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1. Will elections in El Salvador create a narcostate?

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
El Salvador will choose a new president in a runoff election on March 9. The nation's decision may prove critical to Salvadoran democracy and regional security, in light of substantial evidence linking the ruling party candidate to narcotraffickers, terrorist groups, and violent street gangs. Moreover, foreign interference in the form of billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues has given the ruling party an advantage, despite the fact that its economic policies have increased poverty and stunted economic growth.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America

2. To secure southern border, US must lead international effort to stabilize Central America

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and José R. Cárdenas
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The recent influx of illegal Central American immigrants (including a surge of unaccompanied minors) into the United States stems in part from violent, sophisticated drug trafficking operations in those nations and governments that are either unwilling or unprepared to confront organized crime. These operations are not only driving many more immigrants to the United States but also threatening US national security. Investing additional money in fences and border patrol agents alone will not solve US illegal immigration problems. Short-term steps for the US should include thwarting human smuggling, addressing human rights and refugee concerns before people abandon their countries, and mobilizing international cooperation and funding. To address immigration and security problems in the long term, a US-led multinational initiative is needed to better equip Central American governments to confront criminal organizations and drug trafficking and to hold corrupt officials accountable.
Topic:
Narcotics Trafficking, Immigration, Border Control, and Reform
Political Geography:
Central America

3. Honduras under siege

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and José Javier Lanza
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As stepped-up counternarcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico have increased pressure on regional drug trafficking networks, organized crime syndicates have relocated operations to Central America, where law enforcement agencies and institutions are ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught. These multibillion-dollar gangs are making common cause with some local politicians who are following a playbook honed by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. The result in Venezuela was the birth of a narcostate, and similar dramas are playing out in Central America. Like Chávez, caudillos are using the democratic process to seek power, weaken institutions, and undermine the rule of law—generating turmoil that accommodates narcotrafficking. Making matters worse for Honduras is that left-wing activists abroad, in support of ousted president and Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya, are waging a very public campaign of outlandish claims seeking to block any US assistance to help the Honduran government resist the drug cartels. It is imperative that US policymakers vigorously support democracy, the rule of law, and antidrug programs in Honduras.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, and Mexico

4. Oh, Brother! Another Castro Clings to Power in Cuba

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
One step ahead of the devil himself, Fidel Castro is proposing to pass the baton to his revolutionary partner and younger brother, Raúl. With characteristic audacity, the old dictator is hoping that he can bamboozle a gullible international community into recognizing such a succession as a fait accompli. Of course, there is no reason that the successor regime will be able to consummate this arrangement as long as the rest of the world gives the welfare of the Cuban people a second thought. Fidel's disintegration makes way for an extraordinarily expectant time in Cuba's history. Men and women of good will on the island may yet snatch their future from a decrepit and discredited regime, and outsiders' only role should be to help them in every way possible. We should bear in mind at this critical hour that one false move—by the United States, in particular—could confer legitimacy on a “new” Cuban dictator and consign 11 million Cubans to prolonged desperation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Communism
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

5. Lula Can Make 2008 a Very Good Year

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
If Time magazine had wanted to recognize a true democrat and reformer as the 2007 Person of the Year, they would have chosen Brazil's president Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva over Russia's Vladimir Putin. Working within Brazil's free, pluralistic democratic system, Lula has focused on economic growth and social justice, getting tangible results with his new anti-hunger and poverty programs. Unlike Putin, Lula is also strengthening key institutions and the rule of law.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

6. A New President, a New Paradigm

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
U.S. policy in Latin America and the Caribbean always seems to inspire criticism: Too much, too little, too late. Back off. Get in the game. Don't just stand there, do something. Don't do something, just stand there. Our geographic closeness has meant a rich, natural partnership, but this proximity easily stirs concerns over sovereignty. When the United States is preoccupied with events in other parts of the world, regional pundits accuse Washington of indifference. If we speak clearly on the issues in Latin America, we are excoriated for poking our nose “where it doesn't belong.” So where does this leave U.S. foreign policy in the region? It could be that what we do may not be as important as how we do it. The first step in developing a new paradigm for engaging the Americas is using the 2008 election cycle here at home to develop a serious domestic constituency for our policy. Then we should shape that policy through a conscientious dialogue with stakeholders in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, and Central America

7. Solving Our Immigration Problem: From Controversy to Consensus

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and Megan Davy
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The thorny issue of immigration may yet prove to be a winner for President George W. Bush, but he has to gamble that leaders from both parties are more interested in solving this problem than in saving the debate for the 2008 campaign. The Bush administration can be faulted for failing to put more security resources at our borders after the terrorist attacks of September 11 and for not advancing the president's comprehensive immigration reform before the debate was dominated by shrill voices. President Bush's approach on immigration, however, remains a sound one, and his declarations during his March visit to Mexico indicate a dogged desire to tackle this issue. A Democratic Congress may find that it needs to demonstrate its ability to find practical, bipartisan solutions to even the toughest of problems.
Topic:
International Relations and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Central America, and Mexico

8. Two Visions of Energy in the Americas

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
"America is addicted to oil," President George W. Bush told the nation in his January 31 State of the Union address, "which is often imported from unstable parts of the world." Spelling out a plan for using technology "to develop cleaner, cheaper, more reliable alternative energy sources," the president set a worthy goal to "make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past." Although the president's long-term vision is of a country less dependent on petroleum, a near-term solution for being less reliant on "unstable" sources of energy can be found in encouraging resource-rich nations in the Western Hemisphere to adopt sound policies for developing their oil and gas industries. Without a concerted effort right now engaging government and industry, however, we may witness some countries with vast potential embrace statist models that squander their natural resources and make them less reliable and less stable partners.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and America

9. Launching an "Opportunity Partnership" in the Americas

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The United States has gone around the world seeking to address challenges to our security and prosperity, but a significant opportunity is readily available closer to home. Helping this country's fastest growing trade partners and top energy suppliers right here in the Western hemisphere achieve and institutionalize open, competitive economies will produce a century's worth of prosperity for the United States and its natural partners. Like-minded governments in the Americas should work together to launch an "Opportunity Partnership" that would sustain a reform agenda and alleviate the region's chronic poverty by empowering the poor both economically and politically.
Topic:
International Relations and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
South America and North America

10. The Summit of the Americas: Rescuing the Reform Agenda

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The fourth regional Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, Argentina, on November 4–5, will be a test of courage for the region's leaders. Pressured by genuine popular dissatisfaction, they will either commit unequivocally to finish the hard work of creating economic opportunity for the region's 128 million poor, or they will let warmed-over populism undermine the consensus behind free-market reforms and democracy itself. The stakes are high, and the leaders must use the summit process to advance the reform agenda for their peoples' sake. At the summit, President George W. Bush will, no doubt, press his colleagues to reemphasize their commitments to defend democracy and the rule of law, deepen economic reforms, and expand trade as a recipe for sustained, equitable growth. But there is a significant number of Latin leaders who may try to scuttle this work plan and serve up sympathetic rhetoric to cynically court the poor.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
America, Argentina, and South America