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1. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options

Author:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

2. Pakistan’s Afghan perspective and policy options

Author:
Safdar Sial
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
With the aim of strengthening Pakistan’s support for the peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan, Pak Institute for Peace Studies initiated a comprehensive research and advocacy program in July 2021. Since then, PIPS has developed and published 8 quarterly monitors titled "Perspectives from Pakistan on Afghan peace and reconciliation," a same number of expert consultation reports, and 16 analytical papers embodied in 8 quarterly situation reviews titled "Afghanistan as seen from Pakistan." This policy-oriented final report builds upon the findings of the entire PIPS monitoring and analysis produced as well as consultations held over the project course. The main focus of this report is placed on exploring, analysing and informing Pakistan’s policy responses and options to support Afghan peace and stability. It comprises eight chapters. While chapter 2 provides a brief historical background of Pak-Afghan ties, chapter 3 narrates official and public responses from Pakistan since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021. Chapter 4 analyses the challenges confronting the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan and the following chapter discusses the fallout of emerging Afghan situation on Pakistan. Chapter 6 offers a detailed account of challenges and opportunities in Pakistan’s bilateral engagement with the Taliban-led Afghanistan. Chapter 7 evaluates evolving geopolitical dynamics and developments in relation to Afghanistan including international concerns and responses, the refugee issue, humanitarian aid and assistance, the recognition issue, as well as an analysis of geopolitical machinations and standpoints on Afghanistan and regional politics. The eighth and last chapter exclusively focuses Pakistan’s Afghan policy challenges and options as well as policy recommendations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

3. Perspectives from Pakistan on Afghan Peace and Reconciliation 8

Author:
Safdar Sial
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
Given the fast-evolving situation in Afghanistan and its multifaceted impact on Pakistan, Pak Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) has taken an initiative of monitoring, documenting, and analysing the opinions of different segments of Pakistani society and state institutions on the emerging Afghan situation. Under the Initiative, the institute has planned to prepare and publish quarterly reports, and the present one is the eighth of the series, covering the period from April to May 2023. This series of 'monitoring and analysis reports' constitutes one of the key components of a PIPS programme that aims at strengthening Pakistan's support for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. The reports are expected to improve knowledge-base and awareness of key stakeholders on Pakistan's Afghan perspective by demonstrating an overall understanding and critical review of a variety of viewpoints and positions, mainly around emerging events and developments in Afghanistan and their implications for Pakistan and the region.
Topic:
Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Social Media, Peace, Trade, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

4. Youth and the Social Contract in Pakistan

Author:
Marco Mezzera and Safdar Sial
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
Through the testing of a newly developed analytical framework, this study has tried to understand the structure and dynamics of the social contract in Pakistan, with the youth at its centre. It is therefore through the eyes of youth representatives and experts on youth-related issues in Pakistan that this report tries to define whether a social contract for Pakistani youth exists, its main features and challenges, and how it could be improved. The structure of the report follows the three main sections of the Analytical Framework as they apply to Pakistan, starting with the “Fundamental components of Pakistan’s social contract”. It then looks in more detail at the “Specific characteristics of Pakistan’s social contract”, and finally presents “Current youth concerns and expectations” in the country.
Topic:
Youth, Social Contract, Society, Political Participation, and Expectations
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

5. Pakistan Security Report 2021

Author:
Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
While the political and security situation in neighboring Afghanistan is still fluid, concerns are growing inside Pakistan about the possible fallout including in terms of increased insecurity, border tensions, and militant violence. For one, the developments in Afghanistan had already started influencing Pakistan’s militant landscape in 2021 as the year witnessed not only an increase in terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also an intensified terrorist violence by Baloch insurgent groups mainly in Balochistan. Meanwhile, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) province also emerged as one of the key actors of violence and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the year. While the Afghan Taliban find it difficult to convince the world to recognize their government and activate/unfreeze financial channels, they are also finding it increasingly hard to address the domestic challenges mainly those linked to governance, security, and intra-Afghan reconciliation. Despite their repeated promises to not allow anyone to use the Afghan soil against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban have yet not seriously considered to act against the TTP; except having facilitated the talks between Pakistani government and the TTP which have also not shown any successes so far. Nonetheless, there have been critical statements about Pakistan from some Taliban officials on multiple occasions about Pakistan’s democratic political system as well as fencing of the border by Pakistani security forces. Pakistan has eventually conveyed its concerns to the Afghan interim government about Afghan officials’ repeated efforts to damage the border fencing saying it was observing maximum restraint.
Topic:
Security, National Security, and International Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia

6. Pakistan Security Report 2020

Author:
Safdar Sial, Anam Fatima, Ahmed Ali, and Mikail Shaikh
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
The year 2020 sustained the declining trend in the incidence of terrorist violence in Pakistan that has been ongoing since 2014. The statistics provided by Pakistan Security Report 2020 indicated a 36 percent decrease in the number of terrorist attacks this year, as compared to 2019; the number of people killed in these attacks also plummeted by 38 percent. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. While multiple factors have contributed, including continuous operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces, and some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan (NAP), in reducing terrorist violence at the tactical and operational levels, but the militant and sectarian groups have been becoming active again of late. Secondly, the underlying factors of religious extremism and persecution persist in the country, which could feed into terrorist violence and/or faith-based violence by individuals and mobs. While the incidence and level of terrorist violence can be measured, it is very hard to measure extremism and extremist trends in a society. Therefore, a reduction in terrorist violence should not be taken as a measure of a reduction in extremism.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

7. Pakistan Security Report 2019

Author:
Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, Umar Farooq, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Akba Notezai, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
In 2019, Pakistan witnessed a further decline in the number of terrorist incidents and consequent casualties. The statistics of Pakistan Security Report 2019 show that terrorist attacks this year decreased by around 13 percent as compared to 2018, and the number of people killed in these attacks plummeted by 40pc. Indeed, there has been a gradual decrease in terrorist attacks and casualties since 2009 (with the exception of 2013, when a surge in sectarian violence mainly contributed to a rise in attacks and casualties). Continuous anti-militant operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces and police counterterrorism departments, as well as some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan, have apparently helped sustain that declining trend 2013 onwards. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. Certainly, most terrorist groups have been weakened but they are still present in physical and virtual spaces.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

8. Pakistan Security Report 2018

Author:
Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Ihsan Ghani, Ali Sher Khalti, Farhan Zahid, Zia Ur Rehman, Najam U Din, Ershad Mahmud, and Muhammad Akba Notezai
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
Despite a 29% decline in terrorist attacks in 2018, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associated groups, which now includes ISIS’s local chapter, remains the most potent threat. They were followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially in Balochistan. Two suicide attacks by a Baloch secessionist group in 2018 are alarming, but these should not forego attempts of reconciling them, which National Action Plan (NAP) clearly calls upon. Any attempt of mainstreaming banned outfits should be undertaken by a proper mechanism, so as not to be seen as excluding those already mainstreamed. These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2018.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

9. Pakistan Security Report 2017

Author:
Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Mumtaz Ali Khan, Shahzada Irfan Ahmed, Maaz Khan, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
Despite a 16% decline in terrorist attacks in 2017, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its associated groups remained the most potent threat; they were followed by nationalist-insurgent groups, especially Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front. What has been quite alarming is the increasing footprints of Daesh, especially in Balochistan and northern Sindh, carrying out the deadliest attacks. These realities require concerted effort and a revision of the National Action Plan, country’s counter-terror plan for yet ambiguity remains about who is responsible for NAP. It will be much better that parliament provides oversight to not only NAP, help revise it in light of new realities, but also lay down criteria for mainstreaming militants – which drew debate in 2017. These are some of the major findings of the Pakistan Security Report 2017.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

10. Pakistan Security Report 2016

Author:
Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, Zia Ur Rehman, Shahzada Zulfiqar, Ershad Mahmud, and Tahir Khan
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
While militant attacks declined in 2016, militant groups continue to remain a potent threat, with many widening their scope, narrowing their ideology, and evolving within the new spaces. These threats will linger on for long, unless the state moves beyond the hard approaches. In 2016, as with the preceding years, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remained the major actor of instability in the country, carrying out 106 attacks. 2016 also saw rise of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, with 66 attacks. Part of JA’s relative rise owes to the weakening of the TTP’s operational capability. This reality of how militant dynamics evolve should not be lost upon policy makers, note PIPS’s 2016 security report. Overall, the report notes, there has been a decline of 28% in terrorist attacks in 2016: 441 terrorist attacks took place in 57 districts/regions across Pakistan, claiming 908 lives. While suicide bombings have been receding, the reports note, 50% of the attacks in 2016 were targeted killing or shooting.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan