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1. Independent Assessment of the Implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This independent evaluation aims to investigate the implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan. The pandemic, which has lasted since 2020, has brought significant changes in the world. The changes in terms of both quality and quantity were reflected in the economic environment and individual's livelihood. Because of the requirement for long-term quarantine conditions to battle the pandemic, both developed and developing countries have experienced economic downturns. The research comprises forecast indicators defined by the appropriate executive authority during the year, as well as the draft legislation on 2020 state budget implementation, in addition to the forecast indicators represented in the material provided with the original and updated draft state budget for 2020. The basic order is as follows; introduction, revenues, expenditures, fiscal sustainability, sequestration of costs, cost reduction, receipt of subsidies from the budget, optimization of receivables, distribution of expenditures, and debts. The results included graphical and tabular descriptions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

2. The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In 2015, the expansion of the US economy accompanied with improved employment rates led the FED to switch to contractionary monetary policy. On the other hand, the second largest economic power-China encountered a lower long-term economic growth rate with a fall in exports, and thereby adversely affecting global economic activity. Moreover, the rapid decline of prices in global fuel markets, owing to fundamental and political reasons, resulted in an economic downturn in countries reliant on their fuel exports, while importers experienced a higher economic activity in parallel with lower inflation expectations. Since the monetary and economic policies were originally anchored to the oil price of 90 USD, the average of 53.4 USD resulted in an economic imbalance, and ultimately leading to the second sharp devaluation at the end of the year (21.12.2015). That is to say, the Central Bank could no longer pursue the fixed exchange rate regime, and switched to the floating regime.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

3. Devaluation of Azerbaijani National Currency; Causes and Consequences

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Starting on February 21st, 2015 the official exchange rate of the dollar to the manat, the Azerbaijani national currency, has been set at 1.05 manat, which is 33.86 percent higher than the exchange rate set prior to the beginning of the exchange rate weakening process. The Azerbaijani national currency has been depreciated against US dollar for the first time since 2006. Since the sharp drop of crude oil prices in the world market in the fall of 2014, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan has faced the dilemma of either a sharp depreciation or a gradual devaluation of the manat. In fact, the Central Bank has announced that a sharp depreciation would not be in the government’s agenda in the near future. But, just two days after the Central Bank’s governor’s official declaration on not having a sharp depreciation, the national currency of Azerbaijan has lost its value against major foreign currencies by 33.86 %. The Manat’s rate dropped to 1.05 from 0.78 against to US dollar.
Topic:
Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, Central Bank, and Currency
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

4. Evaluation and Modeling of Comparative Advantages in Agriculture in Azerbaijan

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The short history of transition to the economic model is based on the modern principles of the market and assurance to the trade surplus that was formed by natural resources within external trade. During previous periods in Azerbaijan these ones were considered the main causes for the shape of production and export opportunities according to the principles of comparative advantage. It is not a coincidence that the size of the non-oil sector does not even reach the 10% (7.4% in 2013) of the export. In addition, exports are approximately six times less than imports. Other important issues are the increase of citizen‟s welfare, the creation of a strong supply of food for the country, and the support of an effective use of a potential export through the use of agriculture, which is an essential part of Azeri employment (37.1% in 2013). Additionally, the agricultural sector needs to be more profitable in Azerbaijan. For the reasons mentioned above, the main aims of this research are to analyze the local characteristics of agriculture, to define the export possibilities and products that have comparative advantages in agriculture, and to research about countries in which there are more suitable market conditions and export opportunities. Moreover, the dependency of a country‟s financial stability on raw materials, especially oil and oil products, is going to form an international threat. On the other hand, providing sustainability in the Azerbaijani economy is currently one of the main duties of the government.
Topic:
Agriculture, Markets, Trade, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

5. Assessment of the Effect of Declining Oil Prices on Azerbaijan Economy

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The main goal of this study is to assess how the oil price decline in the world market will potentially impact the Azerbaijani Economy. The paper specifically looks at how last changes in the world market will affect both the revenue and expenditure sides of the state budget. The study also examines the “side impact” and “domino effects” of low oil prices.
Topic:
Markets, Oil, Economy, Economic Growth, and Currency
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

6. Azerbaijan’s foreign trade; Comparative Analysis

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The CESD report on Azerbaijan’s foreign trade analyzes challenges and current developments in this sector. The paper reviews how foreign trade relations changed particularly in terms of countries and commodities since the independency. Different sources are referenced in the report in order to comparatively illustrate existing circumstances in above mentioned sector,
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

7. Iran's Economy: On the Background of the New Sanctions

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
CESD has produced new paper on Iranian economy on the background of the new sanctions. The paper looks current situation of Iranian economy, potential impacts of new sanctions, Iranian relations with West, neighbors as well as with Azerbaijan. The paper also focuses on social and economic impacts of new sanctions not only on Iranian economy but also Iranian population.
Topic:
International Relations, Sanctions, Population, and Economy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus