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1. Democracy in the Middle East & North Africa

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are growing increasingly concerned about the potential problems associated with a democratic political system. Over the last decade, but particularly within the last five years, there has been a dramatic increase in the degree to which the region’s citizens believe democracies are bad for economic performance, stability, and decisiveness. In some countries, the degree to which concern about these potential problems has increased is especially dramatic. For example, Tunisians and Iraqis are now nearly 50 points more likely to say that democracy has some of these limitations than they were just a decade ago. Ultimately, citizens across MENA seek solutions to major problems in their lives. These include but are not limited to stagnant economies, high unemployment rates, rising cost of living, and, in some countries, internal instability. Until recently, many appeared to believe that democracy was a system that could solve such challenges. Over the last 75 years, democracies have tended to be wealthier, more politically stable, less corrupt, and more efficient at meeting the basic needs of citizens than authoritarian alternatives.1 In recent years, however, many non-democratic systems may appear more attractive, including the Chinese system that has led to rapid economic growth over the last 40 years. In this new global environment, many in MENA appear uncertain if democracy can effectively deliver solutions to their country’s problems.2 Moreover, looking at the experience of MENA countries over the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that the region’s citizens have increasing doubts about the benefits of democracy. Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq are the countries across the region where elections have been the most meaningful over the past decade, with each having experienced a change in government based on results at the ballot box. Yet, their collective experience clearly demonstrates that democracy has not been a panacea for their respective challenges. Tunisia’s GDP per capita is now lower than it was in 2011, Lebanon has faced financial collapse, and Iraq suffered significant internal instability
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

2. Public Views of the U.S.-China Competition in MENA

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the global competition between the U.S. and China has been on the rise. China’s increased global outlook, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has led to a significantly greater economic engagement with countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). At the same time, the U.S. continues its retrenchment from the region focusing on a broader pivot to Asia. How have these developments affected views toward both countries? Arab Barometer’s wave seven, the largest public opinion survey of its kind across MENA since the time of COVID, provides insight into these questions. Across MENA, China remains more popular than the U.S. Among the nine countries surveyed, only in Morocco is the U.S. more popular overall than China. In the remainder, China tends to be significantly more favored than the U.S. Yet, this story may be gradually changing. When asked about closer economic ties between their country and the two global powers, in the majority of countries surveyed, citizens are significantly less likely to say they want stronger ties with China than they were in 2018-19. In no country is there an increased desire for stronger economic ties with China while in multiple cases there has been a 20-point shift against China. By comparison, in most countries the desire for closer economic ties with the U.S. has increased or remained unchanged over the same period. This outcome suggests that BRI may not be having the intended effects, with citizens now moving away from China overall.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3. Youth in MENA: Findings from the Fifth Wave of the Arab Barometer

Author:
Amaney Jamal, Michael Robbins, and Salma Al-Shami
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Youth economic frustration across MENA is increasing ▶ Youth have little trust in governments, which are widely viewed as being corrupt, leading to a potential crisis of legitimacy in the region ▶ However, views of youth differ relatively little from older generations in this regard ▶ Youth are more likely to want to emigrate and to participate in informal politics ▶ Arab publics, including youth, generally affirm women’s equal rights but less accepting of their equal roles in society
Topic:
Corruption, Human Rights, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Women, Democracy, and Youth
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

4. The 2019 Algerian Protests

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
As a country that experienced few protests during the Arab uprisings of 2011, this year’s demonstrations in Algeria caught most observers by surprise. The massive outpouring of public opinion, which has continued for months, has toppled a long-standing leader and continues to challenge the ruling system. The 2019 Arab Barometer public opinion survey was conducted on the eve of the protests, lending unique insight into several key questions: Were these protests to be expected? What drives the protests? And, what do Algerians want for the future? The survey results demonstrate that declining conditions meant a breakdown of the social contract among all segments of society, which resulted in a high level of protest activity in recent years. However, these protests occurred largely outside the capital, leading many analysts to likely overlook them. Nevertheless, the survey suggests that while Algerians know what they do not want, they are divided on what they seek to achieve for the future, remaining skeptical of democracy and divided on the role of religion in public life. In other words, there is not a clear way forward or clear destination – instead, Algerians appear open to any system of governance that can bring improved governance and better economic outcomes.
Topic:
Religion, Social Movement, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, and Social Contract
Political Geography:
Middle East, Algeria, and North Africa

5. Migration in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Across the Middle East and North Africa, roughly one-in-three citizens are considering emigrating from their homeland. This level represents a dramatic increase since 2016, which ended a long-term decline in the percentage of citizens who considered migrating. For example, the percentage of Jordanians who want to migrate is 23-points higher than in 2016 while the increase among Moroccans is 17 points during the same period. Smaller but sizable increases have also taken place in other countries like Egypt (+10 points). Citizens are more likely to want to leave if they are young, well educated and male. Youth are the more likely to want to leave, with more than half of those ages 18-29 thinking about migrating in five of 11 countries surveyed. Additionally, in most countries those with a higher level of education are also more disposed to move abroad, raising the specter of brain drain in many countries. The predominate reason some Arab citizens seek to leave their homeland are economic reasons, reflecting a broader frustration of years of economic stagnation. Other commonly cited reasons include corruption, security concerns or to pursue educational opportunities. Notably, older potential migrants are more likely to cite economic factors as the primary reason behind their decision while younger potential migrants are more likely to name corruption, for example. Europe is the most commonly cited destination for potential migrants, especially among those living in the Maghrib countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. The next most commonly favored destination are Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly among migrants from Egypt, Yemen and Sudan. Meanwhile, Jordanians and Lebanese are especially likely to favor the U.S. or Canada. Although most potential migrants would only leave if they had the required papers, substantial percentages say they would consider migrating illegally, including roughly four-in-ten in six of 11 countries surveyed. Those who would consider migrating illegally are more likely to be young, male, and have lower levels of education, likely reflecting the limited opportunities these citizens perceive for a future in their homeland. These are among the key findings from 11 nationally representative public opinion surveys conducted in across the Middle East and North Africa by the Arab Barometer in September 2018-May 2019. The surveys included more than 27,000 face-to-face interviews in the respondent’s place of residence and each has a margin of error of ±2 percent.
Topic:
Migration and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

6. Women in the Middle East and North Africa: A Divide between Rights and Roles

Author:
Michael Robbins and Kathrin Thomas
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), most publics surveyed believe women should have equal rights to men in a variety of areas including access to university education (75 percent), employment (84 percent), and political oce (62 percent). • Yet, despite widespread support for women’s rights, majorities in many Arab publics favor limiting the roles women play in society. For example, one third believe women are as effective in public leadership compared with men. Six-in-ten believe that the husband should have the final say in decision making within the family. • Unsurprisingly, men are, in general, less supportive of women’s rights and more restrictive in their desired roles for women. Additionally, citizens with lower levels of education are often more likely to hold unequal views, suggesting that as educational attainment increases across MENA, attitudes toward women may also shift. • Overall, these results from nationally representative public opinion surveys carried out by the Arab Barometer imply that exports to improve women’s equality need to move beyond ensuring equal rights to focus on attitudinal shifts about the roles women should play in society.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Politics, Public Opinion, Women, Democracy, Equality, and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

7. What Accounts for the Success of Islamist Parties in the Arab World

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Islamist organizations are generally considered to be the strongest and most credible opposition to incumbent regimes throughout the Arab world. Fear of Islamic takeovers has led regimes and other outside powers to justify not holding free elections, citing examples that include the Algerian election of 1991, the Iranian Revolution, the AKP victory in Turkey and the perceived popularity of Islamist opposition groups throughout much of the Arab world (Brumberg 2002). Yet, other analysts have questioned the actual strength of Islamist movements within the Arab world, noting that although Islamists may be the main challenger, few have actually been successful in taking power (Roy 1994).
Topic:
Islam and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Arabia, and Algeria