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2. Making Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power a Reality
- Author:
- Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in the coming decades. This presents significant challenges for power system planning. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy WSP technologies. Well-designed deployment strategies can take advantage of natural variability in resources across space and time to help minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa
3. Planning for Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power in South Africa: Identifying Cost-Effective Deployment Strategies Using Spatiotemporal Modeling
- Author:
- Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in coming decades. The challenge is to turn laudable aspirations into concrete plans that minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy intermittent WSP technologies. This study develops a 10-year database of expected hourly power generation for onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, and concentrating solar power technologies across South Africa. A simple power system model simulates the economic and environmental performance of different WSP spatial deployment strategies in 2040, while ensuring a minimum level of system reliability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
4. Making Large-Scale Wind and Solar Power a Reality
- Author:
- Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- South Africa and many other countries hope to aggressively expand wind and solar power (WSP) in the coming decades. This presents significant challenges for power system planning. Success hinges largely on the question of how and where to deploy WSP technologies. Well-designed deployment strategies can take advantage of natural variability in resources across space and time to help minimize costs, maximize benefits, and ensure reliability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- South Africa
5. CARMA Revisited: An Updated Database of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Power Plants Worldwide
- Author:
- Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) database provides information about the carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production, corporate ownership, and location of more than 60,000 power plants in over 200 countries. Originally launched in 2007, CARMA is provided freely to the public at www.carma. org and remains the only comprehensive data source of its kind. This paper documents the methodology underpinning CARMA v3.0, released in July, 2012. Comparison of CARMA model output with reported data highlights the general difficulty of precisely predicting annual electricity generation for a given plant and year. Estimating the rate at which a plant emits CO2 (per unit of electricity generated) generally faces fewer obstacles. Ultimately, greater disclosure of plant-specific data is needed to overcome these limitations, particularly in major emitting countries like China, Russia, and Japan. For any given plant in CARMA v3.0, it is estimated that the reported value is within 20 percent of the actual value in 85 percent of cases for CO2 intensity, 75 percent for annual CO2 emissions, and 45 percent for annual electricity generation. CARMA's prediction models are shown to offer significantly better estimates than more naïve approaches to estimating plant-specific performance.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Health, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, and China
6. Concentrating Solar Power in China and India: A Spatial Analysis of Technical Potential and the Cost of Deployment
- Author:
- Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Coal power generation in China and India is expected to double and triple, respectively, over the next 20 years, increasing exposure to fuel price volatility, exacerbating local air pollution, and hastening global climate change. Concentrating solar power (CSP) is a growing source of utility-scale, pollution-free electricity, but its potential in Asia remains largely unexamined. High-resolution spatial data are used to identify areas suitable for CSP and estimate power generation and cost under alternative land-use scenarios. Total technical potential exceeds current coal power output by a factor of 16 to 23 in China and 3 to 4 in India. A CSP expansion program and attendant transmission requirements are simulated with the goal of providing 20 percent of electricity in both countries by midcentury. Under conservative assumptions, the program is estimated to require subsidies of $340 billion in present dollars; coal-associated emissions of 96 GtCO2eq are averted at an average abatement cost of $30 per tCO2eq. Estimated costs are especially sensitive to the assumed rate of technological learning, emphasizing the importance of committed public policy and financing to reduce investment risk, encourage expansion of manufacturing capacity, and achieve long-term cost reductions. The results highlight the need for spatially explicit modeling of renewable power technologies and suggest that existing subsidies might be better used through integrated planning for large-scale solar and wind deployment that exploits spatiotemporal complementarities and shared infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and India
7. Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems
- Author:
- Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Middle East, and Sahel
8. Calculating CARMA: Global Estimation of CO2 Emissions from the Power Sector - Working Paper 145
- Author:
- David Wheeler and Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a detailed description and assessment of CARMA (Carbon Monitoring for Action), a database that reports CO2 emissions from the power sector. We built CARMA to assist the millions of concerned global citizens who can act to reduce carbon emissions once they have timely, accurate information about emissions sources. CARMA also lays the groundwork for the global monitoring system that will be necessary to ensure the credibility of any post-Kyoto carbon emissions limitation agreement. CARMA focuses on the power sector because it is the largest carbon dioxide emitter (26% of the global total), and because power plants are much better-documented than many sources of carbon emissions. The CARMA database and website put anyone with web access a few keystrokes away from detailed knowledge about power plants and the companies that own and operate them. CARMA includes many aggregation tools, so it can be used for local, regional, national and international comparisons. The database also offers complete information about power plants and companies that do not emit carbon because they use non-fossil energy sources (nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, biofuels, geothermal, etc.). In this paper, we provide a description of CARMA's methodology, an assessment of its strengths and weaknesses, and some tests of its accuracy across countries and at different geographical scales. While CARMA performs well in these tests, we recognize that it is far from perfect. We therefore extend the following invitation to any power plant or company that disputes our estimates: Provide us with better data, verified by an appropriate third party, and we will incorporate them in CARMA.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Environment
9. Desert Power: The Economics of Solar Thermal Electricity for Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East
- Author:
- David Wheeler and Kevin Ummel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- A climate crisis is inevitable unless developing countries limit carbon emissions from the power sector in the near future. This will happen only if the costs of lowcarbon power production become competitive with fossil fuel power. We focus on a leading candidate for investment: solar thermal or concentrating solar power (CSP), a commercially available technology that uses direct sunlight and mirrors to boil water and drive conventional steam turbines. Solar thermal power production in North Africa and the Middle East could provide enough power to Europe to meet the needs of 35 million people by 2020.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa