Author: Mona Yacoubian / Political Geography: Arabia

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
Topic:: Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Lebanon's recently announced national unity government has eased fears that the country would once again be mired in a dangerous political stalemate. Yet, despite the recent breakthrough, Lebanon's unstable equilibrium -- marked by both internal and regional tensions -- could still devolve into serious violence. Deep seated sectarian animosities persist, raising the prospects for political instability and civil strife if unaddressed. Regionally, mounting tensions with Israel raise the worrisome possibility of isolated border incidents spiraling into more serious conflict. Taken together these two underlying challenges to stability -- internal civil unrest and regional conflict with Israel -- could undermine Lebanon's fragile peace. This paper will examine internal challenges to Lebanon's stability.
Topic:: Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

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