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11. India and Pakistan’s Fissile Material and Nuclear Weapons Inventory, end of 1998

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Estimating the size of India and Pakistan’s inventory of separated weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) has become more difficult following their nuclear tests in May, 1998. Both countries treat these numbers as highly classified, partly because such estimates provide a direct indication of the number of nuclear weapons they possess. In the case of Pakistan, what can be surmised is that it has resumed full-scale production of HEU, following a declared moratorium on such production since 1991. Abdul Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program, announced soon after the Pakistani tests that his country had never stopped making HEU. Although his comment has been greeted skeptically, it indicates that Pakistan may have resumed making weapon-grade uranium well before its tests in May, 1998.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

12. Fact Sheet: India and Pakistan—Current and Potential Nuclear Arsenals

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The decision by India to conduct five nuclear tests in May 1998 threatens to spark an all-out nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan have developed the capability to produce unsafeguarded weapon-grade plutonium and weapon-grade uranium (WGU) for nuclear weapons. However, until now, both countries have constrained their nuclear competition, preferring to keep their arsenals undeployed. In addition, Pakistan decided in the early 1990s to stop producing weapon-grade uranium, in essence capping its stock of material for nuclear weapons. India is widely perceived to have a significantly larger nuclear arsenal than Pakistan. The following estimate shows that if a nuclear arms race developed between India and Pakistan and Pakistan decided to resume WGU production, India’s overwhelming advantage could disappear.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Competition
Political Geography:
Pakistan and India