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1. When Central Banks Surprise: Why It Is Important and What Policy Makers Need to Do about It

Author:
Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos, and Samantha St. Amand
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There is a risk that positive developments in the US economy and in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance could induce global financial volatility and further exacerbate global economic imbalances. Empirical evidence suggests that global asset prices are responsive not just to US policy actions, but to news events concerning developments in the US economy and to the tones of Federal Reserve statements. Central banks need to continue to be mindful about the potential repercussions of shocking markets through statements and policy actions. The Group of Twenty (G20) ought to work together to implement coordinated, mutually beneficial economic policies. This includes being cognizant of the spillover effects of domestic policies, and seeking to minimize them.
Topic:
Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

2. What Drove the Mid-2000s' Explosiveness in Alternative Energy Stock Prices? Evidence from US, European and Global Indices

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Philipp Kaufmann
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Soaring prices in European alternative energy stocks and their subsequent tumble have attracted attention from both investors and academics. This paper extends recent research to an international setting and analyzes whether the explosive price behaviour of the mid-2000s was driven by rising crude oil prices and an overall bullish market sentiment. Inflation-adjusted US alternative energy stock prices do not exhibit signs of explosiveness. By contrast, we find strong evidence of explosive price behaviour for European and global sector indices, even after controlling for a set of explanatory variables. Interestingly, while the sector indices plunged with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, idiosyncratic components continued to rise and did not start to decline until after world equity markets had already begun to recover in 2009. This finding suggests a substantial revaluation of alternative energy stock prices in light of intensifying sector competition and shrinking sales margins, and casts some doubts on the existence of a speculative bubble. Nevertheless, this paper observes temporary episodes of explosiveness between 2005 and 2007 followed by rapid collapses, indicating the presence of some irrational exuberance among investors.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

3. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Canada