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1. Ukraine and its regions: Societal trends and policy implications

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since the Euromaidan Revolution, self-identification and attitudes within Ukrainian society have changed profoundly. This report takes stock of the identity changes both nationwide and in three major oblasts, namely Lviv, Kharkiv and Odesa, representing in this study the Western, Eastern and Southern regions of the country respectively, to identify new differences and unity points. To this end, the report focuses on two major issues, looking firstly at the trajectory of the identity shifts nationwide and in three key regions, and secondly, at their political effects. The question of the sustainability of the changes is also addressed. Taking the regional aspect into consideration is crucial given that cleavages have traditionally had a visible regional pattern, and that the identity shifts coincide with a realignment of centre-periphery relations within the context of the ongoing reforms, particularly decentralization. The report also furthers understanding of the potential risks – or lack thereof – of this process for the Ukrainian state. This publication is part of a research project “Ukraine after Euromaidan” conducted by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. The project is implemented with the financial support of the Nordic Council of Ministers 2020.
Topic:
Revolution, Local, Decentralization, Identity, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. Ukraine’s stalled transformation: A concerning context for the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the momentum for fundamental change that emerged in Ukraine after the Euromaidan revolution of 2014, the incumbent elites were able to safeguard many traditional mechanisms for extending their stay in power and effectively impeded the systemic transformation. After the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2019, Ukraine will face an increased risk of populism and radicalization of the political agenda on the one hand, and apathy and disengagement among the population on the other. In these circumstances, the West should be ready to increase its involvement in Ukraine, but also to step up conditionality in order to influence the behaviour of protectors of the old system, interacting more with the pro-reform constituency in Ukraine.
Topic:
Elections, Revolution, State Building, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

3. The Normandy Summit on Ukraine: no winners, no losers, to be continued

Author:
Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The French-German-Russian-Ukrainian top-level encounter could not and did not deliver a prospect of resolving the conflict in Donbas, but the limits of the possible are now clearer. No certainty, but the “draw” may push the parties closer to a sustainable ceasefire.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

4. Crimea 2.0: Will Russia seek reunification with Belarus?

Author:
Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While speculation about whether Russia may repeat the Crimean scenario in Belarus should not be totally dismissed, exaggerated alarmism would not be appropriate either. Rather, Moscow’s policy is aimed at making sure that Belarus and its leadership remain critically dependent on Russia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Empire, and Annexation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, and Crimea

5. Making a Difference - Why and how Europe should increase its engagement in Ukraine

Author:
Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fate of the transformation in Ukraine is important for Europe. If successful, Ukraine could positively affect the prospect of the systemic change in Russia and would serve as a linchpin of democratization and stabilization in the region stretching from Belarus to the Caspian Sea. A reformed and economically transparent Ukraine could play a significant role in Europe's strategy of diversifying its energy supplies. Since the Orange revolution, Ukraine has demonstrated progress in its reforms. The parliamentary elections in March 2006 confi rmed that the majority of the population remained supportive of further change. All in all, the country has a fair chance of succeeding. At the same time, the challenges are many and the transformation could still fail or stall, particularly if in Europe the reforms are viewed predominantly as a domestic Ukrainian issue, a “homework” rather than as a joint endeavour. European engagement in Ukraine should increase further. Europe could do more to transfer its expertise in transition and adaptation, to help Ukraine address its energy concerns and to make sure that the bilateral relations go beyond cooperation and develop into an integration pattern. Depending on the progress made, the question of Ukraine's EU membership might have to be addressed sooner or later as it has proved to be the most powerful tool for transformation.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine