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1. FCPR–Forest Conservation Performance Rating for the Pan-Tropics

Author:
David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This note introduces and illustrates fCPR (Forest Conservation Performance Rating), a system of color-coded ratings for tropical forest conservation performance that can be implemented for local areas, countries, regions, and the entire pan-tropics. The ratings reward tropical forest conservation in three dimensions: (1) exceeding expectations, given an area's forest clearing history and development status; (2) meeting or exceeding global REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. Green ratings are assigned to areas that meet condition (2); yellow to areas that meet (1) only; and red to countries that fail to meet either condition. We have developed fCPR at the Center for Global Development (CGD), using monthly forest clearing indicators from CGD's FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action). This first release rates the quarterly conservation performance of 27 countries currently tracked by FORMA, as well as 242 of their states and provinces that contain tropical forests. The 27 countries accounted for 94 percent of tropical forest clearing during the period 2000–2005. Future releases will include additional countries as FORMA begins tracking them.
Topic:
Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Economics, Environment, and Natural Resources

2. Fair Shares: Crediting Poor Countries for Carbon Mitigation

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper computes national carbon mitigation costs using two simple principles: (1) Incremental costs for low-carbon energy investments are calculated using the cost of coal-fired power as the benchmark. (2) All low-carbon energy sources are counted, because reducing carbon emissions cannot be separated from other concerns: reducing local air pollution from fossil-fuel combustion; diversifying energy sources to reduce political and economic risks; and building competitive advantage in emerging clean-energy markets. The paper estimates energy growth and incremental costs for biomass, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear in 174 countries from 1990 to 2008. Then it compares national mitigation burdens using per-capita mitigation expenditures as shares of per-capita incomes. The results undermine the conventional view of North-South conflict that has dominated global climate negotiations, because they show that developing countries, whether by intention or not, have been critical participants in carbon mitigation all along. Furthermore, they suggest that developing countries have borne their fair share of global mitigation expenditures. But they also show that expenditures for both developed and developing countries have been so modest that low-carbon energy growth could accelerate greatly without undue strain.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, and Energy Policy

3. Unity in Diversity: A Global Consensus on Choosing the IMF's Managing Director: Evidence from CGD's Online Survey

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
On May 19, 2011, the Center for Global Development launched an online survey of the global development community on three issues: the selection process for the IMF's managing director, criteria for rating the candidates, and actual ratings for 15 candidates who had been named by the international media. Between May 19 and June 23, CGD received 790 responses from people whose characteristics reflect the diversity of the international finance and development community. Survey participants represent 81 nations, all world regions, high-, middle-, and low-income countries, and all adult age groups. In this working paper, David Wheeler analyzes the survey results, incorporating the diversity of the respondents by dividing participants into four mutually exclusive assessment groups: Europeans, who have a particular interest in this context; non-European nationals of other high-income countries; and nationals of middle- and low-income countries. Although the participants are diverse, their responses indicate striking unity on all three survey issues. First, both European and non-European participants reject Europe's traditional selection prerogative by large margins, with equally strong support for an open, transparent, competitive selection process. Second, participants exhibit uniformity in the relative importance they ascribe to CGD's six criteria for selecting candidates. Third, the participants exhibit striking consistency in rating the fifteen candidates.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

4. Forest Clearing in the Pantropics: December 2005–August 2011

Author:
David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This report summarizes recent trends in large-scale tropical forest clearing identified by FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action). Our analysis includes 27 countries that accounted for 94 percent of clearing during the period 2000–2005. We highlight countries with relatively large changes since 2005, both declines and increases. FORMA produces indicators that track monthly changes in the number of 1-sq.-km. tropical forest parcels that have experienced clearing with high probability. This report and the accompanying spreadsheet databases provide monthly estimates for 27 countries, 280 primary administrative units, and 2,907 secondary administrative units. Countries' divergent experiences since 2005 have significantly altered their shares of global clearing in some cases. Brazil's global share fell by 11.2 percentage points from December 2005 to August 2011, while the combined share of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Myanmar increased by 10.8. The diverse patterns revealed by FORMA's first global survey caution against facile generalizations about forest clearing in the pantropics. During the past five years, the relative scale and pace of clearing have changed across regions, within regions, and within countries. Although the overall trend seems hopeful, it remains to be seen whether the decline in forest clearing will persist as the global economy recovers.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar

5. From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing

Author:
David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this paper, we develop and illustrate a prototype incentive system for promoting rapid reduction of forest clearing in tropical countries. Our proposed Tropical Forest Protection Fund (TFPF) is a cash-on-delivery system that rewards independently monitored performance without formal contracts. The system responds to forest tenure problems in many countries by dividing incentive payments between national governments, which command the greatest number of instruments that affect forest clearing, and indigenous communities, which often have tenure rights in forested lands. The TFPF incorporates both monetary and reputational incentives, which are calculated quarterly. The monetary incentives are unconditional cash transfers based on measured performance, while the reputational incentives are publicly disclosed, color-coded performance ratings for each country. The incentives include rewards for: (1) exceeding long-run expectations, given a country's forest clearing history and development status; (2) meeting or exceeding global REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. Drawing on monthly forest clearing indicators from the new FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action) database, we illustrate a prototype TFPF for eight East Asian countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. A system with identical design principles could be implemented by single or multiple donors for individual or multiple forest proprietors within one or more countries, as well as national or local governments in individual countries, tropical regions, or the global pan-tropics. Our results demonstrate the importance of financial flexibility in the design of the proposed TFPF. Its incentives are calculated to induce a massive, rapid reduction of tropical forest clearing. If that occurs, a TFPF for East Asia will need standby authority for disbursements that may total $10–14 billion annually for the next two decades. This financial burden will not persist, however, because the TFPF is designed to self-liquidate once all recipient countries have achieved clearly specified benchmarks. We estimate that the TFPF can be closed by 2070, with its major financial responsibility discharged by 2040.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, East Asia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

6. Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Indonesia

Author:
David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, Susmita Dasgupta, Dan Hammer, and Brian Blankespoor
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demand for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, and local rainfall and terrain slope. Our econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing. We find significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall, and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, and the absence of impact for protected-area status is particularly notable. Our results strongly support the model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia's financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful forces.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Indonesia

7. Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries

Author:
David Wheeler, Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, and Siobhan Murray
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As the climate changes during the 21st century, larger cyclonic storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. As conditions worsen, variations in coastal morphology will magnify the effects in some areas, while largely insulating others. In this paper, we explore the implications for 84 developing countries and 577 of their cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Combining the most recent scientific and demographic information, we estimate the future impact of climate change on storm surges that will strike coastal populations, economies and ecosystems. We focus on the distribution of heightened impacts, because we believe that greater knowledge of their probable variation will be useful for local and national planners, as well as international donors. Our results suggest gross inequality in the heightened impact of future disasters, with the most severe effects limited to a small number of countries and a small cluster of large cities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, and Economics

8. It's One World Out There: The Global Consensus on Selecting the World Bank's Next President

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In May 2007 CGD launched an online survey of the global development community on three issues: the selection process for the next World Bank president; criteria for rating the candidates; and actual ratings for nine candidates who had been named by the international media. Between May 22 and May 31, CGD received nearly 700 responses from people whose characteristic s reflect the diversity of the international development community. Survey participants represent 71 nations; all world regions; high-, middle- and low-income countries; a variety of professional affiliations; and all adult age groups. About 30% of respondents are women.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States