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1. Which Migrant Jobs are Linked with the Adoption of Novel Technologies, Robotisation, and Digitalisation?

Author:
Antea Barišić, Mahdi Ghodsi, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In recent decades, the development of novel technologies has intensified due to globalisation, prompting countries to enhance competitiveness through innovation. These technologies have significantly improved global welfare, particularly in sectors like healthcare, where they have facilitated tasks and boosted productivity, for example playing a crucial role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, certain technologies, such as robots, can negatively impact employment by replacing workers and tasks. Additionally, the emergence of artificial intelligence as digital assets not only replaces specific tasks but also introduces complexities that may displace employees who are unable to adapt. While the existing literature extensively explores the heterogeneous effects of these technologies on labour markets, studies of their impact on migrant workers remain scarce. This paper presents pioneering evidence on the effects of various novel technologies on migrant employment in the European Union. The analysis covers 18 EU member states from 2005 to 2019 focusing on the impact of novel innovations, robot adoption, three types of digital assets, and total factor productivity, on migrant employment. The key findings reveal that innovations measured by the number of granted patents increase both the number and proportion of migrant workers relative to the overall workforce. While robots do replace jobs, their impact on native workers surpasses that of migrant workers, resulting in a higher share of migrant workers following robot adoption. Total factor productivity positively influences migrant workers, while the effects of digital assets are heterogeneous. Moreover, the impacts of these technologies on migrant workers vary significantly across different occupation types and educational levels.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, Innovation, Robotics, Migrant Workers, Digitalization, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Europe

2. The Factors Driving Migration Intentions and Destination Preferences in Central, East and Southeast European Countries

Author:
Antea Barišić, Mahdi Ghodsi, Alireza Sabouniha, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the determinants of outward migration decisions while focusing on CESEE countries and using data from the OeNB Euro Survey conducted by the Oesterrichische Nationalbank (OeNB), a data source that has yet to be exploited at the individual level. Applying a two-stage Heckman procedure, we identify the determinants of the intention to migrate, including age, gender, ties at home, household characteristics and income. In the second stage, we analyse the characteristics of those who expressed a desire to migrate and investigate the determinants of the choice of the respective destination, distinguishing between EU15, EU-CEE and extra-EU countries. The insights in this paper might help to inform fact-based migration and public policies in addition to laying some groundwork for further research (a) concerning the impact of new technologies and demographic trends on the intentions to migrate as well as (b) establishing a firmer link between the intention to migrate and actual migration.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, Pull Factor, and Choice Model
Political Geography:
Europe

3. Salmonella Program in the European Union and the Trade Dispute with Brazil at the World Trade Organisation: A Partial Equilibrium Framework

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This contribution provides a cost-benefit analysis in a partial equilibrium framework to investigate the welfare consequences of a prohibitive regulatory non-tariff measure (NTM) in the form of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure aimed at a foreign product with perceived negative characteristics. Two groups of consumers are distinguished: one that is indifferent to the foreign product’s negative attributes, and another that is concerned about them. Different scenarios concerning the welfare gains from the introduction of an NTM are explored. The results depend on consumer awareness and information policies pursued by the government of the importing country or group of countries. The theoretical model is illustrated with data on the production and importation of prepared poultry in the EU. This paper focusses on the recent Dispute Settlement (DS) case 607 at the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was initiated by Brazil in November 2021 to consult with the EU on restrictive measures imposed on the importation of prepared and preserved poultry. These restrictions are in line with the comprehensive and restrictive programme legislated by the EU to combat salmonella spp. The findings suggest that the consumer surplus may be reduced after the imposition of prohibitive SPS measures because the market structure changes from a duopoly to a monopoly. However, when the perceived harm of the bad product increases and the portion of the concerned population in society regarding the bad product increases, the change in the consumer surplus also increases.
Topic:
World Trade Organization, European Union, Welfare, Trade Policy, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, and South America

4. Production and Trade of ICT from an EU Perspective

Author:
Amat Adarov, Dimitrios Exadaktylos, Mahdi Ghodsi, Robert Stehrer, and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The competitiveness of industries and countries is shaped more and more by technological advancement in the production and use of information and communications technology (ICT). This report considers the supply side of ICT goods and services. It studies the drivers of ICT production location and trade across countries with a focus on the relative position of the EU. The analyses clearly indicate that the EU must step up its efforts to accelerate the shift towards digital production and strengthening the ICT sector that produces the required technologies and services. In addition, from a trade policy perspective, a harmonised set of standards and regulatory framework is to be aimed at to minimise mismatches in technical specifications and requirements. This will lead to the diffusion of positive externalities and should allow for a smooth operation of the global value chains in these products.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Trade, Information Technology, Digitalization, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Economic Sentiment Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries

Author:
Andrzej Cieślik and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of business sentiment in the decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) across European Union (EU) member states. Based on the knowledge-capital model, the study employs the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and panel data to examine empirically the determinants of FDI across EU member states during the period 2003-2017. The empirical evidence suggests that better economic sentiment in an EU Member State induces MNEs to undertake FDI in that country, while worse economic sentiment in an EU member state motivates an MNE in that country to invest abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Europe

6. How Do Technical Barriers to Trade Affect Foreign Direct Investment?

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Trade liberalisation and the EU enlargement in the past two decades allowed European multinational enterprises (MNEs) to benefit from production fragmentation in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). Recent studies show that market regulations and standards that are embedded within Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) might not necessarily hamper trade but improve the quality of products, production procedures, and market efficiencies. However, complying with the regulations embedded in the TBTs imposed by a host country might be costly enough to discourage MNEs from investing there. Furthermore, MNEs from countries that impose more regulations and standards might be more capable of investing abroad. This article analyses how TBTs imposed by both home and host countries affect inward FDI stocks in the CESEE countries during the period 1996-2016. The results suggest that Specific Trade Concerns (STCs) raised on trade-restrictive TBTs imposed by CESEE countries induce ‘tariff jumping’ motives of investment to these countries, while regular TBTs as indications of positive externalities and efficiency gains at home discourage outward FDI. Besides, FDI stocks by non-EU28 countries are found to be stimulated by regular quality TBTs imposed by the host economies.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Regulation, and Tariffs
Political Geography:
Europe