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Begin New Search Topic Political Violence Author Johannes Vüllers

1. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case

Author:
Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

2. Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Tim Wegenast, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Theoretically, the “mobilization hypothesis” establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that religious structures such as overlapping ethnic and religious identities are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes likelier. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African armed conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion–conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if yes, in which way? To answer these questions, this paper draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g. demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g. inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Based on logit regressions, results suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. The findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis: Overlaps of religious and ethnic identities and religious dominance are conflict-prone; religious polarization is conflict-prone only if combined with religious discrimination and religious tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion

3. Fighting for a Kingdom of God? The Role of Religion in the Ivorian Crisis

Author:
Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of religion with regard to the violence experienced during the past 20 years in Côte d'Ivoire. It seeks to explain the differences in the level of violence over time by focusing on religion as an identity marker and as a social force that is mobilizable by religious and political actors. Religious identities were part of the growing in-/ out-group mechanism utilized in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1990s, while the political elites tried to politicize religion. In reaction to the violence and politicization, the religious elites founded an interreligious organization in the 1990s, and were successful in preventing a religious war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Cutting Bread or Cutting Throats? – Findings from a New Database on Religion, Violence and Peace in Sub – Saharan Africa, 1990 to 2008

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite the religious diversity in sub–Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, social science research has inadequately addressed the question of how and to what extent religion matters for conflict in Africa. This paper presents an innovative data inventory on religion and violent conflict in all sub–Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008 that seeks to contribute to filling the gap. The data underscore that religion has to be accounted for in conflict in Africa. Moreover, results show the multidimensionality (e.g. armed conflicts with religious incompatibilities, several forms of non‐state religious violence) and ambivalence (inter‐religious networks, religious peace initiatives) of religion vis–à–vis violence. In 22 of the 48 sub–Saharan countries, religion plays a substantial role in violence, and six countries in particular—Chad, Congo‐Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda— are heavily affected by different religious aspects of violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa