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1. Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational Regions

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Stephanié Rossouw
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A small but growing literature has been concerned about the economic (and environmental) vulnerability on the level of countries. Less attention is paid to the economic vulnerability of different regions within countries. By focusing on the vulnerability of subnational regions, our paper contributes to the small literature on the 'vulnerability of place'. We see the vulnerability of place as being due to vulnerability in various domains, such as economic vulnerability, vulnerability of environment, and governance, demographic and health fragilities. We use a subnational dataset on 354 magisterial districts from South Africa, recognize the potential relevance of measuring vulnerability on a subnational level, and construct a local vulnerability index (LVI) for the various districts. We condition this index on district per capita income and term this a vulnerability intervention index (VII) interpreting this as an indicator of where higher income per capita, often seen in the literature as a measure of resilience, will in itself be unlikely to reduce vulnerability.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. State Fragility: Concept and Measurement

Author:
Mark McGillivray and Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The international donor community has grave concerns about the prospects for poverty reduction in what it terms fragile states. A state is classified as fragile if its country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) score falls below a particular threshold. Recognizing that all states are fragile to varying degrees, this paper questions the method used by the international community to deem a country fragile. This paper develops a framework that uses fuzzy-set theory to deem a country as fragile. Fuzzy sets allow for gradual transition from one state to another while also allowing one to incorporate rules and goals, and hence are more appropriate for measuring outcomes that are ambiguous. Such ambiguity is an inherent characteristic of cross-country fragility classifications. The paper applies its framework to 76 low-income countries, for which the CPIA data are publicly available. The fragile state group that this framework provides is compared to that which the international donor community has constructed.
Topic:
Development and International Political Economy

3. Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The first Millennium Development Goal aims to halve the number of people in the world living in extreme poverty. In this research brief, emanating from the UNU-WIDER project on “Fragility and Development”, the premise is that we should also be concerned about households which are vulnerable to poverty. This includes those who have little likelihood of escaping from poverty and those who are at risk of falling into poverty in the future. Household vulnerability to poverty is affected by, and affects, vulnerability in other dimensions and levels, such as the vulnerability of a country or region to natural hazards and macro-economic shocks. To address household vulnerability in developing countries requires an understanding of the concept and nature of vulnerability, its measurement and its application. Therefore, this research brief asks what is vulnerability? How can vulnerability be measured? How should households, governments and development agencies respond to vulnerability?
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Poverty, and Third World

4. Measuring Human Well-being: Key Findings and Policy Lessons

Author:
Mark McGillivray and David Clark
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This Policy Brief is an outcome of the UNU-WIDER research project 'Social Development Indicators'. The overall aim of the project was to provide insights into how human well-being might be better conceptualized and, in particular, measured, by reviewing various concepts and measures and then offering recommendations for future practice and research. This Policy Brief outlines a contextual background to the project, by introducing some key concepts and measures used in assessing achieved well-being, especially at the national level. Highlighted are some of the best known and most widely used well-being measures. The Policy Brief then provides an overview of the five edited volumes that have emerged from the project, summarizing some of the main conclusions.
Topic:
International Relations, Demographics, Development, and Poverty

5. A Wider Approach to Aid Effectiveness: Correlated Impacts on Health, Wealth, Fertility and Education

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Sebastian Torres, and David Fielding
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we discuss the results of research into the impact of foreign aid on human development. Rather than focussing on per capita income, as is common in the existing literature, we look at how aid impacts on a range of human development indicators, including measures, of health, education and fertility, and allow for the fact that these different dimensions of wellbeing are likely to interact with each other. Overall, aid is found to have a substantial positive impact on many development outcome.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Health, and Humanitarian Aid

6. It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Simon Feeny, Robert Lensink, and Niels Hermes
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper surveys 50 years of empirical research on the macroeconomic impact of aid, looking mainly at studies examining the link between aid and growth. It argues that studies dating until the late 1990s produced either contradictory or inconclusive results. Aid either worked, or it didn't, according to this research. The paper then highlights a major shift in the literature that coincided with the release of the World Bank's Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't and Why. Practically all research published since that report agrees with its general finding that aid works, to the extent that in its absence growth would be lower. One controversy may therefore have been settled. Yet, we show, the report has set-off an intense de bate over the context in which aid works. That debate centres on whether the effectiveness of these inflows depends on the policy regime of recipient countries. Some possible avenues through which the heat might be taken out of this debate are considered.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Development, and Economics

7. Aid, Debt Burden and Government Fiscal Behaviour: A New Model Applied to Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
Mark McGillivray and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on public sector fiscal behaviour in Côte d'Ivoire. A special interest is the relationship between aid, debt servicing and debt, given that Côte d'Ivoire is a highly indebted country. The theoretical model employed differs from those of previous studies by highlighting the interaction between debt servicing and the other fiscal variables. This model is estimated using 1975–99 time series data. Key findings are that the bulk of aid is allocated to debt servicing and that aid is associated with increases in the level of public debt.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

8. Descriptive and Prescriptive Analyses of Aid Allocation: Approaches, Issues and Consequences

Author:
Mark McGillivray
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Studies of the inter-recipient allocation of aid may be categorized threefold. First, there are those which attempt to explain the observed allocation of aid. Second, there are those which seek to describe or evaluate the allocation of aid against normative criteria. Third, there are those which seek to prescribe the inter-recipient allocation of aid by calculating the amounts of aid each country should receive, also based on normative criteria. This paper looks at the second and third categories of studies. It commences by looking at the different approaches or descriptive measures used, and then repeats this exercise for the prescriptive literature. It then compares the prescribed allocations of the different approaches used in the literature. These allocations are compared to actual allocations and then evaluated against various normative criteria. This reveals significant differences, both between prescribed and actual allocations and the evaluations of the different prescriptive approaches.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty

9. Aid Effectiveness and Selectivity: Integrating Multiple Objectives into Aid Allocations

Author:
Mark McGillivray
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper surveys recent research on aid and growth. It also provides an overview of research on inter-recipient aid allocation. The overall focus of the paper is on the relevance of these issues for poverty-efficient aid, defined as a pattern of inter-recipient aid allocation which maximises poverty reduction. It identifies a range of poverty- reducing criteria on which aid allocation or selectivity might be based, calling for a broader selectivity framework. The paper argues that this framework should be built on a recognition that the effectiveness of aid in increasing growth, and by implication in reducing poverty, is contingent on a range of factors in addition to the quality of recipient country policy regimes. These factors include political stability, democracy, post conflict reconstruction, and economic vulnerability.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, and Poverty