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1. The Egyptian Military and the Fate of the Regime

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) is perhaps the key actor in the current crisis. Although it has largely remained aloof from the struggle in the streets and has yet to show its hand regarding the fate of the regime, many are counting on it to act in the nation's interest, force President Hosni Mubarak from power, and facilitate a smooth transition to a successor government. This places a great deal of responsibility on the EAF and makes understanding its role in the process essential. Observers inside and outside Egypt should not take for granted that the military will either do "the right thing" or act monolithically. It is an actor with many faces and capacities, and one whose internal motivations and processes can be seen only dimly at the moment.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Arabia and Egypt

2. Egypt's Security Forces: A Key Factor in the Crisis

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The current wave of protests in Egypt has pitted thousands of demonstrators against the police and Central Security Forces (CSF). The performance of these forces is key to the outcome of the crisis. If they can contain the demonstrations without excessive violence, the protests will likely burn themselves out over time. But if the demonstrations continue or escalate into greater violence, the police and CSF could break down, either dissolving entirely or engaging in undisciplined violence that further exacerbates the situation. Such a scenario, or even the likelihood of it, would probably spur the government to deploy army personnel to support the security forces, deter further demonstrations, and, if necessary, put down the protests through force. That would be a true crisis for the government, one with an uncertain outcome.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Arabia and Egypt

3. Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

4. West Bank Hardball: Fatah's Offensive Against Hamas

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After several political and military setbacks, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have waged an effective campaign against Hamas's political, economic, and military position in the West Bank. And as long as Israeli security forces remain in the West Bank, a Hamas seizure of power there is effectively impossible. Although this is an important positive development, Hamas is an adaptive opponent that should not be counted out in the long-term power struggle in the Palestinian territories.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

5. Lessons and Consequences of the Israel-Hizballah War: An Early Assessment

Author:
David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 25, 2006, Jeffrey White, David Makovsky, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White is the Berrie Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute and the coauthor, with Michael Eisenstadt, of the Institute Policy Focus Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency. David Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. He, like Jeffrey White, recently returned from a trip to Israel. Dennis Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

6. The Latest Challenge from al-Sadr (Part II): Implications and Outlook

Author:
Jeffrey White and Anna Solomon-Schwartz
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Muqtada al-Sadr has placed the Interim Iraqi Government in a difficult position, forcing it to demonstrate both strength and skill. His challenge exploits the political and military seams between the interim government and the coalition, and within the Iraqi political system. He has also exploited popular hostility toward the coalition and, in some quarters, the suspect legitimacy of the interim government.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

7. The Latest Challenge from al-Sadr (Part I): Background and Context

Author:
Jeffrey White and Anna Solomon-Schwartz
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The fractious and dangerous Iraqi Shi'i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is once again attempting to foment a rebellion. In scenes virtually identical to those of his April-May 2004 uprising, his militia is in the streets, Shi'is are demonstrating en masse, and he is alternately talking peace and vowing to fight to the death. Iraq has changed since the April rebellion, however, with al-Sadr now pitted against the coalition as well as the new Interim Iraqi Government and its expanding security forces.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

8. Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part II): An Adaptive Enemy

Author:
Jeffrey White and Ryan Phillips
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During late May and early June 2004, Muqtada al-Sadr's revolt was challenged by continuing coalition military action and mounting Shi'i political and religious pressure. His militia was increasingly on the defensive, clinging tightly to defensive positions near key holy sites and disappearing from the streets whenever coalition military operations became too overwhelming. In response, Sadr initiated a combination of political and militant actions designed to deflect political pressure, expand his influence, and impede coalition military progress against his forces.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

9. Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part I): The U.S. Military Response

Author:
Jeffrey White and Ryan Phillips
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Muqtada al-Sadr represents a serious long-term political and military challenge to the coalition and the new Iraqi government. Open warfare between Sadr and the coalition first emerged on April 4, 2004, with "uprisings" by his militia, the so-called Mahdi Army, in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. Although Sadr has not achieved his objective of a broad-based Shi'i rebellion, coalition forces have not been able to bring him to justice or dissolve his militia. Both sides are now playing a high-stakes game. The coalition is betting that it can eliminate or reduce Sadr as a political force without causing a serious breach with the larger Shi'i community. Sadr is gambling that he can persist, even prosper, in the face of the coalition. Indeed, he has long-term political goals and is positioning himself for the upcoming elections. The prospects that the coalition can bring him under control at acceptable cost and risk remain uncertain.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

10. Crisis In Iraq: Assessments And Implications (Part I)

Author:
Jeffrey White and Michael Kights
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 16, 2004, Jeffrey White, Michael Knights, and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White, an associate of the Institute, previously headed the Defense Intelligence Agency's Regional Military Assessments Group and that agency's Office for Middle East-Africa Regional Military Assessments. Michael Knights, the Institute's Mendelow defense fellow, wrote his doctoral dissertation at King's College, London, on U.S. airstrikes in Iraq during and since the 1991 Gulf War. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks. A summary of Michael Eisenstadt's remarks is presented in PolicyWatch No. 862.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia