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1. 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Brief Independent Review

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
he Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Azerbaijan presented the draft of the 2020 State Budget. According to the document, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Azerbaijan is expected to decline by 2020. The draft State Budget takes the expected cost per barrel in 2020 as US $55. Despite the fact that it is US $5 less than the previous year’s price, it doesn’t fully ensure related risks. Thus, CESD suggests to take US $50 per barrel for the state budget next year.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, GDP, and Finance
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

2. The CESD Assessment on the 2017 State Budget Project

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
According to the legislation on the Budget system, the legislative project on the state budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2017 and the state and consolidated budget projects of 2017 were publicized on 29th of September, 2016. It has been three years that the legislative projects on the consolidated and state budgets of the Republic of Azerbaijan are being prepared amidst the absence of positive economic trends for the country. Specifically, during the preparation of 2017 state budget, external and internal economic impacts were considered at greater extent. As in previous years, the Center for Economic and Social Development has prepared a comparative analysis of the budget project publicized by the government. It is to be mentioned that, during the preparation of the analysis, the conversion of indicators into the foreign (US dollars) currency is carried out according to annual average currency indicators published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, whereas the conversion of 2016 indicators into US dollars is conducted in accordance with the average exchange rate of first 8 months (1 US Dollars = 1, 56 manat) and 2017 indicators in accordance with the official exchange rate dated 29th September 2016 (1 US dollars = 1.6252 manat). The comparison of the budget project with previous years plays a prominent role in the forecasting of socio-economic trends for next year and the determination of state fiscal policy and the short-term and strategic position of the government in separate directions.
Topic:
Budget and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

3. Currency market in Azerbaijan: Why the national currency is losing its value?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
It has already been three month since the national currency of the Republic of Azerbaijan continuously loses its value. Since the second half of 2014, due to the fall in oil prices on the world markets, the resulting pressure on the national currency – ‘Manat’ is ongoing nowadays. Overall, Manat lost 49.6% of its value in 2015 and in addition, with more 3% depreciation in the first 7 months of 2016, the losses could reach 52.6%. Although the occurring rapid dollarization and the observed stagnation in the business environment especially in imports in the first months of 2015 and 2016 resulted in short-term reduction in foreign exchange demand in March-May period of this year and strengthening the exchange rate of USD/AZN at the level of 1.49, the process of depreciation proceeded again afterwards. As a result, the national currency increased its annual losses to the level of 3% in June-July, by depreciating 7% against the US dollar again.
Topic:
Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan