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Begin New Search Author Luca Guerrieri Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Did Easy Money in the Dollar Bloc Fuel the Global Commodity Boom?

Author:
Christopher Erceg, Luca Guerrieri, and Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Among the various explanations for the runup in oil and commodity prices of recent years, one story focuses on the role of monetary policy in the United States and in developing economies. In this view, developing countries that peg their currencies to the dollar were forced to ease their monetary policies after reductions in U.S. interest rates, leading to economic overheating, excess demand for oil and other commodities, and rising commodity prices. We assess that hypothesis using the Federal Reserve staff’s forward-looking, multi- country, dynamic general equilibrium model, SIGMA. We find that even if many developing country currencies were pegged to the dollar, an easing of U.S. monetary policy would lead to only a transitory runup in oil prices. Instead, strong economic growth in many developing economies, as well as shortfalls in oil production, better explain the sustained runup in oil prices observed until earlier this year. Moreover, a closer look at exchange rates and interest rates around the world suggests that the monetary policies of many developing economies, including in East Asia, are less closely influenced by U.S. policies than is frequently assumed.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Commodities, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
United States and North America

2. On the Application of Automatic Differentiation to the Likelihood Function for Dynamic General Equilibrium Models

Author:
Houtan Bastani and Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A key application of automatic differentiation (AD) is to facilitate numerical optimization problems. Such problems are at the core of many estimation techniques, including maximum likelihood. As one of the first applications of AD in the field of economics, we used Tapenade to construct derivatives for the likelihood function of any linear or linearized general equilibrium model solved under the assumption of rational expectations. We view our main contribution as providing an important check on finite-difference (FD) numerical derivatives. We also construct Monte Carlo experiments to compare maximum-likelihood estimates obtained with and without the aid of automatic derivatives. We find that the convergence rate of our optimization algorithm can increase substantially when we use AD derivatives.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

3. International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Christopher Gust, and David López-Salido
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop and estimate an open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in which variable demand elasticities give rise to changes in desired markups in response to changes in competitive pressure from abroad. A parametric restriction on our specification yields the standard NKPC, in which the elasticity is constant, and there is no role for foreign competition to influence domestic inflation. By comparing the unrestricted and restricted specifications, we provide evidence that foreign competition plays an important role in accounting for the behavior of inflation in the traded goods sector. Our estimates suggest that foreign competition has lowered domestic goods inflation about 1 percentage point over the 2000-2006 period. Our results also provide evidence against demand curves with a constant elasticity in the context of models of monopolistic competition.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

4. Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates

Author:
Martin Bodenstein, Christopher J. Erceg, and Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well-approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of “dual mandate” policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Inflation, and Supply
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Oil Shocks and External Adjustment

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Martin Bodenstein, and Christopher J. Erceg
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper investigates how oil price shocks affect the trade balance and terms of trade in a two country DSGE model. We show that the response of the external sector depends critically on the structure of financial market risk-sharing. Under incomplete markets, higher oil prices reduce the relative wealth of an oil-importing country, and induce its nonoil terms of trade to deteriorate, and its nonoil trade balance to improve. The magnitude of the nonoil terms of trade response hinges on structural parameters that affect the divergence in wealth effects across oil importers and exporters, including the elasticity of substitution between oil and other inputs in production, and the discount factor. By contrast, cross-country wealth differences effectively disappear under complete markets, with the implication that oil shocks have essentially no effect on the nonoil terms of trade or the nonoil trade balance.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil

6. Investment-Specific and Multifactor Productivity in Multi-Sector Open Economies: Data and Analysis

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Dale W. Henderson, and Jinill Kim
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the last half of the 1990s, labor productivity growth rose in the U.S. and fell almost everywhere in Europe. We document changes in both capital deepening and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in both the information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT sectors. We view MFP growth in the ICT sector as investment-specific productivity (ISP) growth. We perform simulations suggested by the data using a two-country DGE model with traded and nontraded goods. For ISP, we consider level increases and persistent growth rate increases that are symmetric across countries and allow for costs of adjusting capital-labor ratios that are higher in one country because of structural differences. ISP increases generate investment booms unless adjustment costs are too high. For MFP, we consider persistent growth rate shocks that are asymmetric. When such MFP shocks affect only traded goods (as often assumed), movements in 'international' variables are qualitatively similar to those in the data. However, when they also affect nontraded goods (as suggested by the data), movements in some of the variables are not. To obtain plausible results for the growth rate shocks, it is necessary to assume slow recognition.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

7. Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Christopher Gust, and Christopher Erceg
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we use an open economy DGE model (SIGMA) to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labor income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the U.S. trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point of GDP induces the trade balance to deteriorate by less than 0.2 percentage point of GDP. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

8. Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Christopher Gust, and Christopher J. Erceg
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Gali's innovative approach of imposing long-run restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized. In this paper, we investigate its reliability through Monte Carlo simulations using calibrated business cycle models. We find it encouraging that the impulse responses derived from applying the Gali methodology to the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses. However, we find considerable estimation uncertainty about the quantitative impact of a technology shock on macroeconomic variables, and little precision in estimating the contribution of technology shocks to business cycle fluctuations. More generally, our analysis emphasizes that the conditions under which the methodology performs well appear considerably more restrictive than implied by the key identifying assumption, and depend on model structure, the nature of the underlying shocks, and variable selection in the VAR. This cautions against interpreting responses derived from this approach as model-independent stylized.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

9. The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts

Author:
Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
One of the criticisms routinely advanced against models of the business cycle with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence. This paper finds that staggered contracts µa la Taylor are, in fact, capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by U.S. data. Following Fuhrer and Moore, I capture the moments that the contract specification needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression (VAR) that includes inflation among the endogenous variables. A simple structural model substitutes the inflation equation from the VAR with the contract specification. I estimate the contract parameters in the structural model by maximum likelihood. The correlogram for the endogenous variables from the estimated structural model, including that for inflation, are very close to the correlograms from the VAR (and are contained within their 90% confidence intervals). By the same metric, where Taylor contracts do not fare well is in reproducing the cross-correlations between inflation and output.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States