1. CSIS Brief: Beyond the Brink: Escalation and Conflict in U.S.-China Economic Relations
- Author:
- Matthew P. Goodman, Dylan Gerstel, and Pearl Risberg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- As the United States and China mark their 40th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations in 2019, the world’s most important bilateral relationship is increasingly defined by mistrust, competition, and uncertainty. After four decades of deepening economic integration, the talk in Washington today is about the extent to which the two economies will “decouple” over the years ahead. In a recent study, the CSIS Simon Chair drew on several different academic disciplines to model how an economic conflict between the United States and China could escalate and eventually de-escalate. Our findings suggest that economic conflict is likely to be an enduring feature of the U.S.-China relationship for many years to come. Until perceptions of relative costs in the two countries shift, Washington and Beijing seem set on a path of continued escalation, no substantial trade deal, and at least partial decoupling of their economies.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Conflict, Trade Policy, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America