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1. Slowing Down, Heating Up: Economic Deceleration and Social Discontent in Latin America

Author:
Iván Albina, Jessica Bracco, Leonardo Gasparini, and Luis Laguinge
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Income, Discontent, and Deceleration
Political Geography:
Latin America

2. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms

Author:
Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Minimum Wages and Skill Premiums: Evidence for Latin America

Author:
Lucía Ramírez Leira, Octavio Bertín, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on skill premiums in Latin America over the period 1997–2019. The canonical labor market model is extended to include the role of the minimum wage, following the approach proposed by Vogel (2023). Skill premiums are estimated through Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regressions using harmonized household survey microdata from 14 Latin American countries. Results suggest that increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in the skill premium between workers with and without higher education, but do not appear to have a significant effect on the gap between workers with medium and low levels of education. The largest effect of the minimum wage is observed for workers with higher levels of labor market experience. These findings contribute to recent evidence highlighting the role of labor institutions as one of the main drivers of the reduction in inequality in Latin America since the early 2000s.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Skilled Labor, Minimum Wage, and Wages
Political Geography:
Latin America

4. A decomposition method to evaluate the ‘paradox of progress’ with evidence for Argentina

Author:
Javier Alejo, Leonardo Gasparini, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, and Walter Sosa-Escudero
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The ‘paradox of progress’ is an empirical regularity that associates more education with larger income inequality. Two driving and competing factors behind this phenomenon are the convexity of the ‘Mincer equation’ (that links wages and education) and the heterogeneity in its returns, as captured by quantile regressions. We propose a joint least-squares and quantile regression statistical framework to derive a decomposition in order to evaluate the relative contribution of each explanation. The estimators are based on the ‘functional derivative’ approach. We apply the proposed decomposition strategy to the case of Argentina 1992 to 2015.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Inequality, Quantile Regression, and Paradox of Progress
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

5. Poverty and Inequality in Latin America: A Story of Two Decades

Author:
Guillermo Cruces and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Latin American countries have succeeded in reducing poverty and income inequality over the last decade thanks in part to both economic growth and deliberate social policy measures. This study provides an overview of the available evidence of the changes in income distribution that have occurred in Latin America over the past two decades and their causes. While some attribute the improvements in distribution to changes in the international economy and the positive trend in the Latin American countries' terms of trade, others highlight the influence of changes in public policy. Both of these two sets of factors may have played an important role and may have interacted with one another in various ways.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America