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12. The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich and the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Inclusive growth is widely embraced as the central economic goal for developing countries, but the concept is not well defined in the development economics literature. Since the early 1990s, the focus has been primarily on pro-poor growth, with the "poor" being people living on less than $1 day, or in some regions $2 day. The idea of pro-poor growth emerged in the early 1990s as a counterpoint to a concern with growth alone (measured in per-capita income) and is generally defined as growth which benefits the poor as much or more than the rest of the population. Examples include conditional cash transfers, which target the poor while minimizing the fiscal burden on the public sector, and donors' emphasizing primary over higher education as an assured way to benefit the poor while investing in long-term growth through increases in human capital. Yet these pro-poor, inclusive policies are not necessarily without tradeoffs in fostering long-run growth. In this paper I argue that the concept of inclusive growth should go beyond the traditional emphasis on the poor (and the rest) and take into account changes in the size and economic command of the group conventionally defined as neither poor nor rich, i.e., the middle class.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
13. The Washington Consensus: Assessing a Damaged Brand
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, Augusto de la Torre, and Felipe Valencia Caicedo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In this paper we analyze the Washington Consensus, which at its original formulation reflected views not only from Washington but also from Latin America. We trace the life of the Consensus from a Latin American perspective in terms of evolving economic development paradigms. We document the extensive implementation of Consensus-style reforms in the region as well as the mismatch between reformers' expectations and actual outcomes, in terms of growth, poverty reduction, and inequality. We then present an assessment of what went wrong with the Washington Consensus-style reform agenda, using a taxonomy of views that put the blame, alternatively, on (i) shortfalls in the implementation of reforms combined with impatience regarding their expected effects; (ii) fundamental flaws—in either the design, sequencing, or basic premises of the reform agenda; and (iii) incompleteness of the agenda that left out crucial reform needs, such as volatility, technological innovation, institutional change and inequality.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Washington and Latin America
14. Cash on Delivery: A New Approach to Foreign Aid
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, Ayah Mahgoub, and William D. Savedoff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Foreign aid often works, but it is often criticized for being ineffective or even for undermining progress in developing countries. This brief describes a new approach, Cash on Delivery Aid, which gives recipients full responsibility and authority over funds paid in proportion to verified measures of progress. Through the example of using COD Aid to support universal primary-school completion, the brief illustrates a practical approach to aid that holds the promise of making aid more effective and less burdensome by fundamentally restructuring the relationships of accountability among funders, recipients, and their respective constituencies.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Third World, and Foreign Aid
15. Schooling Inequality, Crises, and Financial Liberalization in Latin America
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall, Gunilla Pettersson, and Jere R. Behrman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Latin America is characterized by high and persistent schooling, land, and income inequalities and extreme income concentration. In a highly unequal setting, powerful interests are more likely to dominate politics, pushing for policies that protect privileges rather than foster competition and growth. As a result, changes in policies that political elites resist may be postponed in high-inequality countries to the detriment of overall economic performance.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, Globalization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
16. It\'s One Climate Policy World Out There—Almost
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall and Jan von der Goltz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In the run-up to the December 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, the authors surveyed members of the international development community with a special interest in climate change on three sets of detailed questions: (1) what action different country groups should take to limit climate change; (2) how much non-market funding there should be for emissions reductions and adaptation in developing countries, and how it should be allocated; and (3) which institutions should be involved in delivering climate assistance, and how the system should be governed. About 500 respondents from 88 countries completed the survey between November 19–24, 2009. About a third of the respondents grew up in developing countries, although some of them now live in developed countries. A broad majority of respondents from both developing and developed countries held very similar views on the responsibilities of the two different country groups, including on issues that have been very controversial in the negotiations. Most favored binding commitments now by developed countries, and commitments by 2020 by \'advanced developing countries\' (Brazil, China, India, South Africa and others), limited use of offsets by developed countries, strict monitoring of compliance with commitments, and the use of trade measures (e.g. carbon-related tariffs) only in very narrow circumstances. Respondents from developing countries favored larger international transfers than those from developed countries, but the two groups share core ideas on how transfers should be allocated. Among institutional options for managing climate programs, a plurality of respondents from developed (48 percent) and developing (56 percent) countries preferred a UN-managed world climate fund, while many from both groups also embraced the UN Adaptation Fund\'s approach, which is to accredit national institutions within countries which are eligible to manage implementation of projects that the Fund finances. Among approaches to governance, the most support went to the Climate Investment Fund model—of equal representation of developing and developed countries on the board.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and United Nations
17. Energy Needs and Efficiency, Not Emissions: Re-framing the Climate Change Narrative
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall and Arvind Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The basic narrative on climate change between the rich and poor worlds has been problematic. The focus on emissions has made industrial countries inadequately sensitive to the unmet energy needs in developing countries. And it has led developing countries to adopt the rhetoric of recrimination and focus on the legacy of historical emissions by industrial countries. The ensuing blame game has led to the current gridlock. As a way out, we suggest some simple principles for determining equitable distribution of emission cuts between developed and developing countries to meet global targets. These principles emphasize basic energy needs and the equality of access to energy opportunities rather than emissions, taking account of development levels, as well as energy efficiency in creating such opportunities. To apply these principles, we develop a new data set to distinguish between energy needs and emissions-intensity for major developing and developed-country emitters and quantify the relationship between these variables and changes in income (or development). This quantification allows us to project emissions levels in 2050. Our main finding is that meeting global emissions targets equitably requires very large, probably revolutionary, improvements in the carbon intensity of production and consumption, much larger than seen historically. We conclude that a new shared narrative that places equality of energy opportunities at the forefront would naturally shift the focus of international cooperation from allocating emissions “rights” or reductions and blame to maximizing efforts to achieving technology gains and rapidly transferring them worldwide. Abandoning the setting of emissions targets for developing counries and creating instead a framework where all countries contribute to maximizing technology creation and diffusion is what Copenhagen should be about.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements
18. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficien t of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
19. Reflections on the Macro Foundations of the Middle Class in the Developing World
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In this working paper I define inclusive growth as growth conducive to increasing the size and economic command of the middle class. I suggest a definition of the middle class based on absolute and relative measures of country-based income distributions, and present evidence of change in the size of the “middle class” for selected developing countries. I then review how macroeconomic policies shape the environment and incentives for inclusive growth, focusing on three areas: fiscal discipline, the more rule-based the better; a fair tax and redistribution system; and a business friendly exchange rate.
- Topic:
- Education and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Central America
20. The World Bank: Toward a Global Club
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- In this Essay, CGD president Nancy Birds all describes the World Bank as a global club with a structure close to that of a credit union in which the members are nations. Its mission, as originally conceived—to promote broadly shared and sustainable global prosperity—serves the common interests of all its country members. In light of this, Birds all addresses the issues that arise with respect to its current governance structure and how these issues affect the Bank's legitimacy, effectiveness and relevance in the global system.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Political Economy, and Poverty
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