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2. Putin’s Next, Best Move – The Logic and Limits of Russian Action on Ukraine
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Moscow will act when and if it declares that the West has escalated contention rather than responding positively to its entreaties – principally those regarding NATO expansion and implementation of the Minsk II agreement. Recent, new US/NATO troop deployments and weapon transfers to Ukraine may already count as relevant escalation. Russian forces surrounding Ukraine stand at an exceptionally high level of readiness and significantly exceed the scale of previous deployments. Nonetheless, a full-scale invasion aiming to seize the whole of Ukraine is highly unlikely. Indeed, Russian action may involve no more than large-scale conveyance of weapons and munitions to the rebel areas, possibly along with an influx of “volunteers.” Several other options ranging between these two are discussed below.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
3. And So Now… It’s War?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The battle within Ukraine and the USA-Russia contest over it has returned Europe to the darkest, most ominous period of the 1947-1989 Cold War. That this should happen with both the United States and Russia barreling grimly forward reflects a singular failure of diplomacy and common sense. There were two recent points in time when positive leadership might have turned us away from the path of disaster. Fortunately, one of these is not yet foreclosed. Movement toward resolution begins with recognizing that all sides, all stakeholders share fault for the current crisis. And no side has told the whole truth of it. Without question, Russian intervention in Ukraine’s civil conflict violates international law. Although Russia has the right to defend itself from attack, this proviso does not apply in the current situation. The annexation of Crimea was illegal, as is Russian intervention in the Donbass. This is indisputable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
4. Afghanistan: What Just Happened? What Comes Next?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- in short order, a 20-year $1.2 trillion US effort at nation-building evaporated, disintegrated, went up in smoke. And while unreconstructed interventionists pummel President Biden for surrendering Afghanistan, the truth is that we never had it. What we held instead was a hollow construct of our own imagination and creation – a client pseudo-state. And when it was finally and fully tested, it (for the most part) threw down its arms and ran away. In a sense, the sudden collapse of Kabul’s government and security services provides the surest litmus test of America’s 20-year enterprise in Afghanistan. It tells us that coercive nation-building by a foreign power – indeed, an alien power – is an impossible mission. Outsiders lack the knowledge, indigenous roots, legitimacy, and degree of interest to succeed against local resistance. Their very presence is provocative, especially given differences of language, religion, and culture. It’s as likely to spur resistance as it is to quell it. At the same time, such interventions risk becoming intractable given domestic political dynamics and Washington’s fixation on preserving its superpower reputation, its claim to being the “indispensable power”.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Taliban, Conflict, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
5. Afghanistan: The Fog at the End of the Tunnel
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- What is causing the uncertainty about when US ground forces will exit Afghanistan. The Biden administration insists that logistical factors explain its breach of the 2020 US-Taliban agreement, which reset the exit date from May to September. Logistical factors are also supposed to explain why the date may now be walked back to July. Actually, logistical issues explain neither. Using current data and historical precedent, this short analysis shows why. An alternative explanation for the delay is that it gave Washington more time to pursue some of its unfinished goals regarding Afghanistan. In this, the lingering troop presence serves as leverage. What goals? Improve Kabul’s military posture, polish plans and preparations for US forces to “fight from afar,” and pursue dramatic new international initiatives aiming to lock the Taliban into a cease-fire, peace settlement, and government reform plan substantially defined by the USA. This high risk-gambit won’t succeed, but it might prolong the conflict and America’s involvement in it.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, War, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Taliban, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America
6. Sustainable Defense: More Security, Less Spending
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The United States must partner with other nations in addressing challenges like climate change, epidemics of disease, nuclear proliferation, and human rights and humanitarian crises. None of these challenges are best dealt with by military force. Rather, they will depend on building non-military capacities for diplomacy, economic assistance, and scientific and cultural cooperation and exchange which have been allowed to languish in an era in which the military has been treated as the primary tool of U.S. security policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Economy, Sustainability, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
7. Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Why the inadvertent effects of the war are now overtaking the intended ones. Includes appendices addressing: the war’s impact on the humanitarian crisis; the missing political framework for American action; the source of power and the strategy of the Taliban; and the limits of the Bonn agreement and the challenges facing the interim government.
- Topic:
- Government, Treaties and Agreements, War, Taliban, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Operation Enduring Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America
8. Dueling with Uncertainty: The New Logic of American Military Planning
- Author:
- Carl Conetta and Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 02-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Examines how the new planning concepts and methods adopted by the Pentagon since 1992 have led to military requirements disproportionate to real threats and have supported overweening ambitions for the application of military power. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as “Inventing Threats.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
9. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America
10. The Development of America’s post-Cold War Military Posture: A Critical Appraisal
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- This article outlines the factors influencing and distorting military planning (with special attention to the 1992-1996 period.) In the early years of the post-Cold War era, the US defense establishment set out to formulate a new military posture. This was supposed to reflect the new strategic environment and pursue the opportunities afforded by advances in information technology. The result, however, was a “new” posture closely resembling the old, writ somewhat smaller. It was to be progressively bolstered by cutting-edge technology inputs. However, while remarkably expensive, these inputs would only partially fulfill their promise, while exhibiting varying degrees of reliability and sustainability. Soon the USA would be spending as much and more inflation-adjusted dollars on its armed forces as during the Cold War. Also driving requirements and budgets upward would be the adoption of new strategic goals, roles, and missions exceeding those of the Cold War period. Over subsequent decades, the tension between purported military requirements and resources constraints would grow acute, while the armed forces found themselves over-extended worldwide and mired in seemingly endless wars, despite their presumed (and costly) advantages. How did US defense policy come to this point? The Development of America’s post-Cold War Military Posture shows how dysfunctional planning assumptions and processes can easily lead to dysfunctional policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Cold War, Science and Technology, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America