Author: Caspar Fithin / Political Geography: Middle East

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: President Mohammed Khatami was re-elected on June 8 by a huge margin. Khatami's supporters are already talking about a renewed campaign for reform under a reorganised cabinet and a reinvigorated Majlis. However, the obstacles to such a programme remain formidable. Khatami is likely to press a little more strongly for reform, especially in the economic field. However, doubts remains that he or his parliamentary colleagues have the means to use the renewed mandate provided by the election to press for radical change. Any change is therefore likely to modest and incremental, though, in the Iranian context, significant.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Israel last week launched an air raid against a Syrian radar station in Lebanon. The air raid has raised the stakes in the low-level military confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel. It has also exacerbated Lebanese internal divisions and exposed the lack of a national consensus on Hizbollah's cross-border operations. The Israeli raid has set a precedent and raised the stakes in Tel Aviv's confrontation with Hizbollah along the Lebanese border. Although neither Syria nor Israel is interested in a military confrontation, there are no guarantees that the situation will not spin out of control and lead to a limited regional conflict.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: United Nations peacekeeping forces are expected to deploy to the Lebanese-Israeli international border soon. Considerable diplomatic efforts have been required to win 'acceptance' of the border by Beirut and Tel Aviv, and thereby enable UN deployment to the area from which Israel withdrew nearly two months ago. The United Nations is likely to find it even more difficult to implement the other terms of its mandate.
Topic:: Security and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

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