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1. Tracking the Trend of Quinoa Price in Bolivia: Structural Breaks and Persistence of Shocks

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann, Ignacio Garrón Vedia, and María Cecilia Lenis Abastoflor
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Quinoa has evolved considerably in the past decades, becoming consolidated as a fundamental pillar for Andean farming communities and emerging as a prominent actor in the global superfood market. Despite this, prices of this grain have been characterized by complex dynamics, with substantial fluctuations that directly affect smallholder income. The goal of this research is to analyze Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, identifying both the main events and factors that caused structural breaks in the price trend and the persistence of shocks in time. The approach employed combines, on the one hand, an analysis of the structural breaks by means of the Bai and Perron contrast, together with estimates of long memory using the 2ELW estimator. Also evaluated was the influence of exogenous variables that affect prices, for which the world commodity activity index (Index of Global Real Economic Activity), the Oceanic Niño Index and world quinoa production were considered. The findings show multiple structural breaks in the quinoa price series, related to certain key events. Among the latter are for example changes in research and development, the production and sales boom, and the boost prompted by State initiatives and international cooperation. These breaks are also related to different degrees of persistence in the shocks under the different regimes identified. Although the exogenous variables show no significant short-term effects, it is understood that they may have a relevant influence in different periods. The present study shows the complexity of Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, characterized by several structural breaks. To take proper advantage of this market, producers and policy makers must implement flexible strategies, as well as continuous monitoring of the sector’s progress, considering the key factors that induced price trend changes over the years.
Topic:
Markets, Memory, Price, Quinoa, and Structural Breaks
Political Geography:
South America, Bolivia, and Andes

2. Evolution of Multidimensional Energy Poverty Risk in Bolivia from 2005 to 2019

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann and Sergio Mansilla
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
“Energy poverty” is a multidimensional concept that reflects the need to achieve a variety of wellbeing outcomes, which has been scarcely studied and used in public policy agendas. Considering that the literature on energy poverty is still incipient in Bolivia, this paper’s objective is to generate evidence about energy poverty evolution in the country, approximating measures of incidence (risk) and severity for the period 2005-2019. The methodological approach follows the one proposed by Alkire & Foster (2011), with five equally weighted dimensions (energy expenditure, lighting, cooking fuel and indoor pollution, food equipment, and education and communication) and using different cut-off options, at the urban and rural levels. Also, Multidimensional Energy Poverty results are compared with a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based weight structure as a robustness exercise. Results show that the risk of being energy poor in Bolivia has decreased, but not structurally. Also, intensity has decreased in both urban and rural areas, but rural energy poor households continue to show at least 50% of deprivation in all dimensions evaluated.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Rural, and Energy
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

3. Experimental Field Evidence of Common Pool Resources: The Water Judge in Bolivia

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Common pool resources (CPRs) are usually exploited one generation after another – often overexploited – meaning there is an intergenerational link between the consumers – e.g., water for farming activities. This key dimension is often not considered in theoretical or field experiments, due to the difficultly in approaching it. We want to overcome this barrier introducing the hypothesis of ‘’intergenerational altruism” for CPRs. The implication is that altruism reduce the exploitation of the natural resources, since the agents recognize that the exploitation not only creates negative externalities for their own generation, but also for all future generations. An alternative hypothesis is the ‘’intergenerational equity’’ where the agents restrain their consumption to equalize their income over time. To prove these hypotheses, we conducted a field experiment in four farming communities located in the Bolivian Department of Chuquisaca during the third quarter of 2019. We consider common water for farming activities as a CPRs, since these communities use this resource for several decades, the intergenerational link is evident. Our intergenerational field experiment includes four treatments based on the replacement rate of the resources – i.e., FAST, SLOW, RESTART or normal replacement, under one-shot non-cooperative game without feedback. We also introduce two variations, the possibility to accumulate water in a dam, which modify the availability of CPRs. Second, the possibility to manage the common farming water through the traditional social arrangement of the Water Judge, which is a representative member of the community delegated to solve problems related with water management, named SAT treatment. The results showed that our hypothesis was not probed since the intergenerational link does not mitigate the overexploitation of CPRs. Nevertheless, we also found that the “Water Judge” could be a cost-effective treatment in small farming communities.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Bolivia

4. Vehicle fleets path and non-linear ownership elasticity for Bolivia, 2000 - 2035

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann and Alejandra Terán Orsini
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper seeks to analyze the evolution of the Bolivian vehicle stock in the mid-term and its policy implications. First, we analyze the relationship between income and vehicle ownership in the country during the period 1970 – 2017 through robust econometric techniques. Based on these results, we use an energy-mix accounting model programmed in General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) to analyze how the vehicle fleet and the derived demand of gasoline, natural gas and diesel oil evolved over time. Finally, we observe the trajectory of CO2eq in the transport sector for different types of vehicle categories. Our results prove that the relationship between vehicle ownership and per capita income is highly non-linear and we observe an excessive increase in the vehicle fleet during the last decade. Both of these results will speed up the saturation level of the vehicle fleet in Bolivia. With more equivalented vehicles (EV) on the roads, we expect that the consumption of derivatives will increase over the next years. Hence, we assume imbalances in diesel oil and gasoline production and a lower decarbonization path. Without an energy policy in the transport sector or any energy efficiency measures, the consumption of derivatives would grow 6.9 times and the total emissions of CO2eq would increase 7.93 times in the 2000-2035 period.
Topic:
Environment, Economic Policy, Domestic Policy, Carbon Emissions, and Cars
Political Geography:
Bolivia