerging policy challenges.
Topic:
Development, Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa and China