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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Author Georg Strüver

1. Ex oleo bellare? The Impact of Oil on the Outbreak of Militarized Interstate Disputes

Author:
Tim Wegenast and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
According to conventional wisdom, strategic natural resources like oil are harmful to international peace. Nonetheless, there is little empirical quantitative work on the link between resource abundance and interstate conflicts. Analyzing the impact of oil on militarized interstate disputes on a monadic level of analysis, this paper shows that oil in fact influences the conflict potential between countries. Results of logistic regressions suggest that a high absolute oil production is associated with an increased risk of dispute initiation. Per capita oil production, in contrast, does not seem to influence a country's propensity to start militarized conflicts. We also find that while very small oil-rich countries are more frequently the object of military actions, large oil producers seem to be generally spared from foreign attacks. We conclude that specific causal mechanisms such as an increased military capacity or the indulgence of the international community (rather than domestic political conditions inherent to the rentier state) might be particularly useful to explain our findings.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Oil, War, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia and Georgia

2. Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Tim Wegenast, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Theoretically, the “mobilization hypothesis” establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that religious structures such as overlapping ethnic and religious identities are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes likelier. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African armed conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion–conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if yes, in which way? To answer these questions, this paper draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g. demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g. inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Based on logit regressions, results suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. The findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis: Overlaps of religious and ethnic identities and religious dominance are conflict-prone; religious polarization is conflict-prone only if combined with religious discrimination and religious tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion

3. Cutting Bread or Cutting Throats? – Findings from a New Database on Religion, Violence and Peace in Sub – Saharan Africa, 1990 to 2008

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite the religious diversity in sub–Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, social science research has inadequately addressed the question of how and to what extent religion matters for conflict in Africa. This paper presents an innovative data inventory on religion and violent conflict in all sub–Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008 that seeks to contribute to filling the gap. The data underscore that religion has to be accounted for in conflict in Africa. Moreover, results show the multidimensionality (e.g. armed conflicts with religious incompatibilities, several forms of non‐state religious violence) and ambivalence (inter‐religious networks, religious peace initiatives) of religion vis–à–vis violence. In 22 of the 48 sub–Saharan countries, religion plays a substantial role in violence, and six countries in particular—Chad, Congo‐Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda— are heavily affected by different religious aspects of violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Too Many Resources or Too Few? What Drives International Conflicts?

Author:
Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
International conflicts over natural resources are frequently cited as the most prominent threat to global peace in the decades ahead. However, this subject has not yet been adequately tackled in the academic literature. This paper contributes to filling the gap by, first, proposing a four-class typology of resource conflicts and by, second, testing these conflict types against data on fossil fuels and interstate conflicts derived from two major conflict datasets: the Militarized Interstate Dispute Dataset (1960–2001) and the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflicts Dataset (1960–2008). The findings, although preliminary, suggest that resource scarcity may play a less prominent role in the aggression of belligerent countries than is often assumed and that the existence of large oil deposits and high resource-rent incomes are better predictors of conflict involvement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Oil, Armed Struggle, and Natural Resources