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1. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

2. Poverty Reduction in China: Is High Growth Enough?

Author:
Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Should growth or inequality be prioritized in the design and execution of development policies ? An oft cited paper by Dollar and Kraay of the World Bank advocates growth as the primary objective of development. Opponents argue that growth may not be pro-poor, thus growth alone is insufficient for poverty reduction—the ultimate goal of development. They instead emphasize redistribution as an important policy instrument. From a practical point of view, most policies involve trade-offs between efficiency (i.e., growth) and equity, at least in the short-run. With this in mind, development strategists and policymakers face the challenge or dilemma: what should be prioritized in the design and execution of development policies?
Political Geography:
China

3. WIDER Special Issue: Inequality and Poverty in China

Author:
Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A large group of smallish countries totalling about a billion people have sheered off from the rest of mankind. As the world becomes more socially integrated this giant pool of poverty will be both unacceptable and explosive. It is the world's biggest economic problem and we need to do something about it. To know what to do we need to start with a diagnosis. While the common fate of the bottom billion has been stagnation and poverty there has been no single cause. In my recently published book The Bottom Billion I propose four distinct traps that between them account for the problem, each requiring a distinct remedy. I also argue that globalization, though it has been benign for the majority of the developing world, is not working for the bottom billion and is not likely to do so. On the contrary, it is liable to make them increasingly marginalized.
Political Geography:
China and Europe

4. Regional Income Inequality in Rural China, 1985-2002: Trends, Causes and Policy Implications

Author:
Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper depicts the trend of regional inequality in rural China for the period 1985- 2002. The total inequality is decomposed into the so-called within- and between components when China is divided into three regional belts (east, central and west). A regression-based accounting framework is then used to explore root sources of the rising inequality. Policy implications are discussed.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5. Poverty, Pro-Poor Growth and Mobility: A Decomposition Framework with Application to China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a framework for incorporating longitudinal distributional changes into poverty decomposition. It is shown that changes in the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon index over time can be decomposed into two components—one component reflects the progressivity of income growth among the original poor, the other measures the extent of downward mobility experienced by the incumbent poor. The decomposition is applied to appraising poverty trends in China between 1988 and 1996. The results indicate that the proposed decomposition can complement the widely-used growthdistribution decomposition in providing insights into poverty dynamics.
Topic:
Development and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6. China's Regional Inequality in Innovation Capability, 1995-2004

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Peilei Fan
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Relying on a recently developed decomposition framework, this paper explores spatial distribution of innovation capability in China. It is found that at the regional level, China's inequality in innovation capability increased from 1995 to 2004. At the provincial level, the inequality decreased from1995 to 2000, but increased from 2000 to 2004. Location, industrialization and urbanization, human capital, and openness (foreign direct investment) are significant contributors to the inequality in innovation capability. Unbalanced development in high-tech parks exerts a growing explanatory power in driving innovation disparity, which implies that institutional factor plays a direct role.
Topic:
Civil Society and Demographics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7. Poverty Reduction in China: Trends and Causes

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Applying the Shapley decomposition to unit-record household survey data, this paper investigates the trends and causes of poverty in China in the 1990s. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes; income growth and shifts in relative income distribution. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measures are computed and decomposed, with different datasets and alternative assumptions about poverty lines and equivalence. Among the robust results are: (i) both income growth and favourable distributional changes can explain China's remarkable achievement in combating poverty in rural areas in the first half of the 1990s; (2) in the second half of the 1990s, both rural and urban China suffered from rapidly rising inequality and stagnant income growth, leading to a slow-down in poverty reduction, even reversal of poverty trend.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8. The Public Distribution Systems of Foodgrains and Implications for Food Security: A Comparison of the Experiences of India and China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Zhang-Yue Zhou
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A comparative study of the public distribution systems of foodgrains in India and China is expected to reveal lessons and experiences that are valuable to policymakers. This is particularly important for developing countries in their endeavour to ensure food security. This paper undertakes such an exercise. The main features and developments of the two public distribution systems are first highlighted. This is followed by a comparative analysis of their similarities and differences. The role of public foodgrain distribution systems in ensuring food security is then evaluated. Finally, policy implications are drawn.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Poverty
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

9. The Impacts of Growth and Inequality on Rural Poverty in China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unit-record household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes— income growth and shifts in income distribution. Different datasets, poverty lines, poverty measures, and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Potential biases arising from ignoring differential regional prices and inflation are also investigated. Notwithstanding some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that rural poverty increased in the second half of the 1990s and adverse distributional changes are the main cause.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

10. The Inequality-Growth Nexus in the Short and Long Runs: Empirical Evidence from China

Author:
Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper argues that the conventional approach of data averaging is problematic for exploring the growth—inequality nexus. It introduces the polynomial inverse lag (PIL) framework so that the impacts of inequality on investment, education, and ultimately on growth can be measured at precisely defined time lags. Combining PIL with simultaneous systems of equations, we analyze the growth—inequality relationship in postreform China, finding that this relationship is nonlinear and is negative irrespective of time horizons.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Education
Political Geography:
China and Asia