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1. G7 Economic Cooperation in the Trump Era

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten, Edwin M. Truman, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper examines how G7 cooperation can be maintained in the Trump era. Its working assumption is that the US administration will remain open to international cooperation in principle and yet be constrained by Trump’s economic nationalism and specific campaign promises, such as reducing trade imbalances. The main finding is that useful areas for G7 macroeconomic, trade and financial cooperation continue to exist even after taking US constraints into account. At the same time, other G7 leaders need to be prepared to proceed on their own if attempts to convince the US administration that G7 economic cooperation is in the interests of all members fail. Paper presented at the international conference on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability. The Role of the G7”, organized in Rome on 27-28 March 2017 by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Addressing Currency Manipulation Through Trade Agreements

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A bipartisan majority in both Houses of Congress is insisting that the United States include a provision in future trade agreements that would bar currency manipulation. A letter from 60 senators to Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew and United States Trade Representative (USTR) Michael From an on September 23, 2013, called for "strong and enforceable foreign currency manipulation disciplines" in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while 230 members of the House of Representatives told President Barack Obama on June 6, 2013, that "it is imperative that (the TPP) address currency manipulation.to create a level playing field for American businesses and prevent more US jobs from being shipped overseas." The trade promotion authority (TPA) legislation proposed by congressional trade leaders on January 9, 2014, establishes the avoidance of currency manipulation as a "principal US negotiating objective" in its future trade agreements.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

3. Why the Euro Will Survive

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The euro's naysayers have it all wrong. True, the continent's powerhouses have yet to agree on a clear plan to save the common currency, as each one is seeking to secure the best deal for itself. But they all also know that the collapse of the eurozone would be a political and economic disaster, so they will ultimately pay whatever price is necessary to keep it together.
Topic:
Economics

4. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis: An Update

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Getting the diagnosis right is a prerequisite for understanding the euro area predicament and evaluating key decisions taken since early 2010. As we laid out in Bergsten and Kirkegaard (2012), while the euro area faces multiple overlapping and mutually reinforcing elements of fiscal (Greece), banking (Ireland/Spain), and competitiveness (Southern periphery) crises, it is first and foremost facing a crisis of institutional design. The common currency as designed in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 is a half-built house without the critical components of banking and fiscal union necessary to sustain it through the type of crushing economic and financial down- turn witnessed since October 2008.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
United States

6. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Pacific Asia and the Asia Pacific: The Choices for APEC

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum comprises 21 developed and developing economies that surround the Pacific Rim. The organization was created in 1989 and holds annual Leaders' Meetings that bring together its heads of government. In this policy brief, I assess the record of the APEC over the 20 years of its existence and discuss the world environment in which APEC is likely to be operating in the next 20 years, with a particular focus on the major change in global institutional arrangements implied by the replacement of the Group of Seven/Eight (G-7/8) by the Group of Twenty (G-20) as the chief steering committee for the world economy and, within that group and other international economic organizations, the increasingly central role of an informal and de facto Group of Two (G-2) between China and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

8. The Dollar and the Deficits

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The global economic crisis has revealed the folly of large U.S. budget and trade deficits, as well as of the strong dollar that makes them possible. If it is serious about recovery, the United States must balance the budget, stimulate private saving, and embrace a declining dollar.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

9. A Partnership of Equals

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Beijing is shirking its responsibilities to the global economy. To encourage better behavior, Washington should offer to share global economic leadership.
Political Geography:
Washington and Beijing

10. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia