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1. Collateral Effects of the Tariff War on ASEAN Food Security

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Kayven Tan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The United States and China are locked in a cycle of escalating tariffs, with likely knock-on impacts on global food supplies and prices. In response to increases in tariff rates imposed by the US on China’s exports, China hit back with additional tariffs on US$21 billion worth of US agricultural products in March 2025. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs will mean an additional 10 per cent tariff on soybeans, sorghum, beef, pork, aquatic and dairy products, fruits, and vegetables, and an additional 15 per cent tariff on wheat, corn, maize, and chicken from the US. Given the tense words exchanged by leaders and officials on both sides in recent days, neither side appears ready to back down from these trade measures. The food security concern for ASEAN states is whether the trade war will impact the supply and prices of food in a region where 37 per cent, or 251 million people, cannot afford a healthy diet. Many Asian states rely heavily on imports for their food. Wheat is used in household staples such as noodles and bread, while corn and soybeans are used for food and livestock feed.
Topic:
Food Security, Tariffs, Trade Wars, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

2. Food Security Beyond Borders: Securing ASEAN’s Food Supply Chains

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Regional trade and economic integration will be increasingly important in future ASEAN food security discussions post-2025. A shift is needed going beyond the traditional focus on country-level food security towards a truly integrated regional approach based on interlinked food supply chain security.
Topic:
Food Security, Borders, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3. The Dual Mandate of Food Exporting States: India’s Roles in the Global Food Order

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Criticisms of India’s rice export ban must be balanced with the recognition of its responsibility to ensure food affordability for its constituents. Finding a middle ground that addresses India’s predicament could help to prevent the impending international food price crisis from escalating.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Exports, Affordability, Rice, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

4. Volatility in the Rice Sector: Time for ASEAN to Act?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
How Thailand and Vietnam – two major rice exporters after India – will react to the latter’s recent rice export ban will depend very much on expectations of how long the ban will last. Should rice exporters in these countries engage in price speculation, global food security can be put at risk. It is time for ASEAN to explore how price speculation in the rice trade can be prevented.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, ASEAN, Volatility, and Rice
Political Geography:
India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

5. COP26’s Dilemma: Sustainability vs Food Security?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Ironically, amidst the push to “phase down” coal reliance, the world is seeing a “coal crunch” of rising coal/energy prices, with serious implications on fertilisers and food. Countries pursuing sustainability initiatives ignore these trade-offs at their own peril.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Food, Food Security, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. India’s Approach to Food Security Resilience Amid COVID-19: Relevance to ASEAN?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund recently lauded India’s feat of minimising the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on extreme poverty, owing to its food subsidy policies; in contrast, more than 4.7 million people fell into extreme poverty among ASEAN member states (AMS). This NTS Insight highlights relevant aspects of India’s food security approaches which allowed it to provide encompassing food subsidies amidst disruptions. It then assesses their relevance to AMS in facing future disruptions. India’s feat built on its digital identity and digital ration card systems, to minimise leakages in subsidised food. These are supported by India’s food procurement and distribution/stockpile management systems for achieving stockpile targets. Its government guarantees to purchase whatever crops farmers produce, at a pre-announced price. On surface, India’s feat seems to contradict AMS’ purely laissez-faire approach of leaving supply outcomes to the market. In reality, India’s farmers are able to sell their crops in open markets, and government guarantees only supplement the market, to ensure sufficient food stocks and reduce reliance on higher-priced imported crops. As such, it is worth exploring whether more can be done in improving AMS’ resilience amidst growing food supply chain instability, including strengthening systems for digital identity, distribution, stockpile management and procurement.
Topic:
Food Security, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

7. India’s Food Security Resilience: Some Tips for ASEAN?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The IMF recently lauded India’s food subsidies in helping minimise COVID-19’s impacts on food and economic insecurity. What are the lessons for ASEAN member states, where extreme poverty increased by 4.7 million amid the pandemic?
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

8. Global Food Insecurity – The Danger of Misguided Food Production Policies: The Case of Sri Lanka

Author:
Paul Teng and Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated food insecurity worldwide and encouraged various countries to find new ways to manage this threat, including policies to substitute costly imported agricultural inputs like synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Sri Lanka’s recent experience shows that drastic policy changes can have disastrous political and societal consequences.
Topic:
Politics, Food, Food Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

9. International Currency Instability and Food Security: Time to Rebuild “Real Food Economies”?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Debt-distressed countries are handicapped in riding the rising costs of imported food and farming inputs amidst monetary policy shifts internationally. It is timely to rebuild “real food economies” to improve food availability and affordability, hence averting food crises and ensuing political and social instability.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Uncertainty in the Black Sea: Implications for Asia’s Food Security

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
There has been increasing uncertainty, with Russia opting out from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and re-joining five days later. In this brief period, wheat and maize prices jumped for commodity traders. These events portend continuing instability in supply of essential food items amid the Ukraine war and putting Asia’s food security at risk.
Topic:
Security, Food, Food Security, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Asia