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1. The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The 2015/16 El Niño drought proved to be the worst drought Swaziland has experienced since 1992. In total nominal monetary terms, the drought cost Swaziland minimally E3.843 billion, representing a 7.01% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016 or 18.58% of government expenditure in 2016. Despite the significant drought losses, the country has on paper a solid Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy (2010). However, even with extensive experience from past droughts in 2009/10, 2007, 2001, and 1992, the country is still struggling to become drought proof. The reason Swaziland is so affected by drought is that the country’s economic backbone rests on agriculture. The inherent vulnerability to drought is that the food production system in the country is still highly dependent on direct rainfall. Due to chronic drought-like conditions in the Shiselweni and Lubombo regions, households in these regions are now discouraged from participating in agriculture. To illustrate, an assessment of agricultural assets in households reveals that household participation in agriculture is less than 30%, with a measly national average of 25.3%. As a result, the country is now too dependent on the international, basically South African, market for its basic food needs. The implication is that as droughts become more frequent, their impact on the country will be detrimental to the economy, particularly on rural livelihoods.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Disasters, Socioeconomics, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

2. Predictors of food insecurity in Swaziland: Lessons from the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The National Food Security Policy (NFSP) 2005 stresses recurrent droughts and the high incidence of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland as the major contributing factors towards adverse food insecurity in the country. Consistently, when droughts hit the country, food production plummets and pushes a significant portion of the population into food insecurity. An investigation of the predictors of food insecurity among households during the 2015/16 drought provides information on the households that are prone to drought induced food insecurity, so as to inform food security risk mapping in the country. The assessment found that the most significant factors associated with increased food insecurity odds at the household level include households in the Lubombo region which is the poorest among the four regions. Households that do not have toilet facilities in their homesteads, those that depend on rainwater and boreholes as their main source of drinking water, as well as households that use lanterns or oil lamps as their main source of lighting are more likely to be food insecure. Another important factor that can be a good predictor of increased food insecurity during a drought is the ownership and use of tractors and hoes within households that depend on crop production as one of the main sources of food.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3. The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
This report provides detailed findings of an investigation into the socioeconomic impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño drought in Swaziland. It records the direct and indirect effects of the drought on the economy of Swaziland and documents how it has affected households, businesses, and the environment. The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The study documents the effects of the 2015/16 drought on the economy of Swaziland, extrapolates how it may have affected the implementation of the country’s developmental mandate, and deduces the suitability of the country’s disaster risk management policy to respond to natural disasters like droughts. The study concludes by quantifying the economic costs and overall effects, in monetary terms, of the drought to Swaziland.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Socioeconomics, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland