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22. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
- Topic:
- Security and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
23. Famine and Reform in North Korea
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea has been experiencing an ongoing food crisis for more than a decade. A famine in the late 1990s resulted in the deaths of perhaps 600,000 to 1 million people out of a pre-famine population of roughly 22 million. Since then, a combination of humanitarian food aid and development assistance has ameliorated the situation somewhat, but according to the World Food Programme (WFP) and other observers, as of this writing the country is once again on the precipice of another famine.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Nuclear Weapons, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, North Korea, and Korea
24. The Future of North Korea
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Korean peninsula has entered a period of considerable change and uncertainty. This paper attempts to sketch out how internal and external forces may shape outcomes in North Korea over the next several years. The range of plausible outcomes is huge, and the paper identifies four possible end states: successful reform and engagement, “muddling through,” elite conflict that could affect the nature of the state, if not the regime, and finally, mass mobilization that could threaten the regime itself. This analysis proceeds under a number of assumptions.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and North Korea
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