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2. The Complexities of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Sea Access Deal
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- From 9 December 2023 to 19 January 2024, ACLED records nearly 300 political violence events and at least 726 reported fatalities in Somalia. Most political violence centered in Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab targeted security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Mudug region had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 412. Lower Juba region followed, with at least 121 reported fatalities. Most of the fatalities came after battles between al-Shabaab and security forces. The most common event type was battles, with over 500 events, followed by explosions and remote violence, with nearly 180 events. Most of the events involved clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, and Al Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa
3. Kenya: Women and Lawyers Demonstrate Nationwide
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- From 13 January to 16 February 2024, ACLED records 80 political violence events and 52 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Samburu county, which witnessed increased violence involving bandits who loot valuables, including cattle. Turkana county had the highest number of reported fatalities due to civilian targeting by unidentified gunmen during raiding. The most common event type was riots, with 35 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 events.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Women, Protests, Demonstrations, and Lawyers
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa
4. Violent Escalations in Myanmar’s Rakhine State | ACLED Insight
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In Myanmar, territorial gains made by resistance groups have often led to indiscriminate airstrikes by the military junta. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for calm in Rakhine state on 19 March 2024, and ACLED data show just how widespread the phenomenon has become. From 1 November 2023 until 8 March, the military carried out 588 airstrikes across Myanmar, of which 19% were against targets in Rakhine state. Of all strikes recorded in Rakhine so far, 34% have targeted civilians. In Rakhine, military airstrikes started around November 2023 after fighting broke out between the military and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) as a part of Operation 1027, launched by the Brotherhood Alliance in October 2023.
- Topic:
- Civilians, Armed Conflict, Junta, and Airstrikes
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Rakhine
5. One Year of War in Sudan
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April, ACLED records 5,550 events of political violence and more than 15,550 reported fatalities in Sudan. Between 15 April 2023 and 5 April 2024, the most political violence was recorded in Khartoum state, with over 3,660 events and over 7,050 reported fatalities.1 In all of Sudan, ACLED records over 1,400 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. Civilians in Khartoum state faced the most targeted violence, with more than 650 incidents and at least 1,470 reported fatalities. Targeted violence in Darfur was twice as likely to be deadly for civilians than targeted violence in other states in Sudan, with 32% of all reported civilian fatalities in the country being recorded in Darfur.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Armed Forces, Civilians, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
6. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
7. Beyond Mexico’s criminal gangs: Hybrid violence in Puebla, Mexico, and Veracruz states
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of 2024, reports of violent incidents targeting political figures have frequently made their way into the news in the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Veracruz. On 23 March, several armed men on motorcycles killed the mayoral candidate of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party running in Acatzingo municipality in Puebla, adding yet another victim to the list of candidates, current and former officials, relatives of politicians, and election officers who have been the targets of violence in recent months. These recent incidents are part of a repeated pattern of violence. Situated in central Mexico, the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Veracruz feature among the eight most affected by violence targeting political figures since 2018.
- Topic:
- Crime, Politics, Assassination, Gangs, and Hybrid Violence
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
8. After a year of war, Hamas is militarily weakened — but far from ‘eliminated’
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- One year after the onset of the current crisis in the Middle East, following Hamas’ deadly attack on southern Israel on 7 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow of “complete victory” and the “elimination” of Hamas as a threat to Israel1 remains unfulfilled. While Israeli officials claim that Hamas no longer exists as a military force in Gaza, ACLED data show that Hamas still retains some operational capabilities and continues to engage with Israeli forces across the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas has also escalated its military activities in the West Bank. With the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently having shifted focus to confronting Hezbollah in the north and no ceasefire in Gaza in sight, Hamas continues to remain a significant actor in Palestine despite its now-diminished military capabilities and the significant humanitarian toll on Palestinians in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Hamas, Humanitarian Crisis, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
9. Five key takeaways from the 2024 elections in Mexico
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 2 June, Claudia Sheinbaum, running for the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party, won the presidential election with almost 60% of votes, becoming the first female president in the country’s history. Alongside the presidential election, voters in Mexico concurrently participated in legislative, state, and municipal elections. The election was marred by assassinations and targeted attacks on candidates and other political figures. ACLED records over 330 incidents of violence targeting political figures during the election campaign, between the start of the federal campaign on 1 March and the voting day on 2 June. At least 95 incidents led to one or more reported deaths. The level of violence during this election campaign marks a record high that eclipses the violence recorded in the 2018 general and 2021 federal elections, which had 254 and 257 events, respectively. The heightened levels of violence during the 2024 campaign period also affected candidates who were not directly targeted in violent incidents. At least 553 candidates requested state protection after receiving threats,1 while others decided to withdraw from the race as a result of threats.2 Notwithstanding, none of the main presidential candidates have made substantial proposals to address this issue.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Assassination, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
10. Fighting deepens around El Fasher in Sudan, al-Shabaab loses territory in Somalia, and police crack down on tax-related protests in Kenya
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- A new major battle broke out in the North Darfur city of El Fasher, which has been surrounded since April by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). El Fasher is the only capital city in Darfur that is still controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SAF, backed by its allies, managed to conduct multiple offensive maneuvers on RSF strongholds in rural territories in North Darfur. During the clashes, the SAF claimed to have inflicted several casualties on the RSF, including killing the local operation commander. ACLED records at least 700 reported fatalities in connection with fighting around the city since the RSF began the attack on El Fasher on 10 April; around half of them — 320 — were recorded during the reporting period, 25 May to 21 June. Additionally, the violence has heavily hit health care facilities in North Darfur, causing them to go out of service and aggravating an already dire humanitarian situation. According to the Sudan Doctors’ Union, at least 4,000 people may have died from violence, diseases, and starvation in El Fasher alone.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Protests, Tax Systems, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Sudan
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