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1. The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone: Backgrounds, Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts

Author:
John Whalley
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) founded in September 2013, is a trial for China's new round of “reform and opening up” (China.org.cn 2008). The SPFTZ has promised liberalization on capital account and trade facilitation as its main objectives. This paper discusses reasons why China needs such a pilot zone after three decades of economic development, examines the differences between the SPFTZ and other free trade zones (FTZs) and highlights the developments of the SPFTZ since its inception. The SPFTZ's initial impressions are assessed, especially its impact on the opening of China's capital account and financial liberalization. The hope is that the success of the SPFTZ, and more pilot policies replicated in China, will give rise to a more balanced Chinese economy in the following decade.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
China

2. China and Global Mega Trade Deals

Author:
John Whalley, Chunding Li, and Jing Wang
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The term "mega deal" has been widely used in relation to two large prospective trade deals between the United States and Europe – the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) — and in Asia and the Pacific — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This paper starts by exploring a possible description of trade mega deals by making an inventory of mega deals in place, under discussion or negotiation, and deals yet to be considered under different criteria. This paper also calculates the trade volume coverage and trade barrier coverage for potential mega deals, and the results show the potential impact of mega deals on trade and growth performance is large.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

3. Approaches to Fostering Productivity Growth in Brazil, China and India

Author:
John Whalley, Manmohan Agarwal, and Yao Li
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Productivity growth is a significant contributor to GDP growth, particularly to increases in per capita income. However, there is considerable ambiguity regarding how to measure the concept of technical progress, and consequently on policies that would foster productivity growth. Brazil, China and India, three important emerging economies, are seeking to foster productivity growth through encouraging innovation and technology transfers from the more developed economies. But given the ambiguities about how to encourage innovation and technology transfers, governments in these countries adopted a plethora of policies in the hope that the combination will be effective. This ambiguity can also be seen in the much slower growth of productivity in Brazil than China, even though Brazil has scored higher on the World Bank's Knowledge Assessment Methodology.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, India, and Brazil

4. Bridging the North-South Divide on Climate Post Copenhagen

Author:
John Whalley and Sean Walsh
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The United Nations climate change negotiations currently underway and now seemingly likely to conclude only six to 12 months after the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) hosted meeting at Copenhagen in December 2009, are beset by a series of obstacles, the most fundamental of which reflect the North-South divide, largely between the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD economies. In this brief we argue that movement across this divide is the single most important element in a successful conclusion to the negotiation. Current obstacles reflect asymmetries between developing and developed countries both in terms of growth in carbon emissions — and hence the costs of reducing emissions proportionately relative to some base date level, but also in terms of historical emissions as a source of damage. These are compounded by the imprecision of the negotiating mandate — a lack of a clear definition of the basic principles involved, particularly in the case of the original UNFCCC principle of common yet differentiated responsibilities, which accepts but does not clearly delineate differentiated responsibilities for developing and developed countries on climate change. Significant movement in the negotiating position of either side (or both) is likely a necessity for a climate deal to be reached even in post-Copenhagen negotiations. However, the recent unilateral commitment by China to reduce emissions by 40-45 percent per unit of GDP from a 2005 base year by 2020 is a positive first step.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Third World
Political Geography:
China and United Nations

5. Regional Monetary Arrangements in ASEAN+3 as Insurance through Reserve Accumulation and Swaps

Author:
O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

6. Technology Upgrading and China's Growth Strategy to 2020

Author:
John Whalley and Weimin Zhou
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7. Recent Regional Agreements: Why so many, so fast, so different and where are they headed?

Author:
John Whalley
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recent years have witnessed a sharp increase in the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) both concluded and under negotiation. This paper attempts to document and discuss this growth focusing on the United States (US), the European Union (EU), China, India and the agreements of other countries. The form, coverage, and content of these agreements vary considerably from case to case. This paper poses the following questions: why so many, why the variation, and why the recent increase in RTAs? Implications for the trading system are discussed in a final section.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

8. BRICSAM and the Non-WTO

Author:
Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
We discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements involving the large population, rapidly growing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. Along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements they are part of what we term the non-WTO. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co-exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. Whether these represent a partial replacement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) process for newly negotiated reciprocity based on global trade liberalization or largely represent diplomatic protocol alongside significant WTO disciplines is the subject of this paper.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico