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1. The technical limits of the EU. Europe’s defense economy as a driving force for strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The Working Paper delves into the European Union’s defense sector’s evolution and current challenges, underscoring the urgency for strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty. It provides a historical backdrop of EU defense initiatives, highlighting the significant influence of recent geopolitical shifts, notably the conflict in Ukraine, on the EU’s defense strategies and industrial landscape. The fragmentation of the European defense market, rising equipment costs, and hefty R&D expenses undermining competitiveness and innovation are identified as key challenges. The author focuses on the war in Ukraine as a catalyst for a consolidated defense equipment market and a surge in military expenditures and defense investments among EU nations. He scrutinizes EU’s measures to foster innovation and integration in the defense market while grappling with national protectionism and divergent member state interests. Conclusively, the report advocates for an autonomous European defense capability as crucial for tackling both longstanding and emerging crises and threats. It underscores the imperative of a harmonized defense approach within the EU, highlighting its significance for the region’s stability and security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2. The OSCE in Zeitenwende: How to keep the Organization on the radar screen?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
After a decade of turmoil in Ukraine, the OSCE faces a critical moment marked by internal deadlocks and external challenges. The absolute priority, on the way forward to the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, is to prevent the Organization from loosing its remaining visibility. A concerted effort to redefine the organization’s purpose is imperative, but this rests in the hands of the participating States, whose active support remains all too rare. Returning to “basics” and focusing on core competencies will be essential. The OSCE can still shape a renewed "Helsinki Plus" for European security, but we need to hurry before our leaders reinvent the wheel.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, OSCE, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Europe

3. From “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can”: will the West abandon Ukraine?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Ukraine starts 2024 on a military stalemate. Sustaining its war effort critically depends on increasing Ukraine allies’ – especially Europe – manufacturing capacity. Without continued Western aid, Ukraine cannot win this war. Both in the U.S. and in Europe, though, the momentum for supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” seems to be waning, especially since the eruption of violence in the Middle East partly took Ukraine off the media screens. Continuing to steadily contain Russia is the only option for now. Ukraine’s future, but also the West’s credibility, are at stake.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

4. Happy Election Year!

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Billions of voters in 77 countries will go to the polls in 2024. Some of these elections will transform key nations’ foreign policies and might durably shape international relations. In many countries, though, elections are just a folding screen for authoritarian regimes. Even in advanced democracies, citizens’ disillusionment seems to give illiberalism a lifeline. The risk is also high that polls across the globe this year will be a ‘prime target’ for disinformation, ‘fake news’, conspiracy theory and cyber attacks.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The UN Summit of the Future (September 2024): Which opportunities for the OSCE?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The UN Summit of the Future, scheduled for 22-23 September 2024, brings together the United Nations' 193 member states under the theme “multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow.” Despite a sour mood in New York City against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Summit can act as a ‘reset’. The OSCE, which is “multilateralism in action”, should use the event and its aftermaths to promote its remarkable contribution as a ‘regional arrangement’ under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter and its thirty-year concrete co-operation with the UN. Both UNSG Guterres’s ‘New Agenda for Peace’ and the draft ‘Pact for the Future’, the two conceptual foundations of the forthcoming Summit, resonate well with the OSCE’s concept of comprehensive security. By taking proactive steps in that framework, the Vienna Organization can enhance its role and effectiveness in the evolving international system. This paper’s ten recommendations include: the adoption of a Ministerial Declaration at the December 2024 Council, taking advantage of Malta’s current 'double-hatted’ status – OSCE Chair and non-permanent member of the UN Security Council -; the continuation of the joint OSCE-UN preparation in view of future opportunities in Ukraine, leveraging the SMM’s experience and lessons learned including the use of advanced monitoring technologies; the establishment of the OSCE as a ‘regional hub’ for climate change, building on Guterres’s call to address the interlinkages between climate, peace and insecurity as a “political priority”; and the increased involvement of the OSCE’s Mediterranean and Asian partners for co-operation which offer gateways to the ‘broader world’.
Topic:
United Nations, Multilateralism, OSCE, and Future
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. How to rebuild Europe’s security architecture?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine is overturning the European security order in place since the end of the Cold War. The Helsinki Final Act (1975), the Charter of Paris for a New Europe (1990), the 1992 Helsinki Summit, as well as the fragile acquis of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), failed to build and maintain a system involving all countries of ‘Greater Europe’, including the Russian Federation. For at least two decades, Russia has expressed discomfort regarding its perceived status in a ‘concert of nations’ dominated, in its perception, by the Atlantic Alliance and the European Union. Still referring to a conception of security based on spheres of influence, it has considered NATO’s eastward expansion as a threat to its national security (Russian National Security Strategy, 2015, 15). “Only during ‘critical junctures’ – relatively rare watershed moments marked by rapid change and upheaval – are security architectures likely to be fundamentally reconfigured” (Hyde-Price, 2014, 105). The war in Ukraine is already listed as such a turning point in history. ln addition to continuing efforts to support Ukraine and stabilize the situation on the battlefield, the time seems ripe for an in-depth assessment of Europe’s security regime. Many might argue that it makes little sense to discuss architecture while the house is burning. I answer that it is our responsibility to stress our preparedness and explore all opportunities. Just increasing military expenditures cannot be the only option. We need a ‘Code of Conduct’ for the 21st Century that would allow no more – real or perceived - ‘security vacuums’. This is in no way intended to accept the Russian narrative. Even during the Cold War, European countries were able to progress in building a common security architecture through dialogue and negotiations. It was less than a month after the brutal military suppression of the Prague Spring by the Warsaw Pact States, in 1968, that the Finnish Government initiated the process that ended up in the Helsinki Final Act.
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Putin’s war in Ukraine: How to get out of it?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II has entered its 300th day without a clear outcome. “Moscow cannot afford to lose in Ukraine, and it will use every means available to avoid defeat” (Mearsheimer, 2022). I believe that Russia’s hasty withdrawal from northeastern Ukraine and its humiliating defeat in Kherson are by no means signaling the last stretch of the war. As I write these lines, missiles and drones target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, destructing half of Ukraine’s power grid and depriving millions of civilians of electricity, water and heat. So where is this war going?
Topic:
War, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept. Analysis and implications for Austria

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Adopted at the Madrid Summit in June 2022, the long-overdue NATO’s new Strategic Concept provides a clear set of guidelines for the Atlantic Alliance in a mid-term perspective. The war in Ukraine has provided the Allies with a powerful catalyst to reconsider NATO’s identity, core missions, as well as their vision of Russia and China. NATO’s new deterrence and defence-centric approach has already entailed a major shift in our security architecture, especially on Europe’s eastern flank. Without undermining its historical neutrality, Austria might reinterpret it in light of NATO’s “reset” and use this opportunity to reinvigorate its partnership with the Alliance.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and Balkans

9. The third EU-NATO joint declaration (10 January 2023): Was it worth the delay?

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Triggered by the war in Ukraine, the long-awaited third joint EU-NATO declaration was signed on 10 January 2023, after months of postponement. Neither a joint strategic concept nor a plan of actions, the document primarily sends a strong political message of transatlantic unity with regards to the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades. Although it recognises the value of a stronger and more capable European defence, it marks the primacy of NATO as European security provider, therefore being seen as a defeat for EU’s strategic autonomy. China’s first ever mention in a joint EU-NATO declaration sparked a nervous reaction in Beijing.
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Ukraine

10. Human Rights in a multi-aligned world: how to counter challenging narratives and restore universalism

Author:
Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This document delves into the foundational importance of the universality of human rights in the contemporary international landscape. Drawing on pivotal quotes by influential figures like Boutros Boutros-Ghali, it emphasizes the inherent nature of universality within human rights, rooted in the dignity of every individual. Highlighting the dual aspect of universality – the territorial applicability of rights and their coverage of all individuals – the paper underscores the interdependent and indivisible nature of human rights. It explores the significance of international human rights covenants and their role in critiquing governments on their adherence to these standards, stressing that upholding human rights is a collective responsibility owed to the global community. However, challenges to the universality of human rights have emerged, especially post-Cold War, with debates centering around cultural relativism and particularities versus universal standards. The 1993 World Conference on Human Rights in Vienna notably reaffirmed the universality principle, although not without contention. Despite the significance of this reaffirmation, conflicts surrounding human rights have multiplied, complicating the path toward achieving true universality. 30 years after the Vienna World Conference, 75 years after the adoption of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights, this study outlines the obstacles to universality, explores the changing dynamics in international relations, particularly focusing on the China-Russia partnership, and suggests pathways to re-establishing the essential universality of human rights. It concludes with recommendations for Austria and Europe to realign with these universal principles in the realm of human rights, emphasizing the ongoing journey and complexities inherent in striving for true universality in human rights worldwide.
Topic:
Human Rights, Multipolarity, and Universalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus