Author: David Makovsky / Political Geography: Arabia

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The truce reached today should be interpreted very cautiously, given both today's terror bombing in Jerusalem, which killed two Israeli civilians, and the two previous failed ceasefires recently brokered by the United States in Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh, respectively. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat was due to announce the truce but instead opted to have other PA officials announce it on Palestinian television and radio. Moreover, Hamas quickly declared that it is not bound by the terms of the ceasefire. Prime Minister Ehud Barak's office nevertheless announced that the ceasefire is in effect.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Paris, Arabia, and Jerusalem

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Domestic political considerations will be an important factor in Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's moves at Camp David. Although he would like to have one for a myriad of reasons, politically Barak does not need a deal. To the contrary, failure to reach an agreement could even bring his "big tent" coalition back from dead. Barak had hoped to have a broad government that included the religious parties behind him, having learned from the Yitzhak Rabin era that it was a mistake to have a narrow government relying on its Arab members to squeeze through Knesset confidence votes. But having lost the Jewish majority before his departure, the prime minister's critics will insist that the results of the Camp David summit are illegitimate. Undoubtedly, Barak will reject such assertions, pointing to his promise to hold a national referendum.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A decision whether to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at a reconvened Camp David Summit may be made next Wednesday, but as it stands now, the prospects seem very uncertain. President Bill Clinton is scheduled to hold separate meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat during the United Nations special Millennium Summit. Mindful of an array of ticking clocks, Washington would like to reconvene Camp David for a short and final session sometime during the second half of September. Yet, given the failure of the last summit in July, a generally recognized precondition for a revival of summitry is the prior resolution of almost all outstanding issues between the parties, in order to virtually guarantee the success of renewed negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the aftermath of Camp David II and with the start of the Knesset summer recess yesterday, there appears to be a 40-90 day "window" for Israelis and the Palestinians to determine whether a diplomatic breakthrough is still possible or whether the parties will move in alternative directions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As violence rocked the West Bank and Gaza, Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak was scoring a significant parliamentary victory Monday. By a 56-48 margin, the Knesset approved transfer of three Palestinian villages on the outskirts of Jerusalem, including Abu Dis, from partial to full control by the Palestinian Authority (PA). An endorsement of Barak's peace process approach, the vote also stemmed a growing perception that the prime minister is hopelessly captive to the escalating, conflicting demands of recalcitrant coalition partners.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Jerusalem, Gaza, and Arab Countries

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks getting underway in Eilat this weekend, the Middle East seems to be switching peace tracks yet again. After President Bill Clinton held separate White House meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat earlier this month, State Department spokesman James Rubin said, "In our judgment, the next six to eight weeks could well be a decisive phase in the pursuit of peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis. . . . That phase obviously is now including a more intensive American involvement." This shift—after several months of focusing on Syria talks—does not necessarily mean that the Syrian track can be considered dead and buried (and indeed Arab leaders such as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah are said to be quietly seeking to revive that track). Yet, operationally, it means that the United States and Israel will no longer wait for Syria as they revive the Palestinian track and plan for Israel's pullback from Lebanon in July.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to defend itself from the international border with Lebanon. The target date is also a deadline for the negotiations with the Syrians, as nine years after the peace conference in Madrid we are likely to witness either a breakthrough or a breakdown.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

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